Iran-US talks seen yielding little as regional officials lower expectations – WSJ

Iran combined diplomatic maneuvering with military provocations this week as talks with the United States approached, in what the Wall Street Journal described as “a last-minute curveball aimed at leaving everyone else off balance.”

"Iran’s tactics present a challenge for Trump’s style of diplomacy, in which he prefers quick deals negotiated via a small number of trusted lieutenants," the report said.

According to the WSJ, Tehran abandoned a planned meeting in Turkey involving US and regional officials and instead pushed for narrower talks in Oman limited to its nuclear program and restricted to bilateral discussions with Washington. The shift came the same day Iran flew a drone toward a US aircraft carrier and sent gunboats to confront a US-flagged oil tanker.

Despite the flare-ups, US officials said diplomacy remained on the table. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that talks with Iran were still scheduled.

US and regional officials told the WSJ that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had been slated to attend the meeting with Iranian officials, though plans were not final. Regional officials said there was agreement in principle to meet in Oman on Friday, but that discussions over the scope of the talks and participation by other countries were ongoing.

The WSJ reported that Iranian officials have threatened to pull out of negotiations, while some US officials said Trump has considered walking away from the talks because of Iran’s military actions.

The paper said the episode underscored how Iran is seeking to apply pressure ahead of negotiations, as Washington pushes for broader talks covering missiles and regional activities while Tehran insists discussions focus solely on its nuclear program.

Iran and the United States are set to hold talks in Oman on Friday, using the same format as earlier rounds mediated by Muscat, Iran's ISNA news agency reported on Wednesday.

According to the report, “the negotiations are expected to mirror previous Iran–US nuclear discussions hosted by Oman, with Abbas Araghchi leading the Iranian delegation. Steve Witkoff is confirmed to attend as Washington’s chief negotiator, while the possible participation of Jared Kushner has also been raised.”

ISNA added that the talks will focus primarily on Iran’s nuclear file, with Tehran pressing for sanctions relief as a key demand.

In the first incident on Tuesday, an Iranian Shahed-129 surveillance drone approached the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea before being intercepted and shot down by a US Navy F-35C fighter jet. Several hours later, Iranian fast attack craft, supported by a surveillance drone, attempted to stop a US-flagged tanker in the Persian Gulf, prompting a response from a US destroyer.

ISW said the incidents fit the pattern of what it described as a “probing action,” which “seeks to test the strength, disposition, and reactions of an opposing force,” while also serving a broader signaling purpose.

“It is unclear how close the Shahed-129 came to the Lincoln, though the way that the Lincoln group responded to the drone’s approach can give Iran useful intelligence on how the US Navy will engage Iranian drones operating in its vicinity,” the think tank said.

ISW added that the pairing of the drone incident with the attempted interception of a US-linked tanker suggested a deliberate effort to showcase Iran’s capacity to challenge US naval activity. “These two incidents may be the beginning of an Iranian maritime escalation that seeks to deter a US strike by demonstrating Iran’s capability to challenge US naval activity,” it said.

The Shahed-129 is an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike drone, distinct from the Shahed-136 one-way attack drones used by Russia in Ukraine. ISW said Iran has used the Shahed-129 extensively across the Middle East to collect intelligence and conduct attacks against US and Israeli targets.

The United States and Iran are due to hold talks in Oman on Friday after Tehran requested a change of venue to keep negotiations focused solely on its nuclear programme, a regional official told Reuters on Wednesday.

The official said Iran asked to move the meeting from Turkey to Oman so the talks would be a continuation of previous nuclear negotiations held there, and to prevent the agenda from expanding to issues such as Tehran’s ballistic missile programme.

The regional official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Iran has insisted from the outset that discussions be limited to nuclear issues, while Washington has pushed to include other topics.

A source familiar with the matter said US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were expected to take part in the talks, along with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Foreign ministers from countries including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates had earlier been expected to attend, but the regional official said Tehran now wants the talks to be strictly bilateral with the United States.

Israel would be the first target of any Iranian retaliation if the United States launches an attack, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday.

“Israel will be Iran’s first target if the US attacks,” Hossein Daghighi told Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen television on Monday.

Daghighi said Iran’s military posture is based on deterrence and defense, but warned that any war would trigger an unpredictable and expansive response.

“Our strategy is deterrent and defensive and can impose a heavy cost on the enemy,” he said. “But if war breaks out, the intensity of our response will be such that it will be impossible for the enemy to calculate, and the scope of the conflict will expand.”