Millions wagered on Polymarket over possible US strikes on Iran
Millions of dollars have been wagered on Polymarket prediction markets on the timing of a possible US military strike against Iran and on the potential ousting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to market data and reports.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform where users can buy and sell outcome-based contracts using cryptocurrency or traditional payment methods, shows heavy trading in contracts tied to whether and when the United States might carry out aerial, drone or missile strikes on Iranian soil or at Iranian embassies, with volumes in the tens of millions of dollars.
Some bettors have lost substantial sums as timelines they wagered on passed without a strike occurring.
Further millions have been placed on contracts tied to the likelihood of Khamenei being removed from power, according to Polymarket’s listings.
The Iranian outlet Khabar Online has argued that the fear of being digitally cut off from unfolding events can resemble a form of mass FOMO, anxiety driven not by social media envy, but by enforced disconnection.
Beyond personal stress
The article says that the consequences extend far beyond individual stress. “Cutting the internet is not just a trauma at the individual level; it severely destroys interpersonal bonds and trust,” it said.
It also warned of what it called “anticipatory anxiety.” Even after access is partially restored, society remains on edge.
“Every slight drop in internet speed triggers waves of stress and panic over another shutdown,” the article added.
US-based psychotherapist Azadeh Afsahi said the effects mirror enforced isolation. “Clinically, shutting down the internet is equivalent to enforced isolation and the sudden loss of multiple coping mechanisms at once,” Afsahi told Iran International.
“Isolation is a well-established driver of anxiety and depression and significantly increases the risk of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts.”
She added that Iran’s psychological baseline is already fragile.
Decades of repression, violence, economic instability, and chronic uncertainty have severely compromised mental health, she said, and internet shutdowns “compound the existing trauma” and can “push already vulnerable individuals closer to psychological collapse.”
From isolation to overload
Afsahi said prolonged digital silence creates a dangerous psychological cycle: after days or weeks of isolation, people are suddenly exposed to graphic images and devastating news once access is partially restored.
The abrupt flood of information, she said, can overwhelm the nervous system, triggering panic attacks, dissociation, intrusive thoughts, trauma-related symptoms resembling PTSD, and an increased risk of suicide.
“This cycle – isolation followed by psychological overload – creates cumulative, long-term harm,” Afsahi said.
The effects are not confined to those inside Iran. Families, journalists, activists, and content creators abroad are also affected, as their mental wellbeing depends on connection and community.
Shutdown as a tool of control
Internet disruptions have become a familiar reality for Iranians in recent years. Sometimes nationwide, sometimes regional or temporary, shutdowns have emerged as a central tool used by authorities to control protests, slow the spread of information, and suppress evidence of repression.
During crises, restricted access heightens public anxiety while crippling digital businesses and essential online services.
The most recent shutdown followed the 12-day war with Israel in June, when internet access was disrupted for roughly six days. This time, however, several days of complete blackout were followed by only limited access to a heavily censored domestic intranet.
Nearly 25 days later, the restrictions persist, with only a trickle of tightly restricted access returning. Many people and businesses still lack access.
Coping at the margins
Some Iranians have traveled to border regions or neighboring countries to send business files, upload videos documenting the January 8-9 crackdown, or contact family members.
Meanwhile, informal volunteer networks abroad have attempted to provide access through anti-censorship tools such as Psiphon and its Conduit feature, offering slow and unstable connections to the outside world.
The government says the shutdown is necessary to protect national security and citizens’ lives. Concerns over potential cyberattacks may also play a role.
Technology researcher Mohammad Rahbari warned in Khabar Online that prolonged communication blackouts can undermine society’s psychological stability.
“The continuation of communication shutdowns, even if intended to protect citizens’ physical safety, can seriously damage psychological security – which is a core component of overall security,” he said.
