Former Senior Advisor to the US Special Representative for Iran
As President Trump weighs options against Iran, he faces a legacy‑defining choice that could reshape the century, with the Islamic Republic at its most precarious moment since 1979 after years of US pressure and a determined popular uprising.
The emergence of Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the clear leader of the democratic opposition, should offer reassurance to President Trump, who is weary of protracted military entanglements. During the January uprising in Iran, Pahlavi’s name was the only one consistently chanted on Iran’s streets, even as the regime’s brutal crackdown claimed over 30,000 lives.
The Prince’s domestic support is matched by the massive backing of the Iranian diaspora, demonstrated last weekend in the “Global Day of Action,” with over a million people rallying in Munich, Toronto, Los Angeles, and other cities worldwide. That grassroots support is now translating into international recognition, underscored by Pahlavi’s momentous weekend in Munich.
This year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) reflected a meaningful shift. In a departure from past gatherings, officials from the Islamic Republic—including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—were disinvited. Instead, organizers invited Pahlavi, signaling that the international debate on Iran is shifting from regime normalization toward recognition of the Prince as a viable alternative.
At a press conference in Munich, the Crown Prince outlined a roadmap to democracy: drafting a new constitution, ratifying it via national referendum, and holding free elections under international oversight. On this global stage, he emerged as the architect of a credible, orderly transition—one the Trump administration and other governments could confidently support. Asked about his political ambitions, he called himself a bridge to free elections, not the final destination.
Pahlavi’s vision rests on four core pillars for a post-clerical Iran: the country’s territorial integrity; individual liberties and equality for all citizens; the separation of religion and state; and the Iranian people’s right to choose their version of a democratic form of government—whether a republic or a constitutional monarchy, like in the UK, Spain, or Sweden. These principles form the political foundation of his broader approach to national renewal.
That strategy also includes a detailed economic plan called the Iran Prosperity Project (IPP), which outlines the first 100 days following the regime’s collapse and the longer-term reconstruction of a free Iran. As Washington Post’s David Ignatius observed, IPP is a “superb transition blueprint” that is “smarter than anything the U.S. government or Iraqi exiles produced before the 2003 invasion.”
The plan is deliberate in its scope: “agency by agency, it details how to rebuild a cohesive Iran. It lists 34 military, intelligence and police organizations and describes the approach that should be taken to each—dissolving a few, retaining and vetting the others.”
IPP is supported by prominent business leaders. At the initiative’s rollout event, Uber’s Iranian-American CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, indicated that Uber—and other major companies—would “invest aggressively” in Iran within the first 100 days, adding, “The sky is the limit.”
Economic vision aside, Pahlavi has also proposed six ways the international community can help Iranians to liberate themselves: degrade regime repressive capacity by targeting IRGC leadership; deliver maximum economic pressure by blocking assets and dismantling ghost tankers; break information blockades with Starlink; hold the regime accountable by expelling Iranian diplomats and pursuing legal action; demand immediate release of political prisoners; and prepare for democratic transition by recognizing a legitimate transitional government.
That recognition of the inevitable regime change in Iran has gained momentum over the last month and was unmistakable in Munich. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared, “A regime that can only hold onto power through sheer violence and terror: its days are numbered.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said, “The world is witnessing a wave of change in Iran. Now is the time to double down on support for liberty.” Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand was unequivocal: “We will not open diplomatic relationships with Iran unless there is regime change. Period.” U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, waving the Lion and Sun flag at a Munich rally, proclaimed, “Liberation is at hand.”
International acknowledgement of Pahlavi’s leadership was further underscored by his meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a setting typically reserved for heads of state. Zelenskyy, whose country has been terrorized by Iranian Shahed drones, warned bluntly: “Regimes like the one in Iran must not be given time. When they have time, they only kill more.” Weeks earlier in Davos, he cautioned that rewarding brutality with survival sends a dangerous message: “Kill enough people and you stay in power.”
For his part, President Trump has said just days ago that regime change in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen.” During the height of what has become known as the Lion and Sun Revolution, he pledged support for protesters, posting that “help is on its way.” As his armada heads toward Iran, a rare moment in history is taking shape when a resolute leader of the free world can save lives, protect America from a regime that has sought “Death to America,” and cement his legacy as one of history’s greatest peacemakers.
At this Munich moment, all eyes are once again on Donald J. Trump. His decision, undoubtedly, hinges on the answer to “what happens next?” Reza Pahlavi’s emergence as a credible leader could tilt the scales toward regime change. History—and the Iranian people—await the President’s call.
Human rights investigators say evidence indicates Sam Afshari was alive when security forces detained him in the city of Karaj, but was later killed by a gunshot wound to the head consistent with an execution carried out after his arrest.
“The bullet entered through the back of his head and exited through his face," Shahin Milani, IHRDC Executive Director told Iran International.
"The injury he sustained during the protests was not the shot that killed him,” Milani said.
Before leaving to join the protests, Sam sent a final message to his father on Jan 7.
“Dad, don’t tell mom anything. I’m going to fight for my rights. Iran is in danger. Please don’t tell my mother.”
His father, Parviz Afshari, who lives in Germany, would spend days searching for answers after his son disappeared.
According to Milani, testimony gathered from the family indicates that Sam’s initial injury during the protests was not fatal.
Residents living nearby Taleghani Square in Karaj saw that Sam had been wounded and attempted to bring him inside to help. Before they could do so, security forces arrived and dragged him away while he was still alive, according to his father’s account.
"The inhuman repressive forces dragged my son," Parviz told IRHDC in a video recording.
After that, he vanished.
“When his family eventually recovered his body, it was clear he had been shot again,” Milani said.
Where the fatal shooting occurred remains unclear. Sam’s father received conflicting accounts — one suggesting it may have happened at a medical facility and another claiming detainees were shot while being transported. Investigators say those details cannot yet be independently confirmed, but the available evidence indicates he was killed after arrest.
Sam's father described him as an exceptionally talented teenager — a computer science prodigy, a competitive swimming champion and fluent in multiple languages.
Milani said interviewing the father was deeply personal, underscoring how the profile of victims in Iran has changed over time.
“The father is nearly my age,” Milani said. “It forces you to realize that the young people being killed today are children who could have been our own.”
Sam Afshari’s case is part of a broader pattern emerging from Iran’s January crackdown, during which students and minors were among those killed. An Iranian teachers’ union has published the names of roughly 200 students killed during the protests, describing the list as both a record of loss and a demand for accountability.
At least 24 children, including a three-year-old, were killed by direct fire from security forces during Iran’s nationwide protests, according to the HANA Human Rights Organization. The group said it confirmed the identities of the children through on-the-ground research and cross-checking multiple sources.
HANA said the shooting of children was not an isolated incident but part of a systematic pattern, with gunfire in many documented cases directed at vital parts of the body.
For Sam's father - the loss is already painfully clear — a teenager who left home believing he was fighting for his future and never returned.
Sam had been preparing to join him in Germany later this year — a plan that ended before it could begin.
The trials were presided over by Judge Abolghasem Salavati, head of Branch 15 of Tehran’s Revolutionary Court, who is widely known for handing down severe sentences in protest-related and political cases, the sources said.
Salavati has been holding simultaneous virtual hearings in which detainees are tried in groups of 14, according to the sources.
Among those sentenced is Abolfazl Karimi, a detained protester who the sources said had told his family in a phone call that he had been subjected to forced confessions under beatings and torture.
Karimi is the father of a young child and previously worked as a motorcycle courier in eastern Tehran.
He was arrested on January 6 while returning from work in Tehran’s Hengam neighborhood, where he encountered two injured women whose legs had been hit by gunfire from security forces, the sources said.
When he went to assist them, officers shot his leg with pellet rounds and arrested him along with the two wounded women, the sources added.
After about a month in detention in Greater Tehran Prison, he was recently transferred along with around 50 other protesters to Ghezel Hesar Prison, the sources said.
In a later phone call, Karimi told his family he had been tortured without medical treatment for his wounds and, while blindfolded, was forced to sign papers containing confessions against himself, according to the sources.
In recent days, Iran’s judiciary has intensified the process of trying protesters detained during the nationwide protests and issuing death sentences, the sources said.
On Monday Tehran Revolutionary Court, also presided over by Salavati, sentenced 19-year-old Mohammadamin Biglari to death on the charge of “enmity against God,” and the case has been referred to the Supreme Court, the sources said.
Biglari was arrested on January 8 on Tehran’s Damavand Street.
His mother is deceased, and his father was unaware of his fate for weeks, searching for him among bodies in Kahrizak before authorities informed him after three weeks that his son had been detained, the sources said.
Separately, on Sunday, the judiciary announced the first hearing session for three detained protesters—Ehsan Hosseinipour Hesarloo, Matin Mohammadi and Erfan Amiri—on charges including allegedly setting fire to Seyed al-Shohada Mosque in Pakdasht and alleged participation in murder.
Other charges against the three were announced as “assembly and collusion to appear and act against the country’s internal security following calls on hostile social media, particularly the US president and the Zionist regime (Israel)…” according to the judiciary-affiliated Mizan News Agency.
Norway-based rights group Hengaw said the case against the three was marred by due process violations.
"The hearing was held despite reports that the detainees have been denied basic rights since their arrest, including access to a lawyer of their choice and contact with their families. They were subjected to intense pressure and torture during detention and compelled to provide forced confessions," Hengaw said.
Tens of thousands of people have been arrested during the nationwide protests, many facing heavy charges, the sources said.
Some families have reported being pressured by security bodies to refrain from speaking to media or publicly discussing the cases of detained relatives, the sources added.
