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EXCLUSIVE

Military strike on Iran now ‘virtually certain,’ Western source says

Jan 30, 2026, 22:00 GMT+0
U.S. Air Force Major Paul 'Loco' Lopez, F-22 Demo Team commander/pilot, flies above the U.S. Navy Blue Angels' iconic diamond formation, in Beaufort, South Carolina, U.S. April 25, 2019.
U.S. Air Force Major Paul 'Loco' Lopez, F-22 Demo Team commander/pilot, flies above the U.S. Navy Blue Angels' iconic diamond formation, in Beaufort, South Carolina, U.S. April 25, 2019.

Decision-making circles in the United States and Israel have moved past diplomacy with Iran, viewing military action as effectively decided, with only the timing still under debate, a Western source familiar with coordination talks told Iran International.

According to the source, the key question in current meetings is no longer whether an attack will take place, but when an appropriate operational and political window will emerge — a window that could open in the coming days or take shape over the course of several weeks.

The source emphasized that, at this stage, the logic being discussed — unlike in previous periods — is not based on “reaching a new agreement.”

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he planned to speak with Iran, even as he sent another warship to the Middle East and the Pentagon chief said the military would be ready to carry out whatever the president decided.

Iran however says it will not engage in negotiations unless President Trump stops threatening it.

The source told Iran International that recent assessments identify the primary objective as delivering a decisive blow to maximally weaken and ultimately collapse Iran’s governing structure; a scenario that, in his words, is not comparable in scale or intensity to anything Iran has experienced so far.

The source said the operation under discussion would be “unprecedented,” stressing: “This time, we will be facing an attack the likes of which have not been seen before.”

According to the source, joint US-Israeli discussions have also concluded that current conditions for action differ from the past.

He said decision-makers believe the present situation has created a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” and that, as a result, willingness to accept risk — compared with the 12-day war — has increased markedly.

The source said that during the 12-day war last June, both Washington and Tel Aviv avoided taking greater risks, but the prevailing view now is that the current moment must be seized.

In June, Israel launched a surprise military offensive against Iran, followed by US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.

The attacks were launched when Iran failed to reach an agreement with the United States within a 60-day deadline set by Trump.

The US president said on Friday that he had directly communicated a deadline to Iran for reaching a deal, but offered no further details.

'Israel on full alert'

The source also said Israel’s role could alter the scope of the scenario ahead. According to him, if Israel becomes directly involved — something he said has been planned for — the scale of the operation would expand, and in that case, the 12-day war would appear “very small” compared with the plans currently on the table.

The source said Israel is on full alert and that one scenario under discussion involves waiting for a “spark” to trigger the next phase, such as Iran attempting to fire a first missile toward Israel, which could then be used as justification for launching a far broader and more destructive campaign.

“The decision has been made. This will happen. The only question is when.”

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