The pause in fighting has forced capitals across the Persian Gulf into a difficult reassessment.
For years, governments in cities like Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Manama believed their wealth, diplomacy and security ties with Washington insulated them from the region’s wars.
The latest conflict shattered that assumption.
Now, Persian Gulf Arab countries are facing damaged infrastructure, economic uncertainty, renewed fears over the Strait of Hormuz and a deeper strategic question: whether the United States remains enough.
The current arrangement is better understood as a tactical break than a durable ceasefire, one that gave both Washington and Tehran space to regroup while allowing each side to project strength at home and abroad, Ziada said.
More significantly, the countries most directly affected by Iranian strikes were largely left outside the diplomatic frame.
“They are very concerned especially [Persian] Gulf Arab countries who are thinking that they have been sidelined from this agreement for this short break or so-called ceasefire although they have been the ones most affected by this war," Ziada told the Eye for Iran podcast.
That sense of exclusion may accelerate a quiet but significant regional shift already underway.
Getting closer to Israel
“Ironically, all the signs tell us that Arab states are getting closer and closer to Israel,” she said.
The logic is increasingly practical. For many Persian Gulf Arab countries, the war exposed the limits of relying solely on American military guarantees while hosting US assets that can themselves become targets.
At the same time, Israel’s military posture and its willingness to directly confront Iran and its regional network is increasingly being viewed in some Persian Gulf capitals as a more immediate deterrent.
Many Arab states now appear to align more closely with Israel’s long-term regional objective: not destroying Iran as a nation but weakening the Islamic Republic and creating conditions for a future Iran capable of peaceful coexistence with its neighbors, Ziada said.
That growing overlap in strategic vision comes as frustration builds with other traditional regional actors.
In September 2025, Saudi Arabia signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) with Pakistan, a comprehensive security pact that mandates that any aggression against one country is considered an attack on both, enabling joint defense, intelligence sharing, and military cooperation.
However, the pact did not prevent Iran's airstrikes targeting Saudi energy facilities during the war.
Disappointment with Pakistan and also Egypt, both long viewed by some Persian Gulf Arab countries as fallback security partners, has deepened the sense among Arab leaders that they may need to diversify security relationships after both failed to meet expectations during the conflict, Ziada said.
The result could be a gradual move by more Arab states toward Israel not only diplomatically, but in intelligence-sharing, missile defense and broader regional deterrence.
The implications extend well beyond the ceasefire itself.
Iran’s leverage can no longer be measured only by what happens inside Tehran. Its real regional power now lies in the network it has built through Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and aligned political and militia structures in Iraq, Ziada said.
That means Persian Gulf security calculations are no longer centered solely on the Islamic Republic’s territory, but on its ability to project force through multiple Arab fronts.
Rather than lowering tensions, the ceasefire may harden Arab states views that Iran remains the region’s central long-term threat even in a weakened state.
For Persian Gulf Arab countries, that raises urgent questions about how to protect shipping lanes, desalination infrastructure, airports, energy exports and financial hubs if conflict resumes.
The answer may increasingly point toward a broader regional security architecture in which Israel plays a larger role, one of the most consequential geopolitical outcomes of the war so far, she said.
“We are really seeing a huge change in the Middle East right now. The Middle East will not be the same anymore.”
