US Officials: Iran Nuclear ‘Break-Out’ Under 12 Months With Restored Deal
Reviving the 2015 nuclear deal would see Iran closer than a year to holding enough fuel for a bomb, United States officials have told the Wall Street Journal.
Reviving the 2015 nuclear deal would see Iran closer than a year to holding enough fuel for a bomb, United States officials have told the Wall Street Journal.
This is a shorter time-frame than the 12-month calculation underpinning the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which Iran and world powers are negotiating in Vienna to restore.
The Wall Street Journal Thursday cited US officials saying they had reached this conclusion late last year but still considered the JCPOA worth reviving. ‘Break out’ is seen as the time required for the US to both detect a possible Iranian bomb program and take counter-measures.
The12-month period, while not cited in the JCPOA, was based on the amount of enriched uranium held by Iran under the agreement, and the number and nature of centrifuges – the key device – available or in use. Before the 2015 agreement, the time was under a year.
The JCPOA set limits on the amount of uranium Iran could stockpile and limited the degree of enrichment to 3.67 percent, well below the 90 percent of ‘weapons grade.’
While there would be little ambiguity over Iran returning to these limits, Iranian negotiators may be arguing in Vienna that it is impractical to limit centrifuges to the less advanced ones allowed by the JCPOA, especially as some have been reportedly destroyed by attacks on nuclear sites widely attributed to Israel.
But the biggest challenge in calculating ‘break out’ – and which may explain the latest assessment of a restored JCPOA – is factoring in the value of experience and knowledge gained by Iranian scientists in the expansion and improvement of the program since 2019, including in deploying more advanced centrifuges.
Increased knowledge and experience
“There’s nothing that a restored JCPOA will do to compensate for that increased knowledge and experience” Iran had gained, Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department arms-control official, told the Wall Street Journal. Einhorn said a six-month break-out period would be enough time to respond—militarily if necessary—to an overt Iranian nuclear breakout.
A State Department spokesperson approached by the Wall Street Journal refused to comment on break-out assessments while insisting the US administration believed a restored JCPOA “would address our urgent nonproliferation concerns.”
The spokesman reiterated a message, delivered by among others Secretary of State Antony Blinken, that “we have only a few weeks to conclude an understanding, after which the pace of Iran’s nuclear advances will make return to the JCPOA impossible.”
While any break out would be shorter than the time Iran would need to assemble a deliverable device, some former US officials have suggested that a period of under six months would remove Washington’s ability to respond sudden ramp-up beyond the JCPOA.
Talks in Vienna over restoring the JCPOA, paused this week for political consultations, have struggled to agree how exactly the Iranian nuclear program be brought back within JCPOA limits and precisely which US sanctions violate the agreement.
Iran began exceeding the JCPOA in 2019, last year reaching 60 percent enrichment, after President Donald Trump left the agreement in 2018 and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions his officials said would lead Tehran to accept 12 US demands, including ending all enrichment, scrapping missile defense, and breaking regional alliances.
Reports about the 200-page letter has been circulating in Iran for a few days, but on Tuesday Sharq newspaper for the first time revealed its content quoting “an informed source”, who said that Jalili has gone beyond criticizing the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Jalili, known as a hardliner on the nuclear issue and an opponent of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was Iran’s chief negotiator from 2007-2013, when ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency came to an end and Hassan Rouhani assumed office, bringing with him Mohammad Javad Zarif as foreign minister.
During Jalili’s tenure Iran’s nuclear diplomacy failed in finding a compromise with the West and evidence of large-scale uranium enrichment eventually led to the United Nations Security Council beginning to impose economic sanctions on Iran.
Fresh talks started in the first year of Rouhani’s presidency that eventually led to the signing of the JCPOA.
Sharq newspaper quoting its ‘informed source’ says that Jallili in his letter proposed to Khamenei to end the nuclear talks, withdraw from the Obama-era nuclear agreement and boost uranium enrichment to 90 percent, which would mean weapons-grade fissile material. Currently, Iran enriches to 60-percent purity, which has already alarmed the Western powers.
Jalili in his letter also told the Supreme Leader not to be concerned about a harsh reaction by world powers, arguing that if the West takes Iran’s case to the Security Council, Russia and China would veto any return to international sanctions. He then goes a step further and proposes to open direct negotiations with United States at that stage, from apposition of strength and extract concession, including the removal of US sanctions imposed by former president Donald Trump.
This would amount to a repeat of Jalili’s experiments when he was chief nuclear negotiator. The history of those negotiations shows that his procrastinations and hardline postures led to the international sanctions, which Russia and China did not veto between 2007-2112, banning Iran’s oil exports, weapons trades and banking restrictions.
The existence of Jalili’s letter has not been officially confirmed, but besides media reports, the spokesman of the foreign ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, did not deny it. When asked about his reaction to the letter on Monday, he suggested that reporters should ask Mr. Jalili and went on to say that Iran’s nuclear negotiating strategy is “decided collectively”, meaning that a range of present and former officials have input.
Sharq in its report says that before sending the letter to Khamenei, Jalili shared his views with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and current nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani, his former protégé, but failed to convince them. After that he decided to appeal to the highest decision maker in the land.
The idea of direct talks with the United States was mentioned by the foreign minister last month, but as a part of reviving the JCPOA and not withdrawing from it.
Sharq mentions that after years of relentless attacks against the JCPOA, a large segment of hardliner conservatives faced a dilemma when Ebrahim Raisi who was representing them, became president last year and continued nuclear talks. One choice was to back down from their opposition and support the new hardliner government, and another was to continue opposing a nuclear compromise.
The newspaper commented that Jalili apparently has decided to continue playing the role of a “shadow government” and oppose negotiations and any agreement that falls short of full uranium enrichment.