The United States is close to an interim agreement with Iran to end the war and launch nuclear negotiations, with Tehran expected to respond on key points within 48 hours, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two US officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.
The report said this was the closest the two sides had come to a deal since the war began, although nothing has been agreed.
Meanwhile, a Pakistani source involved in mediation efforts told Reuters that Tehran and Washington were close to agreeing on the one-page memorandum to end the war, confirming the Axios report.
“We will close this very soon. We are getting close,” the source said.
Iran leadership divided
The White House believes Iran’s leadership is divided, which could complicate efforts to reach consensus, while some US officials remain skeptical that even an initial deal will be achieved, according to Axios.
It added that US President Donald Trump’s decision to pause the planned Project Freedom operation in the Strait of Hormuz was based on progress in the talks.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
A proposed one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding would declare an end to hostilities and start a 30-day period of talks on a detailed agreement, according to Axios.
Those negotiations would focus on reopening transit through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran’s nuclear program and lifting US sanctions. Talks could take place in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said.
Iran’s restrictions on shipping and the US naval blockade would also be eased during the 30-day period, a US official said, adding that Washington could quickly restore the blockade or resume military action if talks collapse.
The US imposed the blockade in April to pressure Iran after talks failed, while Tehran restricted transit through the strait in response.
Uranium enrichment
Under the draft, Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, while the United States would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, sources told Axios.
The duration of the enrichment freeze remains under negotiation, with sources saying it could last at least 12 years, possibly extending to 15, compared with Iran’s proposal of five years and a US demand for 20.
Two sources said Iran could also agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country, a key US demand that Tehran has previously rejected.
The draft would also include commitments by Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons, accept enhanced UN inspections including snap checks, and potentially halt operations at underground facilities, a US official said.
“They have to have guns. And I think they’re getting some guns. As soon as they have guns, they’ll fight like, as good as anybody there is,” Trump said in an interview with The Hugh Hewitt Show.
Trump also suggested that US military pressure had already significantly weakened Iran and that further action could be completed within a short timeframe.
“We’ve taken out much of what we’d have to do, probably another two weeks, two weeks, maybe three weeks,” he said.
Trump said large numbers of Iranians would struggle to confront armed forces without access to weapons.
“You can’t have an unarmed population against people with AK-47s,” he said, adding that even hundreds of thousands of protesters would struggle against a smaller armed force.
He said previous protests had been met with heavy force, citing the deaths of tens of thousands of demonstrators, and suggested this had made him cautious about encouraging renewed unrest.
“I’m very torn on it, because they lost 42,000 people in the first two weeks. I don’t really want to see that,” Trump said.
Past weapons transfers
Trump said during a phone interview with Fox Sunday in early April that his administration had previously attempted to send firearms to Iranian protesters but that the effort did not reach its intended recipients.
“We sent guns to the protesters, a lot of them. We sent them through the Kurds. And I think the Kurds took the guns,” he said.
He repeated similar complaints, saying he was “very upset with a certain group of people” and warning they would “pay a big price.”
Several Kurdish groups have denied receiving such shipments.
Calls in Washington to arm Iranians
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has also urged the administration to pursue a policy of directly arming Iranian civilians.
“If I were President Trump and I were Israel, I would load the Iranian people up with weapons so they can go to the streets armed and turn the tide of battle inside Iran,” Graham said in an interview with Fox News on Monday.
“We don’t need American boots on the ground. We’ve got millions of boots on the ground in Iran. They just don’t have any weapons,” he added.
Graham described the idea as “a Second Amendment solution,” suggesting that arming civilians could help bring down the government without direct foreign military involvement.
He also called for alternative channels to deliver weapons, urging the administration not to rely on Kurdish intermediaries.
Military pressure and internal divisions
Trump framed his comments within a broader assessment that Iran’s military and economic capacity had been significantly weakened.
“They have no navy. They have no air force. They have no anti-aircraft,” he told The Hugh Hewitt Show.
Trump added that financial pressure may have affected the government’s ability to pay its forces.
“We don’t think they’re paying their soldiers and their Guard anymore,” he said.
He also suggested divisions within Iran’s security structure, drawing a distinction between the regular army and other forces.
“We purposefully have not gone after them too much, because we think that they’re much more moderate,” Trump said.
At the same time, he said the United States was not seeking to dismantle the country’s military institutions entirely.
“We’re not looking to decimate the army,” he said, referring to past regional experiences.
“You know, when they did Iraq... and the worst thing was they got rid of the all the leaders, so nobody knew who the leader was. And then all of a sudden, you had ISIS. We don’t want to do that.”
Nuclear focus remains central
Despite discussing internal unrest, Trump said that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains the central objective of US policy.
“The one thing I will say is they will never have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Trump said any potential agreement would require the return of highly enriched uranium and limits on missile development, though he stressed that nuclear restrictions remain the priority.
“We do not know how we can go on with these prices. Yesterday I bought two sausages. It cost 1 million rials,” one viewer told Iran International, an amount equal to about 60 cents.
The strain is deepening as Iran’s minimum wage has fallen below $90 and the rial continues to lose value, hitting a new low this week.
Another message said workers at a glass factory had still not received their March wages and that supplementary insurance had been cut.
Several citizens linked the deterioration to factory closures after the ceasefire, shortages of raw materials and rising rents.
“Since the ceasefire, most factories have shut down, especially in industrial estates. Everyone has become unemployed because of shortages of raw materials. Daily goods have become more expensive, deposits and rents have gone up, and medical and drug costs have soared,” one message said.
Service platforms absorb jobseekers
Shargh daily reported that new registrations on the home-services platform Achareh rose sharply in late April compared with the same period last year, especially in lower-barrier work such as cleaning and catering.
Registrations for cleaning and catering rose 239 percent from April 21 to May 2, while electrical work rose 220 percent, plumbing 176 percent, cooling services 150 percent, and building maintenance 140 percent, according to figures provided to Shargh.
Bahman Emam, the platform’s chief executive and co-founder, told Shargh that overall job registrations had risen 30 percent.
“We witnessed widespread layoffs this year, and it seems a significant share of applicants are seeking a first job,” Emam said.
Shargh also reported that some workers who had left the platform for traditional markets were seeking to return, while others who could no longer afford life in Tehran asked to activate their profiles in other cities.
Experts warn shock may endure
Ashkan Nezamabadi, an economic journalist in Berlin, told Iran International that Iran’s labor market had entered a dangerous phase.
“Only one of the two main job platforms in Iran announced a few days ago that it had 318,000 new job applications in one day, which was a new record,” Nezamabadi said.
He said new job opportunities had fallen by about 80 percent, while economic losses and internet disruptions added to the strain.
“These changes clearly show something is breaking in the labor market,” he said.
Government plans to issue loans worth 220 million rials (around $120) per worker were unlikely to prevent layoffs or create durable jobs, according to Nezamabadi.
He said assistance would be more effective if directed toward consumers to preserve demand, contrasting it with pandemic-era support programs in Europe and the United States.
Wages fall below subsistence costs
Iran’s Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported that the cost of a basic household livelihood basket had reached 713 million rials (about $385), up from 450 million rials (about $240) used in wage talks earlier this year.
Faramarz Tofighi, a labor activist who calculates livelihood costs, told ILNA that even the earlier estimate was not realistic and that wages did not reach 60 percent of it.
“That same unrealistic 450 million rial basket has today reached 713 million rials,” Tofighi said.
ILNA said the minimum wage including benefits had fallen to about $88 after the rial’s decline, leaving workers unable to cover rent and food.
Workers cited in the report said they were struggling to buy even bread and eggs, with meat and rice removed from many household shopping lists.
Political fallout grows
Milad Rasaei-Manesh, a political activist based in Stockholm, linked the downturn to broader structural issues.
“Today the economy is effectively destroyed, and the war and policies pursued have led to widespread unemployment and deeper poverty,” Rasaei-Manesh told Iran International.
He said internet restrictions had compounded the crisis by cutting off income sources.
“Internet shutdowns have directly caused job losses and pushed more people into poverty,” he said.
He said economic pressures could drive coordinated protest action. "If workers organize through strikes and collective action, they can accelerate change,” he added.
The mounting evidence points to a labor market squeezed from both ends: more people seeking work, and fewer households able to pay for services.
