Russia Makes Demands In Iran Talks Related To Ukraine Sanctions

Iran’s nuclear head Mohammad Eslami Iran would resolve “outstanding matters” by June 21 with the UN atomic watchdog. It was unclear if the watchdog chief backed the timeline.

Eslami announced the timeframe in Tehran at a press conference alongside Rafael Mariano Grossi, visiting chief of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency.

It was unclear how the three-month timetable would fit with nuclear talks between Tehran and world powers in Vienna, where many participants over the past week have stressed that efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are reaching a conclusion.

"We have agreed to provide the IAEA by the end of [the Iranian month of] Khordad [June 21] with documents related to outstanding questions between Tehran and the agency," Eslami told the news conference, which was televised in Iran.

"It is important to have this understanding ... to work together, to work very intensively," Grossi said. But the IAEA chief, who was due to return to Vienna Saturday, added: "There are still matters that need to be addressed by Iran."

Complex interplay

The interplay between the Vienna talks and the IAEA role is a complex one. As a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT), Iran is subject to IAEA inspections and monitoring under its NPT ‘safeguards’ agreement.

But the agency’s role was enhanced under the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which limited Iran’s nuclear program in scale and nature. Since 2019, a year after the United States left the JCPOA and began ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, Iran has both expanded its nuclear program and limited IAEA access almost to the lower level required under safeguards.

But in addition to negotiating a temporary arrangement to maintain access beyond safeguards, Grossi has continued to request information on Iran’s nuclear work prior to 2003, including the agency’s finding of uranium traces it says are unexplained. This IAEA line of enquiry comes under safeguards.

It was reported over the past week that Iran had demanded in Vienna, as part of an agreement over reviving the JCPOA, that this IAEA enquiry be dropped. But in Tehran, Grossi appeared to suggest Saturday that it might be other parties to the talks – presumably the United States or the three western European JCPOA signatories – who were insisting the probe continues.

Resolving ‘outstanding issues’

"Without resolving these (outstanding) issues, efforts to revive the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) may not be possible,” Grossi told Saturday’s press conference. The IAEA chief did not explain whether these ‘outstanding issues’ might be long-standing questions, future agency work in monitoring the reimplementation of the JCPOA, or both.

Aside from any issues directly within the IAEA remit, the Vienna talks have faced challenges in agreeing which US sanctions contravene the JCPOA and exactly how the refined and expanded Iranian nuclear program should be brought back within JCPOA limits.

While one lawmaker was certain that "Iran has reached an agreement better than before with the United States," another member of the Iranian parliament says that the Majles has been kept in the dark about the negotiations in Vienna.

Another Iranian lawmaker was quoted by local media as saying that he is less concerned about the initiatives and positions of the other side than about the plots being hatched by regime insiders in Iran to derail the negotiations.

Hardliner lawmaker Hossein Naghavi-Hosseini told Nameh News in Tehran that he is certain the negotiations will bear fruit and an agreement is at hand, although there are still issues that have not been tackled by the negotiators.

Naghavi-Hosseini said that Iran will announce its final verdict on the deal within a few days. He said Iran is adamant to reach a deal, adding that everything has been agreed upon except the guarantees that Iran demands that the next US President will not pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran.

100%

The hardliner lawmaker went on to say that the two sides have agreed all the sanctions imposed on Iran after President Donald Trump's pull-out from the JCPOA in 2018 will be lifted. What Iran and America have agreed upon is not much different from the JCPOA, he said and explained that Westerners are concerned about Iran's ability to enrich uranium beyond the 60-percent level.

Although Naghavi-Hosseini appeared or claimed to be well-informed about the deal, his colleague Jabbar Kouchakinejad told reporters on Thursday that the parliament has not been informed of the government's views about the talks. He also said that there are still problems about the impact of US sanctions on Iran's economy, insurance and oil industry and international trade which have not been resolved.

Kouchakinejad said there are a lot of ambiguities about a possible deal with America as Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has offered minimal explanations to lawmakers. He added that it is important for the Majles to make sure that any possible agreement does not undermine previous laws passed by the Majles.

Kouchakinejad added that the Majles is also concerned that problems in the United States' domestic politics could prompt any US government to withdraw from a deal with Iran. That is why Iran insists on getting guarantees from the US side, although so far Washington has refused to give any such guarantee.

Meanwhile, he said that as far as safeguard regulations of the JCPOA are concerned, Iran has red lines that cannot allow IAEA inspectors to visit some of its nuclear sites.

At the same time, former Iranian lawmaker Jalal Mirzaee told Asr-e Ma in Tehran that some political elements in Tehran are pushing hard to derail the nuclear talks. Mirzaee, a professor of political science, said that he is more concerned about the adverse impact of these moves than he is concerned about the decisions being made in other capitals.

He said moves opposing an agreement have intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He warned that such moves which are motivated by factional interests have led to wasting of a lot of time and opportunities for Iran and could lead to further costs. "We should seize the opportunity and relieve the country of its tremendous financial difficulties while President Biden urgently needs a deal with Iran," Mirzaee said.

Tasnim news agency in Tehran said Grossi was welcomed at the airport by Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

In a separate report, Tasnim, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard said that contrary to Western statements, issues related to IAEA and nuclear inspection were not the only outstanding hurdles to an agreement in Vienna. The agency said three other issues unresolved and the ball is in the court of Western parties to the talks.

Western and Russian negotiators have repeatedly said in recent days that an agreement is almost complete and could be sign at any moment.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said in televised remarks late on Friday that he placed hope in God and the Iranian people, and not any "economic miracle" from talks in Vienna to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

"Regarding the talks, we place our hope in God first and then... in the capacities of the people of this country, and not at all in any economic miracle that might arise from Vienna," Raisi said. "We do seek and will continue to work towards the lifting of sanctions, more importantly neutralizing them."

"The American adventurisms are behind the recent incidents in Ukraine,” Mohammad-Javad Haj-Aliakbari told Tehran's Friday prayer congregation. “The one responsible is America, which has sacrificed Ukraine to its own greed.”

In Qom, the imam Mohammad Saeedi said “America and the western barbarians wage regional and international wars to sell their weapons." He suggested that "the management of the world" would be better in the hands of "pious people."

In Sari, provincial capital of Mazandaran, Mohammad-Bagher Mohammadi said Moscow was entitled to ensure its own security given Nato’s expansion in eastern Europe. Russia “attacked Ukraine to make Nato give up its meaningless thoughts,” he told his congregation.

Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader Tuesday called for a peaceful settlement while suggesting Ukraine had fallen victim to US policies. “Support by Western governments for administrations and politicians that have been installed by them is a mirage,” Khamenei said, referring to the messy withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan after Washington’s agreement with the Taliban.

100%

Khamenei also claimed that Ukrainians were not resisting strongly "because they did not agree with [their] government." Kayhan newspaper made a similar allegation this week referring to “scarecrow” defense, while the world has watched the fighting and many have admired the Ukrainian resistance to the invasion.

Puppets

Hasan Alidadi, Friday imam in Kerman province, made similar remarks in his sermon Friday: "Regarding the recent Russian attack on Ukraine…when governments are puppets and people's role is not marked, city after city surrenders as fast as you see." Yousef Tabatabeinejad, the Friday imam in Esfahan, also argued Ukrainians were leaving because "they are not in agreement with the government".

General guidelines for over 600 Friday sermons are set out by the Friday Prayer Policymaking Council, whose head and members are appointed by Khamenei.

Alongside India, Iraq, Pakistan and South Africa, Iran was among 35 countries that abstained from a vote Wednesday at UN General Assembly condemning Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Four countries − Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria − joined Russia in voting against the motion. Israel ended up voting in favor after earlier expressing neutrality.

Support voiced for Ukraine

While the government, its media and imams have supported Russia, thousands of Iranians on social media have condemned the invasion and vented anger at leaders for siding with Moscow.

Even in government-controlled media, some pundits and editors have cautiously criticized Russia and demanded a more neutral position by Iran.

Mohammad-Reza Khabbaz, a reformist former member of parliament, told Arman-e Melli newspaper in an article published Thursday that he had expected Iran “to oppose such aggression and condemn it in the early days.” Khabbaz said Iran should “condemn those [in the west] who were responsible for creating these circumstances but shouldn't allow Russia to take benefit from our silence.”

"We are close. E3 negotiators leaving Vienna briefly to update Ministers on state of play. Ready to return soon," Stephanie Al-Qaq said on Twitter, referring to the chief British, French and German diplomats involved in the talks.

Despite the British diplomat's teasing Twitter post, two sources with direct knowledge said there was still no deal and European and Iranian officials said that Iran's lead negotiator, nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani was staying in Vienna.

Negotiators have worked for 11 months to try to revive the 2015 deal, known as JCPOA, under which Iran limited its nuclear program to make it harder to obtain fissile material for a bomb - an ambition Tehran denies - in return for relief from economic sanctions.

Then-US President Donald Trump reneged on the pact in 2018, restoring US sanctions that have slashed Iran's oil exports. Iran followed suit by increasing the level of its uranium enrichment violating the deal's nuclear limitations.

It is not clear what exactly the remaining issues are in the talks, but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency is flying to Iran on Saturday to iron out past issues of suspected clandestine nuclear activities.

With reporting by Reuters