The Parliamentary Research Center said in a report on summer electricity supply that the gap between supply and demand at peak consumption is projected to reach 13,640 megawatts under a realistic scenario.
The scale is large even by Iran’s recent blackout standards. The report projects maximum simultaneous supply at about 68,420 megawatts, while peak network demand is expected to exceed 81,000 megawatts. That means the shortfall would amount to nearly one-fifth of available supply at the moment of greatest pressure.
Iran’s electricity consumption has grown steadily for decades, reaching about 347 terawatt-hours in 2024. Its summer peak demand reached around 80,000 megawatts that year, according to official data presented by Iran’s grid management company, showing how close this year’s projected demand is to the country’s recent record levels.
The figures also show why headline power-plant capacity can be misleading. Iranian officials have said installed generation capacity has crossed 100,000 megawatts, but the parliamentary report’s estimate of usable simultaneous supply is far lower, reflecting fuel limits, plant outages, grid constraints and war-related damage.
War damage reshapes electricity balance
The report said the recent war changed both sides of Iran’s electricity balance. Self-supplied power plants taken offline by the conflict removed 4,800 megawatts from supply and disrupted production chains at major industries. At the same time, lower activity in petrochemical and steel sectors reduced part of industrial demand.
That temporary reduction may ease pressure during parts of the summer, but it also points to a fragile balance: if industrial activity recovers, demand for both electricity and gas could rise again.
The report warned that damage to energy infrastructure had reduced gas production capacity to around 600 million cubic meters per day, raising concerns beyond the summer and into the winter, when gas shortages often force power plants, factories and households to compete for supply.
Reduced demand from the petrochemical and steel sectors is expected to keep summer gas consumption between 590 million and 600 million cubic meters a day, easing immediate pressure on power plants.
But the report cautioned that any recovery in industrial output could again strain gas supplies available for electricity generation.
The assessment also warned of a growing evening problem. Solar generation is concentrated during daylight hours, while Iran’s demand often rises again at night as households use cooling systems.
Consumption control seen as key solution
Without stronger demand management, the report said, the country could face larger nighttime shortages than in previous years.
Iran has long faced recurring power cuts, especially in summer, when air conditioning, water demand and industrial consumption push the grid toward its limits.
Sanctions, aging infrastructure, heavy subsidies, underinvestment and management failures have left the system with little margin when temperatures rise.
The report argued that demand control may be more effective than relying only on new power plants.
It estimated that around 60% of summer hours would see electricity shortfalls below 6,000 megawatts, while about 82% of shortage hours would remain below 10,000 megawatts. That means much of the deficit could be reduced through better operation of existing facilities, higher utilization rates and targeted cuts in peak demand.
The center said eliminating most of the imbalance through new generation alone would require roughly 8,000 megawatts of additional capacity.
Instead, it recommended broader demand-side measures, including efficiency improvements, demand response programs, shifting consumption patterns and load-adjustment contracts.
