Iran International
Tehran’s commentariat is warning that the most troubling outcome of the current negotiations with Washington may be neither war nor peace, but a prolonged “no deal–no war” limbo.
With uncertainty surrounding the talks and the fragile ceasefire nearing its end, several outlets have begun outlining possible trajectories for the negotiations. While some reduce the situation to a simple binary of “deal or no deal,” others argue that the more likely outcome may lie somewhere in between.
Writing in the pro-government Etemad daily, columnist Babak Kazemi described three possible scenarios for the talks: a limited agreement on less contentious issues, a pause in negotiations due to irreconcilable differences, or a collapse of the process if either side insists on maximalist demands.
The dispute appears to center on several core issues, foremost among them Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran insists on its right to enrichment, while President Donald Trump has been pressing for “zero enrichment.”
Iran is also seeking full or at least partial lifting of US sanctions, along with guarantees that any agreement reached with the Trump administration would be honored by future US governments.
Kazemi suggested that the two sides’ experience with the 2015 nuclear agreement could serve as a foundation for progress, arguing that détente and mutual economic benefits could help stabilize the region.
He added that even if a comprehensive agreement proves out of reach, a limited deal could create space for broader negotiations later.
Other commentators are more pessimistic.
The reform-leaning Fararu website described Iran–US tensions as “complicated and multi-layered,” arguing that the two sides are neither heading toward full-scale conflict nor toward a durable agreement.
Instead, it portrayed the situation as a protracted game of attrition in which each side seeks to gain leverage before the crisis eventually reaches some form of resolution.
Former diplomat Jalal Sadatian echoed this view, saying neither Tehran nor Washington appears willing to start a war, yet neither sees a clear path to a sustainable agreement. He added that Israel’s role as a regional actor capable of escalating tensions further complicates the landscape.
Another veteran diplomat, Fereidoun Majlesi, offered an even bleaker assessment, telling Fararu that the United States is unlikely to accept anything short of Iran’s “surrender” and that the chances of reaching an agreement in Islamabad are extremely narrow.
Analysts writing on the Asr Iran website outlined several possible outcomes, arguing that the worst scenario would be the continuation of the current “no deal–no war” status quo.
The editorial warned that prolonged limbo would deepen economic instability and create a precarious security environment in which war could erupt at any moment, potentially giving Israel and the United States time and space to prepare for further attacks.
According to Asr Iran, even if wartime conditions temporarily foster social cohesion, the long-term strain would weaken the country’s internal resilience.
For that reason, the editorial called for a comprehensive and durable agreement that removes the pretext for future economic or military pressure and moves Tehran and Washington toward non-hostility and lasting peace.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.