No hope For A Miracle In Iran, Says Reformist Activist

In an interview with Bazaar website on Monday, Mehdi Dadar, secretary of car importers' association, said buyers in the Iranian market are critical of a ban on importing cars behind which, he alleged, lies a 'mafia group', as authorities do nothing to correct the situation.

Dadar accused policymakers of indirectly supporting Chinese auto parts manufacturers and turning the industry into "assemblers of Chinese parts". He alleged that powerful importers of car parts are behind government opposition to importing cars.

Iran's quasi-government automotive industry, the county’s largest after oil and gas, employs 700,000 workers. Iran annually makes nearly 1.5 million vehicles. The sector is in debt for billions of dollars and is a large burden for the government and its banks.

The issue of the ban on car imports introduced in 2018 became very controversial last week when lawmakers realized that their approval for the government to provide foreign currency to importers for 70,000 cars had been eliminated from the budget from the budget.

During their debate over the budget earlier, lawmakers had agreed to the government's plan to allow importing 70,000 cars in the next 12 months to augment tax revenues. The budget bill, however, set a condition that the cost of the imported cars would not exceed 25,000 per unit.

According to the official news agency IRNA, the omission was made with the knowledge of the parliament's presidium and Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf because they knew the constitutional watchdog, the Expediency Council would oppose it.

Critics, however, say that the Expediency Council and another watchdog, the Guardian Council, should not have intervened in a practical matter, and allege outside influences played a role in the interference.

Minister of industries, mines, and trade, Reza Fatemi-Amin, on March 13 claimed that the ban on car imports was a consequence of shortage of foreign currency rather than a measure to support domestic producers and the ban would be lifted soon.

Iran Khodro and Saipa, the two largest automakers, have a monopoly in the Iranian market.

Critics say by protecting automakers' interests in many ways, including by eliminating foreign competitors, successive Iranian administrations have become complicit in putting innocent people's lives in danger.

Road Police officials have repeatedly warned about inadequate safety standards of domestic cars. Speaking to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) in October, Deputy Chief of Iran's traffic police, Brigadier-General Taymour Hosseini said road accidents were occurring due to inadequate safety standards as Iranian companies struggled to keep up with cost and parts sourcing. "Big companies in the world are working on intelligent cars but we have dropped our expectations so much that we are happy with having anti-lock braking systems,” he said.

In an interview on March 24 with Hamshahri Online, chief of Iran's road and traffic police, Brigadier General Kamal Hadianfar, criticized manufacturers for importing car parts from China, saying there is no effective quality control in the industry.

After two massive vehicle collisions involving tens of cars in southwestern Iran in January during which the cars' airbags failed to open, Hadianfar called domestically produced cars "carriages of death".

Speaking to the official news agency IRNA Sunday, Mehdi Ghazanfari, chairman of the executive board of Iran's sovereign wealth fund (NDF), criticized governments, past and present, for taking a larger share from the fund's reserves than they were allowed by law.

Ghazanfari said that governments should not rely on the NDF to supplement their budget, but they always resort to taking money from the fund when they face problems. "The fund's resources should increase to the level that it can provide the country's budget if we are not able to sell gas and oil."

The fund aims to turn some of the country's petrodollars to durable wealth, productivity, economic incentive and capital and preserve wealth from oil and gas for future generations.

The budget bill presented by President Ebrahim Raisi's government to parliament on December 12 proposed to save only 20 percent of oil revenues and transfer the other 20 percent, which should have been given to the fund, to the government.

But Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose authorization was required, refused to allow the government to borrow from the fund to supplement its budget. Borrowing from the fund would mean printing Iranian rials and spending it in the country, further fueling inflation, which now stands at around 40 percent.

Based on the country's fifth and sixth five-year socio-economic development plans, the percentage of the fund's share from oil revenues has grown from 20 percent to 40 percent since 2011 when the fund was established.

Ghazanfari said the fund is now seriously seeking to recoup all the past loans paid to various government organizations, such as the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).

He also suggested that the fund's articles of association need to be revised so that the fund extends 30 percent of its resources to private, cooperative, and non-governmental sectors as loans, and ideally even use the 20 percent share of the government to help the private sector.

The remaining 50 percent of the fund's resources must be used for investment, he said, adding that they are also considering a revision in the conditions for offering loans in the future.

Like the currency reserve fund established in 2000, all administrations have borrowed from the fund for various purposes, including 2 billion euros in 2019 to increase the military's budget. The administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad borrowed heavily from the fund which had been handed over to him with over $24 billion, including $2.7 billion to pay New Year cash handouts to all Iranians in 2013.

In 2008, the Ahmadinejad government classified information about the fund. In 2013, the newly elected President Hassan Rouhani said the fund had completely been drained by his predecessor. There is currently no concrete information on the fund's assets, but it is clear billions have been withdrawn since 2018 when the United States abandoned the 2015 nuclear agreement and imposed sanctions.

According to the charter of the National Development Fund, 40 percent of oil revenues next year should be saved by the government in the fund for investment on productive economic activities that would guarantee the welfare of future generations.

Addressing a crowd of his supporters in Washington Township, Michigan, on Saturday, Trump said Biden is not even reviewing the new nuclear deal and has let Russia and China to lead the Vienna talks, calling it “stupid”.

"So, we have Russia negotiating the deal – with China as a backup – how stupid is this country. They are so stupid”, he said, adding that “the deal is turning out to be a disaster. Nobody can even believe it. But we're giving everything away – all the things that we fought for with Iran."

Trump, who in 2018 withdrew from the Obama-era deal -- officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, added that his administration would have made a new agreement. "Within one week after we took office, they would have made a deal. They were so ready to make a deal."

He slammed Biden’s policy toward Iran, saying, “We had all the cards. We still have cards – if they knew how to play them, they still have cards”.

Most of the Republicans and former administration officials denounce Biden’s policies regarding the Middle East and particularly Iran, however, Biden’s administration says Trump’s decision to abandon the JCPOA led Iran to intensify its nuclear program and aggressive actions in the region.

According to news website Nameh News, different conservative factions have already started to compete within their camp and apparently there are at least three main players lined up for the February 2024 elections.

Moderate conservatives (such as Ali Larijani), ultraconservatives (Paydari and pro-Ahmadinejad groups such as most of the current members of the parliament), and current Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with his ‘neo-cons’ are the main factions.

Hardliner politician Seyyed Hossein Naghavi Hosseini told Nameh News that some of the conservative political groups have already organized election committees for their campaigns. However, he claimed that conservatives will take part in the election as a single front.

This has been their promise since 2007, but conservatives never managed to present themselves as a consolidated front in any election. This appears to be the case for 2024.

Nameh News wrote that even now, former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani is planning for the next election independent of other conservatives, adding that he has a good chance as most people believe he is a logical and capable person who can bring about a change in the country's politics.

The Raisi factor

Naghavi said that the next parliamentary election will be deeply affected by President Ebrahim Raisi's success or failure. People will welcome hardliner conservative candidates if they believe Raisi has been successful, otherwise they will opt to vote for others. He claimed that even now Larijani and his like-minded candidates enjoy support.

Larijani's political allies are also active players in the media and their main activity is criticizing the Raisi administration and the current parliament.

The politician argued that the main rivalry will take place between the Larijani camp and current Majles Speaker Ghalibaf.

Raisi, who was Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's choice as president, so far has left a dismal record in managing the economy and the hardliner camp that has supported him might loose its value for the regime.

Reformists’ option is Larijani

Moderates and reformists may also be willing to take part in the elections, but it is still not known who will be leading them.

In another report, Nameh News pointed out that the situation has changed since Larijani was disqualified by the Guardian Council and barred from the 2021 presidential election.

The report added that Iran's moderates and reformists will also not be able to find any political ally and leader in the next election other than Ali Larijani. Meanwhile, even among the conservatives, there are many voters who would welcome the Larijani-led right-of-center faction to replace the far right "principlists" who currently control the Majles.

Even Iran's reformist analysts such as Abbas Abdi have backed the idea of Larijani becoming the leader of Iran's moderate conservatives. Nameh News quoted him as saying that "This is Ali Larijani and Iran's traditional conservatives' last chance to come back into the spotlight. Without a figurehead such as Larijani, that would be the end of the traditional conservatives who were side-lined in the 2021 presidential election partly for the same reason."

Some Conservatives might flip

Since his disqualification in June 2021, Larijani has tried hard not to create any controversy and has successfully evaded regime redlines, most importantly, turning against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In the meantime, as Nameh News has observed, what is certain, is that most current lawmakers are likely to turn against Raisi to distance themselves from his failures. They would want to make sure that increasing dissatisfaction with his performance does not ruin their chance of re-election. Some might even shift to Larijani's camp.

The fate of elections in Iran is determined by the conservative-dominated Guardian Council that can say who can and who cannot run in the fist place. But once the candidates have the Council’s and Khamenei's blessing, it is the man in the street whose votes they need.

In a letter to the police commander-in-chief Hossein Ashtari, Mohammad Jafar Montazeri pointed out that vehicles are not private property, meaning that any eating and drinking inside cars in public places should not take place.

Ramadan fasting begins Sunday in Iran. It started Saturday, as expected, in Saudi Arabia, once the Ramadan crescent moon was confirmed Friday. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also declared Saturday as the first day of the lunar month.

Montazeri stressed that prosecutors across Iran should cooperate with, and support the police, in following holy month’s rituals and regulations. Foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian tweeted a wish that the holy month bring “mercy…to us and all peoples with goodness, tranquility and abundance.”

Fewer people have been observing the Muslim fasting period in recent years but police arrest and fine anyone who breaks the rules in public.

In addition to avoiding certain actions mentioned in the Qur'an, Muslims must abstain from food or drink of any kind from dawn to dusk, which will be about 14 hours in Iran this year.

Every year police enforce a national plan to deal with those who break Ramadan rules in public, and transgressors are sometimes sentenced to months of detention and lashes.