Iranian Analyst Predicts Head-On Collision Between Raisi, Ghalibaf

Former lawmaker Gholam Ali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi wrote in an April 26 tweet: "I said in an interview with Didban Iran website that further to Ghalibaf family's luxury layette shopping spree in Turkey, they have also bought two apartments in Istanbul in the name of Ghalibaf's son-in-law."

The former lawmaker continued: "Instead of offering an explanation or apology, Ghalibaf has filed a complaint against me. There needs to be an open court that would also investigate the cases of Ghalibaf's [8 trillion rial corruption] case about the Tehran Municipality,” and the case involving [former IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari's leaked tape about Ghalibaf's involvement in a major corruption case.

Imanabadi had said in the interview with Didban Iran: "The person who has bought two apartments for 20 million Turkish Liras in one of Turkey's best neighborhood as well as 20 suitcase-full of layettes, has undermined the regime's prestige and should be removed from positions of power at once."

Subsequently, an advisor to Ghalibaf told the media that the Speaker will definitely file a complaint against Imanabadi.

Didban Iran reporter Nazila Maroofian wrote in a tweet: "Ghalibaf's aides have threatened us [about the interview] and at the same time they have filed a complaint against Imanabadi."

The website was not accessible Wednesday morning.

Earlier, Ian International TV and the Independent in Persian had reported that Ghalibaf's family had paid 400 billion rials ($1.6 million) to buy two apartments in Turkey.

Mahmoud Razavi, an adviser to Ghalibaf has characterized the revelations about the apartments in Turkey as "a new dimension of a security and political project." He suggested that those who have the evidence about the purchase at their disposal should hand them over to Imanabadi so that he could defend himself in court.

Razavi had said earlier that the disclosures "were part of a security project carried out by a security organization." He added that the project aimed to eliminate Qalibaf as a rival.

Ghalibaf hass so far kept silent about his family's visit to Turkey. However, his aides and supporters including the hardliner daily Kayhan which is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office, Parviz Sorouri, a deputy chief of the Tehran City Council and a few Iranian lawmakers have harshly attacked his detractors.

On the other hand, Vahid Ashtari, the whistle-blower who first revealed the story, wrote in a tweet: "One week after returning from Turkey, they still cannot offer any explanation. They are not brave enough to apologize or to deny the reports."

Some media outlets in Iran, however, have accused the Raisi administration of spreading the news about Ghalibaf's family's luxury shopping because of the administration's differences with the speaker. However, they have not given any details to back their accusations.

Khamenei and his office have so far been cautiously silent about the scandal. Iran International analyst Morad Veisi wrote in a tweet on Tuesday: "Khamenei and his office's policy about Ghalibaf's family's controversial visit to Turkey has been one of not clearly supporting Ghalibaf or his critics. Regardless of Ghalibaf's corruption, Khamenei likes his loyalty and his preparedness to suppress protestors at any given time. [The motto is:] Be loyal and supress. Who cares if you ae corrupt?"

Former lawmaker Gholam Ali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi told Nameh News website in Tehran on Tuesday that the Iranian government has already collapsed, and it will be too late when President Raisi finds out what his advisers have done to the country and the government."

Imanabadi, a moderate-conservative politicians, charged that "Iran has 6 Presidents." He explained that Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has pushed out the Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaei, and Vice President for Executive Affairs Solat Mortazavi from the government's Economic Commission, but to wat extent can this measure make Raisi's economic team efficient?"

He charged that while the current economic crisis is the country's most important issue, Raisi knows very little about the economy and his team is still extremely weak and uncoordinated."

Imanabadi said that "all the 6 contestants in the 2021 Presidential election, including Raisi are members of the Raisi Administration." He added: "In other words, the government has 6 presidents, like the proverb 'Too many chiefs and few Indians' ".

"All the existing evidence points to differences in the government's economic team," he said, asking "How can the vice president for economic affairs not be a member of the government's economic team?"

Imanabadi explained: "The is so much pressure on Raisi and he cannot do anything other than make more promises because his economic team does not help him. Planning and Budget Chief Massoud Mirkazemi does whatever pleases him regardless of Raisi’s promises to the people and Mokhber is a big bluffer. We still remember that he said: Five big countries are buying [Covid] vaccines from Iran."

The lawmaker charged that while everything in the country's economy is linked to the nuclear deal, and every interview with Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian raises the exchange rate for the US dollar by 10,000 rials, Raisi still insists that he will not tie the fate of the economy to the nuclear deal (JCPOA).

What the lawmaker did not mention, is the fact that trying to publicly minimize the impact of US sanctions is a regime-wide policy imposed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Meanwhile, Political analyst Ali Mohammad Namazi has said in an interview that "If the current situation continues, widespread protests are likely in Iran." Namazi stressed that the Iranian government should reach a nuclear agreement with the United States as soon as possible."

Namazi warned that Iran's treasury is almost broke and the government is not even able to make overdue payments." He exclaimed "Why there is still no nuclear agreement while the economic situation is getting increasingly difficult?"

He quoted other analysts as saying that nothing has changed in the new draft nuclear agreement compared to the one prepared under President Hassan Rouhani," last year and suggested that "The government should be determined to sign the final agreement without insisting on irrelevant matters. But the negotiating team is more focused on symbolic moves rather than on technically down-to-the-point negotiations."

He was implicitly referring to Tehran’s demand for removing the IRGC from the US list of terrorist organizations that have halted the Vienna talks.

Namazi said, "a final agreement will bring about an economic breakthrough that would lead to releasing Iran's frozen assets and facilitate oil normal oil exports. Non-nuclear sanctions can be left for a future when the two sides can have discussions beyond the nuclear issue."

The official Telegram channel of the Revolutionary Guard was strangely one of the first to report that Senior Vice President Mohammad Mokhber had dismissed two members of Raisi's Economic Commission: Vice President for Executive Affairs Solat Mortazavi and Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaei.

The announcement sounded odd enough as Rezaei is a vice president after all. The other oddity was the discrepancy between the letter signed by Mokhber, which indicated that the dismissal was based on several articles of the law, and the statement of government spokesman Ali Bahadori who said the two were relieved of their responsibilities at their own request.

Monday evening both the government spokesman and Rezaei denied the reports, insisting that no change has taken place in the government's economic team.

But based on the letter reported in Tehran media dated April 20, the decision to get rid of the two was made on March 27. Iranian media have approached the story in a way to indicate that Rezaei may no longer be part of Raisi's team altogether.

Rezaei was initially introduced by Raisi last year as the chairman of the commission. Like all Raisi rivals in the 2021 presidential election, Rezaei was also given a good post. However, the difference was that he was the only one who was not linked to any political group or party.

When he joined Raisi's economic team, he thought that he would be leading the team. Soon, it was made bitterly clear to him that Mokhber oversaw the team. The first sign came in December when Rezaei announced that cash handouts to citizens will be doubled. Mokhber ordered Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi to refute the statement in half an hour.

It was clear then, though maybe not for Rezaei, that he was appointed to the post of vice president as a sign of courtesy by Raisi as he had paid the same courtesy to all other presidential contestants.

In the meantime, almost everyone in Iran has been criticizing Raisi and his team for the worsening economic situation. Rezaei's dismissal, if true, could be something to prove that the president finally decided to act. The other man, Mortazavi, was probably dismissed only to make sure that the measure would not look like an action against Rezaei.

However, some say that as Mortazavi headed the State Employment Organization, his opposition on legal grounds to some of administration’s appointments cost him his job.

Hamid Hosseini, an economist in Tehran, told Nameh News that several people in the economic team wanted to be its leader: Mokhber, Rzaei, Khandouzi, and Planning and Budget Chief Massoud Mirkazemi. This was part of the struggle that has so far led to jettisoning Rezaei. The economic team's other problems are caused by managing problematic officials such as Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmalehi and Housing Minister Rostam Ghassemi.

Speculations about Rezaei's future, in case of dismissal from the Economic Commission, include leaving him to resign from the government altogether or allowing him to wander in the administration without assigning him any task or sending him back to the Expediency Council where he was the secratary. Another option is giving a job outside the administration only to save face for the former commander-in-chief of the IRGC.

According to ultraconservative former lawmaker Hossein Naghavi Hosseini, the government is under pressure to make a change in its economic team. Rezaei's possible dismissal would be the first change, and further changes are likely to be introduced at the Central Bank, the Ministry of Industry, and the Ministry of Economy.

They point out that the hardliner president cannot have any political excuses because all power is concentrated in the hands of Iran’s conservative, loyalist camp.

In an article in the reformist daily Etemad, economic columnist Albert Boghossian reminded readers that during the presidential election campaign in 2017 when Ebrahim Raisi and Hassan Rouhani were the leading candidates, Raisi suggested a debate with Rouhani "to put an end to blaming previous governments for current problems."

Apparently, Raisi wanted to defend the performance of ultraconservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who had preceded Rouhani and stop the incumbent president from blaming Ahmadinejad for the shortcomings during his first term of office (2013-2017).

However, the Boghossian observed that Raisi is still blaming his predecessor for the ongoing economic problems of Iran. He pointed out that this is because Iran lacks a growth model and a sustainable development plan. With such a plan, the coming and going of various governments will not dramatically affect the country's growth and successive governments will not behave diagonally different from each other.

The article argued that the Raisi administration still has not offered a strategic plan, nine months after taking office.

The price of one kilogram of rice which was 300,000 ($1.20) rials at the beginning of Raisi's term of office is now 1,100,000 rials ($4.40). Likewise, the price of one kilogram of meat has risen from 1,300,000 rials to 2 million rials ($8). The cheapest Iranian-made car, Pride, which is an unsafe 1990s compact model, was sold for 1,400,000,000 rials when Raisi took office in August 2021. Its price is over 2,100,000,000 rials ($8,400) now.

Thus, this trend shows that not only Raisi has not been able to harness rising inflation, but its inability to offer a development plan has further worsened the economic situation, Boghossian argued.

However, the article, like many others, made no mention of the diplomatic deadlock in resolving Iran’s nuclear and other disputes with the United States and the serious impact American sanctions have on the worsening economic crisis.

Meanwhile, conservative daily Jomhuri Eslami on Sunday carried a commentary by Gholamreza Bani Asadi, who criticized Raisi for failing to follow the teachings of Shite imams in running the affairs of the state.

"How can those who constantly create problems for the people and instil anxiety in their everyday life prove that they are the followers of Imam Ali, the first imam of the Shiites sect?" asked Bani Asadi without naming Raisi. The writer then accused today's officials of boasting about their plans before their election and blaming previous governments for problems in the people's livelihood.

He wrote: "Of course the previous governments are partly responsible for the problems, but all the roads have been left open for you to tackle the problems. What happened to all those claims about defeating the world powers?"

He added: "You are still instilling anxiety among the people and the workforce even worse than the previous government. Was this how you wanted to amaze the whole world with your performance?"

The writer added that the outcome of the government's inability to solve the country's economic problems can be seen on social media where one can witness how Iranian's belief in God has weakened. "And while the people are looking for transparency and honesty, you are simply trying to restrict their access to social media," the Jomhouri Eslami observed.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in a meeting with government representatives on Sunday said, “Rising prices in the country have become indefensible,” and “people face hardship.”

A scandal broke on April 20 when videos and images emerged that Ghalibaf’s wife and daughter visited Turkey and allegedly bought luxury items for the baby his daughter expects. His son and chief aide tried to smooth things over by apologizing but the Speaker remained silent.

A journalist also made a more serious allegation that the family bought two luxury apartments while in Istanbul for $1.6 million.

Many politicians and ordinary Iranians have criticized Ghalibaf, some even calling for his resignation as he and other top officials constantly speak of ‘resistance economy’ and people’s resilience in the face of United States’ sanctions, but their families take foreign trips for shopping.

The scandal has also revealed a rift among ‘revolutionary’ hardliners or “principlists” as some like to call themselves. Reports in the media say that ultra-hardliners in the parliament representing the Paydari group may have even been involved in exposing the Ghalibaf family’s trip to Turkey.

Vahid Ashtari, a journalist who first revealed the scandal, is considered a “principlist” who say they campaign for justice.

But other hardliners have come to Ghalibaf’s defense, attacking his critics. One hardliner quipped that “The enemy has planned to weaken unity among government institutions,” a reference that conservatives and hardliners control both the presidency and the legislature. He added that “The revolutionary forces are more alert than to be deceived by these kinds of conspiracies.”

Mohammad Aghamiri, another hardliner, tried to defend Ghalibaf by saying that his family went to Turkey “with four bags and returned with five,” while Ashtari insists he has evidence the family returned with more than 20 pieces of luggage.

Aghamiri went on to say that there is nothing wrong with a young enthusiastic couple travelling to Turkey “and buying a few things that were on sale.”

However, critics ask how Ghalibaf’s family can afford a foreign trip and luxury shopping when the Iranian currency has substantially dropped, and many people do not have enough food to eat.

Ghalibaf has been involved in numerous financial corruption cases over the years, especially during his tenure as Tehran mayor from 2005-2017. As a former Revolutionary Guard general, in many of his corruption cases there is a thread connecting to other high ranking IRGC figures, including Qasem Soleimani, the Qods Force commander killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad in 2020.

Fars news agency affiliated with the IRGC attacked Vahid Ashtari and others who have exposed and pursued Ghalibaf’s scandal. “Psychologists believe that an identity crisis and an urge to be noticed…” leads to “deviations”, it said.

The ultra-hardliner Kayhan newspaper financed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the scandal is the creation of “anti-revolutionaries abroad”, reformists and “deviant forces”, an indirect reference to followers of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Paydari group in parliament is made up of mostly former Ahmadinejad officials, although the former president has not spoken about the scandal.

Some lawmakers have also insisted that the revelations about Ghalibaf are a “political and security project” aimed at damaging his reputation and political standing.

Ashtari has responded on Twitter, telling Ghalibaf’s supporters to end duplicity in their lives “and everything will be solved.”