Iran International
A senior Revolutionary Guards official has compared Iran’s conflict with the United States to a world war that could reshape the global order, reflecting a mindset in Tehran that appears increasingly resistant to backing down despite the risk of renewed US attacks.
IRGC political deputy Yadollah Javani said Wednesday that the conflict could have consequences comparable to the two world wars and alter the global balance of power.
His remarks capture a broader calculation among Iranian hardliners: if the confrontation is genuinely existential and its consequences historic, preserving Iran’s leverage may matter more than reducing the immediate risk of escalation.
That calculation is increasingly visible around the Strait of Hormuz, where the IRGC has intensified threats against US and commercial vessels even as officials warn that Washington may be preparing another attack.
President Donald Trump recently told an election campaign gathering in Alaska that he would call on Israel to prepare for a possible attack on Iran, while saying a decision on Iran would be announced “very soon.”
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said Washington could launch new attacks before the November midterm elections, arguing that Trump might seek a military achievement before voters go to the polls.
Pressure around Hormuz
A Singapore-flagged container ship sank near the strait after being hit by a projectile, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing maritime security sources.
IRGC Navy Rear Admiral Ali Azmaei said Iranian coastal defense and fast-attack units were “waiting for American warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz so they can be sunk.”
He also warned that commercial vessels operating under coalition naval escort should not assume they would be protected from Iranian action.
Iranian media also reported Wednesday that a small fishing boat had been attacked by an unidentified drone near the strait, killing those on board. The circumstances of the reported attack remained unclear.
Javani said Wednesday that Iran had moved beyond the danger of a surprise attack and that its armed forces were prepared to respond to further enemy action.
He said Iran's adversaries had expected the killing of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to produce victory within 48 to 72 hours.
Tehran has meanwhile continued to distance itself from Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Whatever their origin, attacks threatening Saudi energy infrastructure add to pressure on oil markets, increasing the economic cost of the wider confrontation.
The appeal of the grey zone
Despite the growing economic cost to Iran itself, hardline outlets including Kayhan, Javan and state television continue to champion the “neither war nor negotiation” strategy associated with former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
A comprehensive agreement with Washington could require Tehran to surrender some of its nuclear and regional leverage, while another full-scale war could impose far greater costs on the country and threaten the political system itself.
Remaining between the two, hardliners argue, allows Iran to preserve its nuclear capabilities and regional influence without making irreversible concessions.
They also frequently cite the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as evidence that American commitments cannot be trusted and that any agreement reached today could be abandoned by a future administration.
But the escalating confrontation around Hormuz illustrates the danger inherent in that strategy. Maintaining such a grey zone requires Tehran to create enough risk to generate leverage without pushing the United States or Israel into another major attack.
Where the factions agree
Moderate, pragmatist and reformist-aligned media outlets close to President Masoud Pezeshkian and his foreign policy team have generally argued that Tehran should take advantage of diplomatic opportunities before conditions change.
Their disagreement with hardliners is substantial but does not necessarily extend to Iran's fundamental objectives.
Both sides seek to preserve the Islamic Republic and as much of its nuclear and regional leverage as possible. They differ over whether diplomacy or continued pressure offers the safer route.
For now, Tehran appears to be testing the hardline proposition that it can raise the cost of confrontation enough to make Washington compromise without pushing Trump toward war instead.
Seen from that perspective, Javani's invocation of a world war is more than bellicose rhetoric. It reflects a view of the confrontation as consequential enough that backing down carries risks of its own.
The increasingly dangerous contest around the Strait of Hormuz may determine how much room remains between compromise and another war.
A women’s Basij commander and a police officer were killed in separate attacks on Wednesday in Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province, adding to a series of deadly shootings, bombings and armed clashes in the region.
The IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency said a commander of a women’s Basij unit in Mehrastan County was shot dead outside her home.
Tasnim attributed the killing to what it described as militants linked to the United States and Israel, but did not identify a group or provide evidence supporting that assertion.
The Basij is a paramilitary organization operating under Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Police vehicle attacked in Mehrastan
In a separate incident in the same county, unidentified gunmen attacked a police vehicle, killing First Sergeant Mohammad Ali Shahriari, Tasnim reported.
The outlet did not provide details about the attackers, the circumstances of the shooting or whether anyone else was wounded.
The two killings came a day after major armed confrontations elsewhere in Sistan-Baluchestan that left casualties on both sides, according to Iranian authorities and local reporting.
Six killed in operation near Zahedan
The Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday that five members of an alleged kidnapping cell and one of its personnel were killed near Zahedan, the provincial capital.
The IRGC Ground Force’s Quds regional headquarters said its forces located the group in the Kurin area after an engineer working on construction projects west of Zahedan was abducted a day earlier.
It said five members of the group were killed, the hostage was freed and one IRGC member was killed.
According to the statement, the kidnappers had links to armed groups and intended to take the engineer into a neighboring country. It did not identify the group or the country.
An earlier Tasnim report had put the number of people killed in that operation at three.
More than 20 Fatemiyoun casualties reported
Separately, Haalvsh, which covers developments in Sistan-Baluchestan, said more than 20 members of the Fatemiyoun were killed or wounded Tuesday during more than seven hours of fighting in the mountainous Chah Ahmad and Arzan Tak areas of Taftan County. The figure could not be independently verified.
Citing local sources and eyewitnesses, Haalvsh said armed men who had taken positions in the mountains opened heavy fire on a group that included Fatemiyoun fighters traveling on motorcycles.
Fatemiyoun is an Iran-backed Shiite militia composed largely of Afghan fighters and organized with support from the Revolutionary Guards. Its members have fought alongside Iranian forces in regional conflicts.
Haalvsh said reinforcements later arrived with more than 40 vehicles as well as reconnaissance and combat drones. It also reported mortar and heavy-weapons fire in the surrounding mountains.
The identities and affiliation of the armed men involved in the fighting remained unclear.
Series of attacks on security personnel
Sistan-Baluchestan, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, has seen repeated attacks on police and military personnel in recent weeks.
On October 9, Iranian state media reported that Nosrat Eftekhari, a senior provincial police official, was killed in a roadside bombing near Zahedan.
A day earlier, a police commando was killed in an armed attack near Nosratabad, while a separate attack on a vehicle carrying Iranian Army personnel near Nikshahr killed another serviceman.
On September 23, an armed confrontation in Saravan killed Hossein Zarifi, a commander with the IRGC’s Sajjad base, according to the Guards’ Quds regional headquarters. Haalvsh separately reported that another intelligence official was killed and at least 13 other personnel were wounded.
At least five Fatemiyoun members were also reported killed in an armed attack near Zahedan on October 2.
More than 90 killed since March - HRANA
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said this week that at least 94 people were killed and 33 wounded in 63 armed incidents across southeastern Iran between March 31 and October 10.
HRANA said attacks on patrol vehicles and military convoys were the most common incidents it documented, followed by targeted shootings.
It also reported increased use of mines, rocket-propelled grenades and other heavier weapons by armed groups, while forces of the Islamic Republic used drones, artillery and armored vehicles in several operations.
The group said the People’s Fighters Front, an alliance formed in December 2025 that includes Jaish al-Adl and several smaller Baluch armed groups, had taken responsibility for six of the incidents it documented. Most attacks remained unattributed or could not be reliably linked to a particular group, HRANA said.
Sistan-Baluchestan, one of Iran’s poorest provinces and home to much of the country’s Sunni Baluch minority, has long seen armed confrontations between the Islamic Republic’s security forces and Baluch armed groups. The frequency and intensity of such incidents have increased in recent months.
Iran's surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may be an attempt to exploit US restraint ahead of the midterm elections and undermine a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments, experts told Iran International.
Twelve vessels were attacked between October 5 and 11, including six on Sunday alone, and on Tuesday a tanker and a container ship were struck by unknown projectiles, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), marking one of the most intense periods of attacks since the war began.
Rear Admiral Ali Azmaei of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy warned Tuesday that Iranian forces would sink US warships approaching the Strait of Hormuz, saying they were “counting down” to a possible confrontation in the strategic waterway.
The escalation comes as the US blockade has effectively halted Iran's crude oil exports, while other Persian Gulf producers have increasingly succeeded in moving their oil through the strategic waterway, threatening to erode one of Tehran's remaining sources of leverage. Brent crude settled at $105.69 per barrel Tuesday, snapping three consecutive sessions of gains, as traders weighed continued Middle Eastern supply disruptions against other market developments.
Charlie Brown, a maritime security expert with United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), believes the timing may be linked to President Donald Trump's announcement that Washington would not launch new attacks against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
"I think Trump signaled it, right? He said he wouldn't attack until the election," Brown told Iran International.
"So, you know, now they're taking that as word, I guess. And testing it and taking advantage of the situation."
Brown said the absence of direct American retaliation for the latest strikes may be encouraging Tehran to push further.
Two senior Iranian officials separately told Reuters that Tehran had changed the type and pace of its attacks, with one goal being to influence the US midterm elections and frustrate efforts to lower global oil prices.
"Every attack that goes without a response probably encourages a follow-on attack," he said.
The calculation extends beyond the military confrontation. Although the United States is less dependent on Persian Gulf oil than many Asian economies, disruptions affect global energy prices and American consumers.
Brown suggested Tehran may be exploiting that vulnerability at a politically sensitive moment, when rising gasoline prices could increase pressure on the White House.
An October surprise?
Shahram Kholdi, a historian of Iran, sees a potentially more ambitious calculation: an attempt to engineer an "October surprise" that could put Trump under pressure ahead of the elections.
Kholdi believes Tehran may have used the relative lull in hostilities to preserve its remaining military capabilities, replenish weapons stockpiles and prepare for a politically advantageous moment to escalate.
"It seems to me that they are headed towards that October surprise moment," he told Iran International.
But Kholdi warned that the strategy could backfire if Tehran moves beyond commercial shipping and attempts to strike American naval assets with advanced missiles.
The danger, in his assessment, is that Tehran may mistake temporary American restraint for an unwillingness to retaliate.
Iran threatens recovery in Persian Gulf oil flows
The latest attacks threaten to reverse a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments that had begun to weaken Tehran's ability to disrupt global energy supplies.
Despite the war, producers had managed to increase exports through Hormuz, aided by US protection measures, larger tankers and costly arrangements to move cargo through the threatened waterway.
Oil flows out of the Persian Gulf averaged approximately 15.5 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the war began, according to recent data by Kpler.
But shipments have since fallen sharply. Just 2.9 million barrels passed through Hormuz on October 11, the lowest daily volume recorded this month, according to Kpler.
The figures underscore the vulnerability of the recovery, although daily flows can fluctuate significantly and do not alone establish how much of the decline resulted directly from the attacks.
Brent crude settled at $104.77 per barrel Tuesday after three consecutive sessions of gains, as traders weighed continued Middle Eastern supply disruptions against other market developments.
Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, said the earlier recovery in oil volumes had masked the dangers facing commercial vessels.
"We're at sort of pre-war levels of oil, but in far fewer ships," he told Iran International.
Sharpe described large tankers making high-risk passages with enhanced American protection, sometimes sustaining strikes before reaching safer waters and transferring cargo to other vessels.
In some cases, he said, crews are also transferred after completing the most dangerous part of the journey.
"It's not working. Iran is still striking," Sharpe said of the enhanced protection measures.
According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, US-facilitated vessel movements through Hormuz averaged approximately 29 per day over a recent 72-hour period, compared with a historical average of roughly 138 daily transits.
Undermining confidence in shipping
Brown said Iran does not need to stop every vessel to undermine confidence in the safety of the waterway.
Exceptionally high tanker charter rates have encouraged some operators to continue despite the danger, but others may decide the financial rewards are not worth risking their vessels and crews.
"There will always be some that take the risk because the profits are so big right now," he said.
The threat has also spread beyond the strait, with vessels attacked near Oman's Sohar anchorage and elsewhere in the Persian Gulf.
Brown believes Iran continues to receive Russian and Chinese intelligence assistance, potentially including satellite imagery and vessel-tracking information that does not rely on ships' Automatic Identification System signals.
"I'm confident that that's still happening on a daily basis," he said.
The escalation comes amid renewed diplomatic contacts between Tehran and Washington, with Iranian officials saying the United States has accepted some of Tehran's conditions for de-escalation but that its response remains insufficient.
Trump said Tuesday that Washington would make a decision on Iran “very soon.”
"We'll make a decision on Iran very soon," Trump told reporters, describing Iran as a "failed country" with no economy, inflation of 300 percent and a government unable to pay its troops.
The United States continues enforcing its maritime blockade, while Trump has said Washington will not resume strikes against Iran before the November 3 elections.
Sharpe noted that the surge in attacks on shipping is occurring alongside intensified strikes by the Iran-backed Houthis against Saudi Arabia.
"There's an Iranian and Houthi escalation going on here that's not being matched. How long will that carry on for?" he said.
The simultaneous pressure on Persian Gulf shipping and Saudi infrastructure risks widening the confrontation at a time when diplomatic efforts have yet to produce a settlement.
The stakes for Tehran are particularly high.
Kpler data shows no Iranian crude oil or condensate loaded onto tankers throughout September, leaving the Islamic Republic increasingly dependent on its ability to threaten shipments from neighboring producers to maintain leverage over Washington.
But the strategy carries a significant risk: an attack causing substantial casualties or striking US military assets could trigger the kind of direct American retaliation Kholdi warned Tehran may be underestimating.
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would make a decision on Iran “very soon,” as fresh attacks hit commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis escalated.
Speaking to reporters before departing for Alaska, Trump described Iran as a “failed country” with severe economic problems but did not specify what decision Washington was considering.
"Iran is a failed country. They have no economy. They have 300 percent inflation. They have no money. They're not paying their troops. They're not paying anybody. We'll make a decision on Iran very soon," Trump said.
Trump's remarks came as fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis intensified.
In a separate Truth Social post, Trump suggested the renewed attacks were carried out “probably at the behest of Iran” and accused the Houthis of deliberately trying to drive up oil prices ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections.
"They’ve been silent for a long time, but now they’ve emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, which is a Failing Nation, with No Navy, No Airforce, the World’s Worst Economy, and 301% Inflation, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections — NOT NICE," Trump wrote.
“I’ll be there after the elections, and I will never forget!” he added.
Trump also said he might ask Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help Saudi Arabia deal with the Houthis. He said the Houthis were “behaving very badly” and added, “President Erdogan, I think, would do as I ask.”
Trump said Saturday he was considering whether the United States should join Saudi Arabia's military campaign against the Houthis following the deadly attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport.
Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles and drones
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued on Tuesday following a deadly strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
The Saudi-led coalition said its air defenses intercepted and destroyed five drones and six missiles targeting Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, including Riyadh, Dhahran and the country's southern region.
Loud explosions were heard near Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran, where a fire broke out after a missile attack. A source with direct knowledge told Reuters the headquarters had been struck, though it was unclear whether the building was hit directly or by falling debris. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said the fire was limited to an administrative building and caused no injuries.
As attacks continued on Saudi territory, the Saudi-led coalition carried out strikes in Yemen.
Houthi-run Al-Masirah television said the coalition struck the Yemen Petroleum Company's Al-Sabaha central station on the outskirts of Sanaa after ordering civilians to evacuate the site.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group's forces were confronting Saudi fighter jets targeting Sanaa and warned that attacks on the Yemeni capital would be met with a “harsh and painful” response in Riyadh.
The fighting prompted a series of diplomatic calls across the region on Tuesday.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Turkey would continue to stand by the kingdom, strongly condemning the Houthi attacks, according to the Turkish presidency.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for an immediate halt to attacks on Saudi Arabia during a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, calling the attacks unjustified and unacceptable, Egypt's Foreign Ministry said.
Araghchi also spoke with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Tuesday about regional developments and efforts to resolve ongoing conflicts, according to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Iran to engage in serious negotiations and stop destabilizing the region after speaking with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to the German government.
Two more ships struck in Strait of Hormuz
A tanker and a container ship were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, UKMTO said in separate notices. The latest incidents followed a sharp increase in attacks on commercial shipping, with 12 vessels reported attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf between October 5 and 11, according to a tally of UKMTO warnings.
UKMTO said both incidents were under investigation and that details of damage or casualties had not been established.
The incidents came as Iran's Revolutionary Guards renewed threats against US naval forces operating near the strait.
IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei said Iranian forces were waiting for American warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz so they could be “sunk.”
Azmaei also claimed the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf were under IRGC Navy control.
US Central Command rejected Azmaei's assertion, saying Tuesday that “American forces and regional partners clearly control the Strait of Hormuz.” CENTCOM said US forces had assisted Persian Gulf partners in shipping more than 19 million barrels of crude oil through the strait on Monday.
Trump weighs next steps on Iran
Trump’s comments about an impending decision on Iran came as Axios reported his administration was weighing whether to maintain pressure on Tehran or resume military action.
Axios reported Tuesday that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed a possible new operation against Iran last week, with Netanyahu raising concerns that Tehran was rebuilding parts of its nuclear program.
A US official told Axios that Trump told Netanyahu to prepare for a possible operation but made no commitment on whether or when military action would take place. A White House official disputed that Trump and Netanyahu discussed resuming the war and reiterated that the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
Axios said Trump had initially appeared inclined toward renewed strikes but later became more hesitant, while most of his advisers favored maintaining economic and other pressure on Iran for now.
The possibility of renewed military action has also prompted warnings from Tehran. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a senior adviser to the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said a US ground attack would result in large numbers of American troops being captured.
“If the United States launches a ground attack, so many of its troops will be captured that it will be forced to raise the white flag,” Naghdi said.
Despite signs of movement in negotiations with Washington, Tehran is showing little inclination to ease military pressure, pursuing diplomacy while signaling that renewed US attacks could trigger a broader regional response.
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tuesday that Iran was finalizing its response to US comments on a proposal Tehran submitted in New York, insisting that the Islamic Republic remained open to diplomacy but was prepared for war as well.
Some Iranian officials have privately suggested Tehran could send forces into neighboring countries if the United States launches new strikes, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the warnings.
The newspaper said Tehran had warned regional governments, publicly and privately, that renewed US attacks would prompt a wider Iranian response across the Middle East.
The combination of diplomacy and military pressure reflects the central calculation facing Tehran: whether limited movement from Washington represents the beginning of a settlement or an attempt to weaken Iran's leverage without conceding its principal demands.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has said Washington accepted “some” of Tehran's seven conditions for de-escalation through Qatari and Omani mediators. But Iranian officials have characterized the US response as insufficient.
At sea, there has been no corresponding easing of pressure.
The Revolutionary Guards have continued to warn ships against using routes Tehran considers unauthorized, including alternative passages intended to circumvent Iranian restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Preserving Iran's leverage
Control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of Tehran's strongest sources of leverage. If US-protected shipping can routinely bypass Iranian restrictions, Tehran risks losing that leverage while continuing to suffer the effects of the US blockade on its own economy.
Tehran's demands include an end to the blockade and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Allowing alternative routes to become normalized before securing substantial concessions would mean surrendering one of its most powerful bargaining tools.
But maintaining that pressure is also hurting Iran. Its oil exports have effectively stopped under the blockade, with Kpler data showing no crude oil or condensate loaded onto tankers throughout September.
Restrictions have also complicated imports and intensified pressure on an economy already struggling with a sharply weakened currency and high inflation.
Tehran is therefore trying to preserve its maritime leverage while suffering increasingly severe consequences from the confrontation that created it.
Widening the confrontation?
Enforcing Iranian restrictions farther from traditional shipping lanes risks turning a struggle over the Strait of Hormuz into a broader confrontation involving neighboring states.
Oman and Qatar have been central to mediation between Washington and Tehran. Any Iranian action threatening shipping close to Omani waters could complicate the diplomatic channel Tehran is simultaneously trying to preserve.
Iran has not publicly announced plans to send forces across its borders, but the warnings appear designed to convince regional governments that another US campaign against Iran would not remain confined to Iranian territory.
Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia have already demonstrated how quickly renewed fighting can spread beyond the direct US-Iran confrontation, threatening airports, energy infrastructure and regional shipping.
For Tehran, that instability can increase pressure on Washington and its allies. But it also raises the possibility of an escalation Iran may struggle to control.
War and diplomacy
Hardline and security-aligned voices portray Washington's willingness to engage with Tehran's proposals as evidence that military pressure has worked and argue against giving up that leverage prematurely.
Others favoring diplomacy see US movement as an opening that could disappear if attacks on shipping or neighboring states trigger another round of escalation.
Gharibabadi captured that dual approach Tuesday, saying Iran had not shied away from diplomacy but was prepared for either outcome.
For now, Tehran is pursuing both tracks simultaneously, negotiating while trying to demonstrate that failure to reach an agreement will remain costly — not only for Iran, but for the United States and its regional partners.
The International Monetary Fund forecast Tuesday that Iran’s economy would shrink 7.6% in 2026, a worse outlook than for its main Middle Eastern rivals amid the war, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE facing smaller contractions and Israel and Turkey expected to grow.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook revised Iran's forecast downward from a 5.4% contraction projected in July. The economy is now expected to shrink for a second consecutive year, following an estimated 0.9% decline in 2025.
The IMF expects the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia to contract by 0.3% this year, a sharp reversal from the 1.9% growth it forecast in April.
Several countries in the region face deeper contractions than Iran, with the IMF forecasting declines of 16.7% in Kuwait, 16% in Iraq, 15.6% in Qatar and 11.3% in Bahrain.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are expected to see smaller contractions of 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively. Others are projected to grow, including Egypt by 5.1%, Israel by 4.5%, Oman by 4.1%, and Jordan and Turkey by 2.7% each.
The deterioration in most regional countries reflects renewed military exchanges and prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran faces the additional pressure of the US naval blockade.
Iran's projected contraction nevertheless stands out, reflecting restrictions on its oil exports and an economy already weakened by years of sanctions and structural problems.
‘Deep recession’
Iranian government data presents a similarly bleak picture.
The Statistical Center of Iran reported last month that GDP contracted 10% in spring 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, the sharpest quarterly decline in 15 years.
Even excluding oil, the economy shrank 4.6%, showing that the downturn extended well beyond the energy sector.
Oil and gas production fell 26.4% from a year earlier, while industry and mining contracted 14.7% and services 4.8%. Agriculture was the only major sector to expand, growing 2.3%.
Exports of goods and services fell nearly 36% and imports declined almost 15%. Household consumption dropped 4%, indicating a further weakening of domestic demand and purchasing power.
The figures contrast sharply with the global outlook, with the IMF expecting growth of just over 3% worldwide in 2026.
Officials offer rosier picture
Senior Iranian officials have continued to offer far more optimistic assessments.
Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati told state television last week that inflationary pressures had eased during the summer and that the government had prevented the economic collapse predicted by Washington.
Former Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki went further in recent remarks that drew mockery on Iranian social media, saying inflation was effectively Iran's only economic problem.
“If you put high prices aside, you have no other economic problems,” he said.
Pressure on oil exports
Iran loaded no crude oil or condensate onto tankers throughout September, according to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler, the first full month without loadings since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Washington has described its economic campaign as an effort to deprive Tehran of its remaining sources of revenue.
On October 8, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 17 vessels and associated companies it identified as part of Iran's remaining shadow fleet.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration would continue targeting those facilitating Iranian oil sales.
The combination of the IMF forecast and Iran's own economic data points to a recession extending well beyond the country's energy sector.
How much deeper it becomes will depend in large part on the duration of the war, the blockade and Tehran's ability to restore oil exports.
