Iran International
An Israeli security insider says Iran could be weeks away from reaching conditions for an uprising, as the US and Israel may soon judge the Islamic Republic weak enough to call on Iranians to take to the streets.
The current trajectory of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic is rapidly weakening the regime, said Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi, CEO of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, an influential body that advises the Israeli government on security matters.
“It’s a matter of weeks until the US and Israel will assess that this regime is weak enough,” Avivi told Eye for Iran podcast.
“And then there will be a call to the Iranian people to go to the streets and take over the country.”
“And when they will do that,” he added, “above their heads, there will be Israeli drones and American capabilities defending them from the air — and any attempt to hit the Iranian people will be met by an attack.”
From containment to collapse
Avivi described the war as unfolding in stages — from Hamas, to Hezbollah, to the fall of Assad's Syria and the Houthis — and now entering what he called its decisive phase: Iran itself.
Earlier stages focused on weakening those forces. Now, he said, the objective has shifted.
“This is about bringing down the Iranian regime.”
He pointed to the scale of the ongoing campaign, saying tens of thousands of targets have been struck, including air defenses, missile systems and naval assets — alongside sustained pressure on the regime’s internal enforcement arms.
“We are now attacking in Tehran Basij forces who are standing in junctions, monitoring society,” he said. “We’re dismantling all the Basij bases and the Revolutionary Guards.”
Breaking the regime’s grip
According to Avivi, the key to creating conditions for an uprising lies in dismantling the regime’s ability to control and repress its population.
“It’s about destroying the command and control of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij forces,” he said. “Eliminating their motivation to fight.”
He said there are already signs of strain within the system.
“We see defection in many units. Some units you have 90 percent defection,” Avivi said.
At the same time, he pointed to deepening economic pressure.
“There is a siege on Iran. They are not trading. How long can a country continue with no import, no export?” he said. “The currency is broken… it’s obvious where this is going.”
Larijani’s killing sends a signal
Avivi said the killing of Ali Larijani sends a clear message about the endgame — rejecting any scenario in which figures from within the Islamic Republic remain in power under a rebranded system.
He said the issue had come up directly in a recent high-level conversation.
“I met this week with a very, very prominent diplomat who asked me at length whether maybe Larijani will be the solution,” Avivi said — referring to the idea that a figure seen by some as more “moderate” could emerge as a compromise.
Avivi dismissed that notion outright.
“The guy is not moderate at all — not at all,” he said.
He argued that targeting Larijani underscores a broader objective.
“None of these leaders in this vicious regime can be rulers the day after,” he said. “Iran needs completely different leadership… a more open, more liberal country.”
He framed the strategy as one in which Israel and the United States set the conditions — but the decisive moment must come from within.
“Changing the regime is up to the Iranian people,” he said.
Signs of strain — but not collapse yet
That assessment is partially echoed by investigative journalist David Patrikarakos, who told Eye for Iran that sources describe a regime under pressure, with its security apparatus showing signs of disarray.
“They paint a picture of a regime in disarray,” he said, citing what he described as the “surgical decapitation” of layers of the security structure.
But he cautioned that internal fractures remain limited for now.
“We’re hearing reports… in the dozens… of people being killed for disobeying orders, people trying to defect,” he said. “I’ve not been told that it’s on a big scale.”
Patrikarakos said the real test will come later.
“To judge the success of this campaign, we’ve got to see what happens when the shooting stops — and what happens inside Iran.”
Washington’s next phase: the nuclear question
Investigative journalist Jay Solomon said sources in Washington suggest the next phase may focus on ensuring Iran cannot rebuild its nuclear program.
That includes concern over highly enriched uranium believed to be hidden in deeply buried sites such as Pickaxe Mountain.
“If they really decide they want to go in and secure that material, I don’t think there’s any other way,” Solomon said — referring to the possibility of US special forces entering underground facilities, an operation he described as “extremely dangerous.”
He also pointed to potential operations targeting Kharg Island, a key oil export hub tied to IRGC revenues.
But Solomon raised a critical concern: what comes after military success.
“The military side has been planned,” he said. “The post-conflict side is still very much up in the air… and that’s a concern.”
Despite those uncertainties, Avivi was unequivocal about where he believes events are heading.
“I foresee a change of regime,” he said. “This regime is not going to stay.”
And for Avivi, the broader objective goes far beyond Iran itself.
“The goal is clear,” he said. “To dismantle our enemies and change completely the Middle East for generations to come.”
Three protesters – Mehdi Ghasemi, Saleh Mohammadi and Saeed Davoudi – were executed on Thursday after being accused of killing two police officers during unrest in January, according to the judiciary-linked Mizan news agency.
Mohammadi, a national-level wrestler who had competed internationally, denied the charges in court and said his confession had been obtained under torture, according to accounts from those close to him. Members of Iran’s wrestling community had also defended him, saying he had no history of violence.
Mohammadi had represented Iran in international wrestling events, including the 2024 Saitiev Cup in Russia, where he won a bronze medal.
His execution has drawn comparisons to wrestler Navid Afkari, whose case became a symbol of the use of capital punishment following protests.
Afkari was sentenced to death and executed in Shiraz after being accused and convicted of murdering a security guard during the 2018 Iranian protests.
Athletes remain in custody
A growing list of athletes, coaches and referees remain detained, many linked to the recent wave of protests as well as earlier unrest.
Among those named are footballer Mohammad Hossein Hosseini, water polo goalkeeper Ali Pishevarzadeh, marathon runner Niloufar Pas, kickboxing champion Benjamin Naghdi, teenager footballer Abolfazl Dokht, and boxer Mohammad Javad Vafaei Sani.
Others include basketball coach Payam Vahidi, billiards coach Hamzeh Kazemi, aerobics coach Narges Heidari and former footballer Amir Reza Nasr Azadani, whose earlier arrest had already drawn international concern.
Several detainees are young athletes, including Amirhossein Ghaderzadeh, 19, and Abolfazl Dokht, raising alarm among campaigners who say they face similar charges and judicial processes.
Boxer Mohammad Mahshari, a bronze medalist at the 2024 Asian youth and under-23 championships, is also reported to be in custody.
The list extends to referees and lesser-known competitors, showing how deeply the crackdown has reached into Iran’s sporting community.
Pattern of executions after protest trials
Authorities accused those executed of acting on behalf of Israel and the United States, an allegation frequently used in cases linked to protests.
Cases linked to protest-related violence have repeatedly raised concerns over due process, including forced confessions, lack of access to legal representation and the exclusion of defense witnesses.
Saleh Mohammadi’s case followed that pattern, with those close to him saying CCTV evidence did not identify him and that alibi witnesses were not allowed to testify.
Sporting community under pressure
The crackdown has reverberated across Iran’s sporting world, where athletes have increasingly become visible participants in protests.
There is no single confirmed, comprehensive number specifically for athletes killed in the January 2026 protests. However, according to compiled lists from activists and sports networks, at least 65 athletes, coaches and referees have been identified among those killed during a crackdown in January.
The scale of the violence remains contested. Iran International reviewed documents proving that more than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during the January 8-9 crackdown on nationwide protests, making it the deadliest two-day protest massacre in history, while other estimates suggest it could be significantly higher.
Earlier, more than 200 athletes signed open letters urging the International Olympic Committee to take stronger action and questioning its continued engagement with officials they say are tied to Iran’s security apparatus.
For those still in detention, Mohammadi’s execution has deepened fears that similar cases could be pushed rapidly through the courts.
The combination of protest-related charges, allegations of foreign links and the use of forced confessions has left many families fearful and uncertain about the fate of detained athletes.
