British couple jailed in Iran remain on hunger strike as health fears grow

The protests, which began in late May in western and central Iran, initially focused on how final exams were being held. They later grew into a broader demand to cancel the fixed impact of 11th-grade GPA scores on the national university entrance exam, or at least change it to a positive-only effect.

Students have protested in West Azarbaijan, Isfahan, Tehran, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Razavi Khorasan, North Khorasan, Khuzestan, Zanjan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, Qazvin, Qom, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Gilan, Lorestan, Mazandaran, Markazi and Yazd provinces.

In Yazd, several students were injured during clashes at a protest. In Qom, at least one person was arrested. In Saveh, education department staff clashed with protesters.

Students in Shahrekord, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, gathered on Saturday alongside students in other provinces and chanted against education policies, including: “Student, cry out! demand your rights” and “Incompetent official we don’t want you.”

A video sent to Iran International showed students in Tehran gathering outside the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution to protest its decisions on the university entrance exam. They chanted: “Justice, education, our undeniable right.”

Earlier in June, students in Khorramabad gathered outside Lorestan’s education department and demanded transparency over the holding of exams. Similar gatherings were reported in Arak and Isfahan, where students protested in-person exams and poor educational conditions.

The protests reached a peak this week in Tehran, when a group of 11th- and 12th-grade students gathered outside the Ministry of Education to oppose the fixed impact of 11th-grade GPA scores on university entrance results.

Students held banners reading “Hear the voice of Iran’s students” and demanded that the policy be scrapped or changed to a positive-only effect.

Dozens of students have sent messages to Iran International criticizing uncertainty in education policy, saying repeated changes to exam and entrance rules have placed heavy psychological pressure on them.

They say the current generation of university applicants has already faced school closures, online education, social crises and repeated changes to education rules, and should not be harmed again by another shift in entrance exam policy.

A senior Iranian official told CNN on Friday that a potential agreement hinges on Washington releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds, warning the United States would enter a "dark corridor" if it resumes military action.

The comments came as Iran also tied the future of a broader peace arrangement to developments in Lebanon, Hezbollah and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

For President Donald Trump, the standoff is testing whether his mix of pressure, unpredictability and military force can break a negotiating playbook that has frustrated successive US administrations.

"The Islamic Republic gets a vote here too," Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, told Eye for Iran. "The Iranian regime plays a much longer game than the United States does in terms of its strategic patience and strategy."

Brodsky said Iran has historically used prolonged negotiations to wear down international demands, pointing to how the original US position of zero enrichment eventually gave way to the 2015 nuclear deal's limited enrichment framework.

But he argued Trump has changed the baseline by demonstrating a willingness to use force.

"For the first time in decades, the Islamic Republic is not enriching uranium," Brodsky said, crediting US and Israeli military action with changing the facts on the ground.

Can Trump outlast Tehran's long game?

Former US diplomat Alberto Fernandez said Trump may possess an advantage previous administrations lacked: the ability to walk away from a deal while maintaining pressure.

"No deal is better than a bad deal," Fernandez said, arguing that Trump could refuse sanctions relief, maintain the blockade and preserve the threat of future strikes if Tehran refuses to compromise.

Still, there are concerns that Iran's strategy may be working in more subtle ways. Tehran has long relied on protracted negotiations to buy time, lower demands and secure concessions incrementally.

Daily Mail special correspondent David Patrikarakos warned that if Iran secures a limited nuclear agreement without restrictions on missiles or regional activity, it could still claim victory.

"If what Iran gets is a ring-fenced nuclear deal, then honestly, it's a defeat and it is a win for the Iranians," he said.

The question is whether Trump can sustain pressure long enough to force a broader agreement—or whether domestic politics, oil prices and regional tensions ultimately push Washington toward a narrower deal.

Is Iran's leverage shrinking?

That question extends beyond the nuclear file.

In Lebanon, President Joseph Aoun delivered a rare public rebuke to Tehran this week, accusing Iran of using his country as a "bargaining chip" in its confrontation with Washington and Israel.

"You are not trying to help us," Aoun told CNN. "The people of Lebanon are paying the price for the sake of your own interest."

He also directed a message to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: "It's not your country, it's our country."

The comments reflect growing frustration among Lebanese officials who argue their country has paid the price for regional conflicts driven by outside powers.

May Farhat, Iran International's correspondent in Beirut, said Hezbollah is facing one of the weakest periods in its history after major military and political setbacks.

"There is little doubt that Hezbollah is going through one of the most difficult periods in its history," Farhat told Eye for Iran.

She pointed to the killing of senior commanders, the loss of Hassan Nasrallah, tighter border controls and new Lebanese restrictions on Iranian access as evidence that the balance of power inside Lebanon is shifting.

For the first time in years, Lebanese authorities have suspended direct Iranian flights, tightened visa requirements for Iranian citizens and moved to limit Tehran's influence over strategic infrastructure and border crossings.

The weakening of Hezbollah matters because it potentially reduces one of Tehran's most important sources of regional leverage at a moment when Iran is attempting to negotiate from a position of strength.

The Strait of Hormuz represents another test of Iran's leverage.

For decades, the Islamic Republic has used the threat of disruption in the waterway as one of its most powerful strategic tools. But according to Homayoun Falakshahi, who leads Kpler's crude oil analysis team, that leverage may already be eroding.

Falakshahi said oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen dramatically since the war and the US blockade on Iranian ports. Before the conflict, roughly 30 oil tankers transited the waterway daily. Today, the average is closer to one or two.

More importantly, he argues that the crisis is accelerating efforts by Gulf states to reduce their dependence on the strait altogether.

Abu Dhabi is already expanding export capacity through Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, while other producers are exploring alternative routes.

"Five years from now, that leverage that the Islamic Republic currently has probably will not exist anymore," Falakshahi said.

He believes Iran may be overestimating the long-term value of its position.

"They always overplay their hand," he said.

While the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated Tehran's ability to shake global energy markets, Falakshahi argues that the strategy ultimately hurts Iran's own interests by damaging China, its most important oil customer and strategic partner.

"I don't think they have the upper hand," he said. "Even though they want everyone to believe that they have."

For now, Iran is testing the limits: in Lebanon, in the Persian Gulf, at sea and at the negotiating table.

Trump may have disrupted Tehran's playbook. But whether he has cracked it will depend on whether pressure produces a durable agreement—or simply another pause in a decades-long confrontation.

More than 50 days into the US blockade of Iran’s southern ports, Iraq’s Umm Qasr has emerged as a new hub for Iran-bound cargo, trade sources say, as Tehran’s first major workaround through Oman’s Khasab grows slower, busier and more expensive.

The Iraqi port is now being used to move some Iran-bound cargo, including cars, after shipments are first transferred from ports in the United Arab Emirates on vessels flying non-Iranian flags, sources with knowledge of the matter Iran International.

The shift adds a new layer to Iran’s effort to keep trade moving through indirect routes after the US blockade, which began on April 13, closed the main passages in the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ships and vessels linked to the Islamic Republic.

Iran International previously reported that the small Omani port of Khasab, on the Musandam Peninsula near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, had become one of the main alternatives for moving goods into Iran.

Cargoes that once moved through standard UAE-Iran channels have been transferred from Emirati ports to Khasab, then loaded onto Iranian vessels bound for ports on Iran’s southern coast.

But trade sources said the route has become slower in recent weeks as demand has risen.

The number of vessels gathering in Khasab has increased, while the port’s limited capacity has made loading and transfers more time-consuming and more expensive than in the first days after the ceasefire, the sources said.

Oman, which had previously imposed limited restrictions or charges on some cargoes, has also introduced new costs for certain goods in recent weeks.

One trade source said some shipments, including cars, are now subject to charges based on the value of the goods.

Against that backdrop, Umm Qasr, Iraq’s main Persian Gulf port, has become a complementary route.

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The Iraqi port is now being used to move some Iran-bound cargo, including cars, after shipments are first transferred from ports in the United Arab Emirates on vessels flying non-Iranian flags, sources with knowledge of the matter Iran International.

The shift adds a new layer to Iran’s effort to keep trade moving through indirect routes after the US blockade, which began on April 13, closed the main passages in the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ships and vessels linked to the Islamic Republic.

Iran International previously reported that the small Omani port of Khasab, on the Musandam Peninsula near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, had become one of the main alternatives for moving goods into Iran.

Cargoes that once moved through standard UAE-Iran channels have been transferred from Emirati ports to Khasab, then loaded onto Iranian vessels bound for ports on Iran’s southern coast.

But trade sources said the route has become slower in recent weeks as demand has risen.

The number of vessels gathering in Khasab has increased, while the port’s limited capacity has made loading and transfers more time-consuming and more expensive than in the first days after the ceasefire, the sources said.

Oman, which had previously imposed limited restrictions or charges on some cargoes, has also introduced new costs for certain goods in recent weeks.

One trade source said some shipments, including cars, are now subject to charges based on the value of the goods.

Against that backdrop, Umm Qasr, Iraq’s main Persian Gulf port, has become a complementary route.

How the new route works

Sources told Iran International that cars have been among the cargoes moved from Umm Qasr toward Iran. There is no confirmed information on whether other categories of goods are being transferred through the same route.

In this method, cars or other Iran-bound cargo are first shipped from docks in the UAE, including Dubai, to Umm Qasr under flags other than Iran’s.

From there, the cargo can move into Iran by land or by water.

On the land route, shipments travel from Umm Qasr to Basra, then to Iran's Shalamcheh border crossing, before reaching Khorramshahr and other destinations in Iran.

On the water route, vessels heading for Khorramshahr must enter the Shatt al-Arab, known in Iran as the Arvand River, and continue from there to Iranian piers.

Some cargoes can also move from Umm Qasr through Khor Abdullah toward southern Iranian ports, including Bandar Lengeh, according to the information obtained by Iran International.

Khasab, however, remains attractive to many traders despite congestion and higher costs.

One reason is that goods can reach Oman by both land and sea.

Some shipments can be moved from the UAE into Oman overland, and trade sources say monitoring of certain cargoes traveling by land to Oman is less strict than on fully maritime routes.

The Umm Qasr route is different.

Cargoes moving from the UAE to the Iraqi port generally have to be loaded at official docks in Dubai or other Emirati ports, where trailers and containers pass through scanning systems and face more stringent controls.

Umm Qasr’s location still makes it useful for Iran’s trade network.

The port lies about 60 kilometers south of Basra and is one of Iraq’s most important Gulf terminals. A significant share of Iraq’s imports of basic goods, including grain and sugar, moves through the port, which connects Iraq to Gulf trade routes.

Its proximity to Basra, the Shalamcheh crossing and Iran’s Khuzestan province has made it a practical option for shipments headed toward southwestern Iran.

Iranian local officials had previously referred to the use of this route.

Javad Kazem-Nasab Al-Baji, deputy governor of Khuzestan for economic affairs, said in May during a meeting with the head of Iran’s customs administration that agreements had been reached for the entry of basic goods and relief items through Iraq’s Umm Qasr port.

But the route also carries risks. The IRGC Navy recently targeted a commercial vessel at Umm Qasr, calling it “American-Israeli.” The IRGC said the attack was carried out in retaliation for a US strike on the Iranian vessel Lian Star.

The incident showed that even alternative routes through Iraq are not insulated from the military and security tensions surrounding the blockade.

For traders and transport intermediaries, however, pressure on Iran’s traditional maritime routes has made even more complicated and risky options part of the calculation.

Israeli outlet Ynet reported on Thursday that the Mossad armed Kurdish militias with weapons seized from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as part of a plan to facilitate regime change in Iran.

The report said the CIA was also involved in the plan, but that US President Donald Trump ultimately canceled it under pressure from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It said the Kurds received money and vehicles and were armed with light weapons, anti-tank missiles, grenades and mortar shells.

However, Abdullah Mohtadi, secretary-general of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, told Iran International that his party had not received any weapons from Israel or the United States.

Khalid Azizi, spokesman for the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, also told Iran International that his party had received no weapons from Israel or the United States, calling the reports “completely untrue.”

Reza Kaabi, secretary-general of the Komala Party of Toilers of Kurdistan, also denied receiving any weapons from Israel or the United States and said other Iranian Kurdish parties had not received any weapons from the two countries either.

The three parties are among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups that have long opposed the Islamic Republic.

Kurdish ground invasion plan

The Jerusalem Post separately reported on Thursday that, according to sources close to outgoing Mossad chief David Barnea, the United States was in many ways the originator of the idea of using Kurdish forces to open an internal ground front against Iran’s government.

The report said Israel had hoped to activate Kurdish forces with previous combat experience, including groups involved in US-backed operations against Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003.

It said Israeli officials believed such a plan could allow Washington to avoid deploying its own ground forces, while Israel would provide air cover and firepower against Iranian forces trying to block a Kurdish advance.

In April, when asked about reported plans to have Kurdish forces launch a ground operation against Iran, Trump said, “I'd rather have them stay away because I think they bring with them some problems and some difficulties. They bring death, I mean to themselves."

The Jerusalem Post said the plan was ultimately halted amid disagreements in Washington over whether it could succeed, as well as pressure from Erdogan, who opposed any Kurdish military operation that could strengthen Kurdish groups near Turkey.

The report said some Israeli officials were skeptical of the operation, while Mossad officials and sources close to Barnea argued that the agency had already prepared the ground for it.

The report also said Israel had begun striking Iranian government and Basij targets in Kurdish areas during the war, but that only ten percent of the targets intended to support a Kurdish ground operation were hit before that stage of the campaign was halted.

According to the Jerusalem Post, Barnea told Trump in a video call on February 12 that Iran’s government was unlikely to fall immediately, but that a war combined with Kurdish ground pressure and continued US financial, maritime, diplomatic and military pressure could create the conditions for regime change within a year or more.

The report said Barnea believed those plans would become far less relevant if Trump lifted economic sanctions or ended the US counter-blockade against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz before a final agreement on key disputes.

In that scenario, the report said, Iran’s government could regain access to funds, strengthen its position and reduce the internal pressure needed for any renewed regime-change effort.