As Trump weighs strikes on Iran, Pahlavi rallies in Munich

Ali Za’fari, deputy head of the coffee shop owners’ union, said cafés have faced waves of closures, legal cases and official sealing orders since protests began earlier this year.

“From the beginning of the protests, there were lots of reports about cafés – from sealing to judicial cases and the closure of many of them,” he was cited as saying by the website Kafenevesht.

He said business activity has not recovered despite some customers returning. “Customers more or less came back to cafés, but the situation is not like before,” Za’fari said, adding that many venues are still closing in silence or operating only partially.

“In the past three months, 25 percent of cafés have shut down,” he said. Za’fari added that conditions worsened during the protests and that the union’s efforts to defend café owners “barely” produce results.

The difficulties facing cafés reflect broader challenges for small businesses, particularly those dependent on daily customer traffic.

The crackdown on protests and the prolonged internet blackout have aggravated an already strained economy, leaving businesses facing uncertainty as Iran remains in a prolonged economic and political limbo.

The disruption has coincided with continued tensions and diplomatic talks unfolding under the shadow of potential military escalation, further complicating the outlook for investment and employment.

Job marker on ‘red alert’

Separate data based on figures from the online recruitment platform IranTalent indicate that hiring demand across the economy has also fallen sharply since internet restrictions were imposed last month.

According to the analysis, overall hiring demand has dropped by 57 percent since nationwide internet disruptions began. The decline has been especially severe among small and medium-sized companies.

In the first three weeks of the international internet blackout, demand for new hires at these firms fell by 74 percent compared with the period before the restrictions, according to the same data.

IranTalent’s chief executive, Asiyeh Hatami, described the job market as being in a “red alert” state and warned of a wave of employment contracts that may not be renewed at the end of the year.

The figures indicate a broad slowdown in hiring activity, particularly among smaller employers.

Za’fari said the pressure on cafés has continued even after the most visible enforcement actions subsided, with many businesses shutting down without public announcements.

While some cafés remain open, he said, the sector continues to face legal, economic and operational challenges following the unrest and related restrictions.

The emergence of Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the clear leader of the democratic opposition, should offer reassurance to President Trump, who is weary of protracted military entanglements. During the January uprising in Iran, Pahlavi’s name was the only one consistently chanted on Iran’s streets, even as the regime’s brutal crackdown claimed over 30,000 lives.

The Prince’s domestic support is matched by the massive backing of the Iranian diaspora, demonstrated last weekend in the “Global Day of Action,” with over a million people rallying in Munich, Toronto, Los Angeles, and other cities worldwide. That grassroots support is now translating into international recognition, underscored by Pahlavi’s momentous weekend in Munich.

This year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) reflected a meaningful shift. In a departure from past gatherings, officials from the Islamic Republic—including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—were disinvited. Instead, organizers invited Pahlavi, signaling that the international debate on Iran is shifting from regime normalization toward recognition of the Prince as a viable alternative.

At a press conference in Munich, the Crown Prince outlined a roadmap to democracy: drafting a new constitution, ratifying it via national referendum, and holding free elections under international oversight. On this global stage, he emerged as the architect of a credible, orderly transition—one the Trump administration and other governments could confidently support. Asked about his political ambitions, he called himself a bridge to free elections, not the final destination.

Pahlavi’s vision rests on four core pillars for a post-clerical Iran: the country’s territorial integrity; individual liberties and equality for all citizens; the separation of religion and state; and the Iranian people’s right to choose their version of a democratic form of government—whether a republic or a constitutional monarchy, like in the UK, Spain, or Sweden. These principles form the political foundation of his broader approach to national renewal.

That strategy also includes a detailed economic plan called the Iran Prosperity Project (IPP), which outlines the first 100 days following the regime’s collapse and the longer-term reconstruction of a free Iran. As Washington Post’s David Ignatius observed, IPP is a “superb transition blueprint” that is “smarter than anything the U.S. government or Iraqi exiles produced before the 2003 invasion.”

The plan is deliberate in its scope: “agency by agency, it details how to rebuild a cohesive Iran. It lists 34 military, intelligence and police organizations and describes the approach that should be taken to each—dissolving a few, retaining and vetting the others.”

IPP is supported by prominent business leaders. At the initiative’s rollout event, Uber’s Iranian-American CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, indicated that Uber—and other major companies—would “invest aggressively” in Iran within the first 100 days, adding, “The sky is the limit.”

Economic vision aside, Pahlavi has also proposed six ways the international community can help Iranians to liberate themselves: degrade regime repressive capacity by targeting IRGC leadership; deliver maximum economic pressure by blocking assets and dismantling ghost tankers; break information blockades with Starlink; hold the regime accountable by expelling Iranian diplomats and pursuing legal action; demand immediate release of political prisoners; and prepare for democratic transition by recognizing a legitimate transitional government.

That recognition of the inevitable regime change in Iran has gained momentum over the last month and was unmistakable in Munich. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared, “A regime that can only hold onto power through sheer violence and terror: its days are numbered.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said, “The world is witnessing a wave of change in Iran. Now is the time to double down on support for liberty.” Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand was unequivocal: “We will not open diplomatic relationships with Iran unless there is regime change. Period.” U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, waving the Lion and Sun flag at a Munich rally, proclaimed, “Liberation is at hand.”

International acknowledgement of Pahlavi’s leadership was further underscored by his meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a setting typically reserved for heads of state. Zelenskyy, whose country has been terrorized by Iranian Shahed drones, warned bluntly: “Regimes like the one in Iran must not be given time. When they have time, they only kill more.” Weeks earlier in Davos, he cautioned that rewarding brutality with survival sends a dangerous message: “Kill enough people and you stay in power.”

For his part, President Trump has said just days ago that regime change in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen.” During the height of what has become known as the Lion and Sun Revolution, he pledged support for protesters, posting that “help is on its way.” As his armada heads toward Iran, a rare moment in history is taking shape when a resolute leader of the free world can save lives, protect America from a regime that has sought “Death to America,” and cement his legacy as one of history’s greatest peacemakers.

At this Munich moment, all eyes are once again on Donald J. Trump. His decision, undoubtedly, hinges on the answer to “what happens next?” Reza Pahlavi’s emergence as a credible leader could tilt the scales toward regime change. History—and the Iranian people—await the President’s call.

A 17-year-old protester wounded during Iran’s January protests was later killed after being taken into custody by security forces, according to testimony and forensic analysis gathered by the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center (IHRDC).

Human rights investigators say evidence indicates Sam Afshari was alive when security forces detained him in the city of Karaj, but was later killed by a gunshot wound to the head consistent with an execution carried out after his arrest.

“The bullet entered through the back of his head and exited through his face," Shahin Milani, IHRDC Executive Director told Iran International.

"The injury he sustained during the protests was not the shot that killed him,” Milani said.

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US President Donald Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement with Washington but warned there would be “consequences” if talks fail, as US and Iranian officials prepare to meet in Geneva.

"So I'll be involved in those talks indirectly, and they'll be very important. We'll see what can happen. Typically, Iran's a very tough negotiator. They're good negotiators or bad negotiator. I would say they're bad negotiators, because we could add a deal instead of sending the B2s in to knock out their nuclear potential, and we had to send the B2s. I hope, I hope they're going to be more reasonable. They want to make a deal," Trump told reporters on Monday aboard Air Force One.

Asked if this looks like a near to impossible deal, he replied: “I think they want to make a deal. I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal. They want to make a deal.”

Human rights investigators say evidence indicates Sam Afshari was alive when security forces detained him in the city of Karaj, but was later killed by a gunshot wound to the head consistent with an execution carried out after his arrest.

“The bullet entered through the back of his head and exited through his face," Shahin Milani, IHRDC Executive Director told Iran International.

"The injury he sustained during the protests was not the shot that killed him,” Milani said.

Before leaving to join the protests, Sam sent a final message to his father on Jan 7.

“Dad, don’t tell mom anything. I’m going to fight for my rights. Iran is in danger. Please don’t tell my mother.”

His father, Parviz Afshari, who lives in Germany, would spend days searching for answers after his son disappeared.

According to Milani, testimony gathered from the family indicates that Sam’s initial injury during the protests was not fatal.

Residents living nearby Taleghani Square in Karaj saw that Sam had been wounded and attempted to bring him inside to help. Before they could do so, security forces arrived and dragged him away while he was still alive, according to his father’s account.

"The inhuman repressive forces dragged my son," Parviz told IRHDC in a video recording.

After that, he vanished.

“When his family eventually recovered his body, it was clear he had been shot again,” Milani said.

Where the fatal shooting occurred remains unclear. Sam’s father received conflicting accounts — one suggesting it may have happened at a medical facility and another claiming detainees were shot while being transported. Investigators say those details cannot yet be independently confirmed, but the available evidence indicates he was killed after arrest.

Sam's father described him as an exceptionally talented teenager — a computer science prodigy, a competitive swimming champion and fluent in multiple languages.

Milani said interviewing the father was deeply personal, underscoring how the profile of victims in Iran has changed over time.

“The father is nearly my age,” Milani said. “It forces you to realize that the young people being killed today are children who could have been our own.”

Sam Afshari’s case is part of a broader pattern emerging from Iran’s January crackdown, during which students and minors were among those killed. An Iranian teachers’ union has published the names of roughly 200 students killed during the protests, describing the list as both a record of loss and a demand for accountability.

At least 24 children, including a three-year-old, were killed by direct fire from security forces during Iran’s nationwide protests, according to the HANA Human Rights Organization. The group said it confirmed the identities of the children through on-the-ground research and cross-checking multiple sources.

HANA said the shooting of children was not an isolated incident but part of a systematic pattern, with gunfire in many documented cases directed at vital parts of the body.

For Sam's father - the loss is already painfully clear — a teenager who left home believing he was fighting for his future and never returned.

Sam had been preparing to join him in Germany later this year — a plan that ended before it could begin.