The US State Department on Friday approved a possible foreign military sale to Israel worth $992.4 million for an advanced precision kill weapon system, according to an official notification, Reuters reported.
Any settlement of the Iran war that leaves the Revolutionary Guards in control would preserve the Islamic Republic's core of power and risk turning a military advantage for the US and Israel into a strategic defeat.
That is the central challenge now facing Washington and its allies: how to end the conflict without giving the Islamic Republic time to absorb the blow, preserve the Revolutionary Guards’ grip on power and survive through another diplomatic compromise.
The war must conclude in a way that empowers the Iranian people, with support from outside players, namely the United States and Israel, and leaves them fully prepared to overthrow the IRGC-controlled regime. Any settlement or deal that ensures the Islamic Republic's survival would amount to a strategic defeat for the US and Israel.
In reality, the remnants of the regime still possess enough offensive capability to threaten the region and beyond. The US and Israel can use the most powerful and lethal force available against the Islamic Republic— the Iranian people — to eliminate the remaining threats once and for all.
To be sure, the people of Iran now face a fragmented leadership marked by serious rifts among political factions. The country’s economy is in ruins. The theocracy has sustained deep wounds and is effectively bleeding as a result of the elimination of top military commanders and political leaders.
The Islamic Republic is reportedly losing between $450 million and $500 million per day due to the US blockade of Hormuz. However, there is no guarantee that such economic losses will lead to its immediate collapse or overthrow. It may well resort to further violence and terrorist activity abroad.
Overall, the Islamic Republic is down, but it is not out. Sadly, more innocent people have been executed since an uneasy ceasefire took hold in mid-April.
This is simply because the core nucleus of power — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — remains functional. It has effectively engineered a silent coup under the cover of war, sidelining other contenders such as Ghalibaf, with whom Trump is reportedly seeking a possible framework to end the conflict.
The Trump administration and European powers should be mindful that no so-called reformist figure like Mikhail Gorbachev will emerge from within the Islamic Republic. From this regime, only terrorists emerge, wearing a mask of diplomatic civility.
Israel, whether one agrees with it or not, has a strong understanding of Tehran's modus operandi, largely because it has developed extensive expertise in countering terrorist networks, many of which are supported or enabled by the radicals in Tehran.
In this view, the world should recognize that the disintegration of the IRGC cannot be achieved through negotiation or a maritime blockade alone. Such an outcome requires a hybrid strategy centered on maximum economic pressure, sustained military pressure and the empowerment of the Iranian people to topple the clerical rule.
If decision-makers in Tehran conclude that the United States ultimately wants to avoid continued conflict, they may be incentivized to prolong the confrontation in a more attritional form, using stalling tactics and deception to buy time. In parallel, they could gradually escalate tensions below the threshold of an all-out war in an effort to extract concessions, particularly if they believe the US is seeking to end the conflict without committing to regime change.
The key, therefore, is to deprive the Islamic Republic of the notion that Trump seeks an off-ramp in this war and instead shift toward sustained pressure so that the IRGC faces only two options: total surrender or regime change.
I argue that the IRGC will not fully acquiesce to US conditions. Instead, it may accept certain demands while rejecting others in order to prolong the conflict and extend the diplomatic process.
The best way to neutralize the threats posed by the IRGC regime in Tehran is to take the following considerations into account:
In sum, the conflict involving the US and the IRGC should be resolved in a way that fundamentally weakens the current regime and increases the agency of the Iranian population.
Any negotiated settlement that allows the Islamic Republic to remain intact would be a strategic setback for the United States and Israel. The US and Israel have the people of Iran as the most powerful force against the regime in Tehran.
US President Donald Trump said Iran’s leadership had been largely eliminated and claimed the United States was “winning,” as he criticized Tehran for failing to agree to a deal during a rally in Florida on Friday.
“And we’re discussing - I spoke to him today. We’re discussing. It’s a little hard to figure out who their leaders are. Frankly, their leaders are gone. The first set is gone, the second set is gone. Khomeini is gone, and they were evil people. They killed 42,000 protesters — 42,000 in a period of two weeks," Trump said.
“But we have to get this done, and we’re really doing well. We’re just winning. If it were a fight, they’d stop — you know that expression. It’s true. But they’re not coming through with the kind of deal that we have to have, and we’re going to get this thing done properly. We’re not going to leave early and then have the problem arise again in three years," he added.
The One Free Press Coalition on Friday named imprisoned Iranian journalist Reza Valizadeh as the world’s most urgent press freedom case ahead of World Press Freedom Day.
Valizadeh, a former Radio Farda correspondent traveled to Iran in November 2022 after leaving the outlet to visit his family. He was arrested in October 2024 and remained in prison since.
The coalition’s annual “10 Most Urgent” list names journalists detained or threatened worldwide, many of whom face security-related or anti-state charges.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday the United States has “complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz and that the blockade on Iran will remain in place until freedom of navigation is restored.
“The BLOCKADE will continue, until there is pre-February 27 Freedom of Navigation,” Bessent wrote on X.
In the post, Bessent mocked Iranian leaders as “rats in a sewer pipe,” saying they were unable to understand “what’s going on in the outside world as they literally sit in the dark.”
He said Iran was facing a shortage of hard currency, including US dollars, as well as food and gasoline rationing.
“The entire international community has turned against you,” Bessent added.
Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi was urgently transferred from Zanjan Prison to a hospital on Friday after losing consciousness twice and suffering a severe deterioration in her health, her lawyer and the Narges Foundation said.
The Narges Foundation said in a statement Mohammadi was moved by ambulance to a local hospital in Zanjan in northwestern Iran after prison doctors concluded her condition could no longer be managed inside the prison.
She was admitted to the coronary care unit, according to her lawyer Mostafa Nili.
Nili said Mohammadi had experienced extreme blood pressure fluctuations, acute chest pain and repeated episodes of severe distress in recent days. He said she first fainted after a sudden drop in blood pressure and was given IV fluids and anti-nausea medication in the prison clinic.
After emergency services arrived, Mohammadi initially declined transfer to a Zanjan hospital, citing warnings from two cardiologists that her history of three angiographies and stent placement made treatment in Zanjan dangerous and required care by her own medical team, Nili said.
A few hours later, she lost consciousness again. A neurologist then ordered urgent hospitalization, saying her neurological condition had become the immediate clinical priority despite her serious cardiac issues.
The foundation said Mohammadi’s family had sought proper medical care for weeks and described the hospital transfer as a “last-minute” step that may have come too late.
It said specialists had recommended her transfer to Pars Hospital in Tehran, where her own medical team could treat her.
According to the foundation, Zanjan’s forensic medical commission had already recommended a one-month suspension of her sentence for medical treatment, but prosecutors made it contingent on approval from Tehran.
Mohammadi was re-arrested on December 12, 2025, and sentenced on February 8, 2026, to an additional seven and a half years in prison, bringing her cumulative sentence to more than 18 years.