Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday the World Economic Forum cancelled his planned appearance at its annual meeting in Davos due to what he described as political pressure from Israel and its "proxies" in the United States.
“The World Economic Forum cancelled my appearance in Davos on the basis of lies and political pressure from Israel and its United States-based proxies and apologists,” he said in a post on X.
“There is one fundamental truth to the recent violence in Iran: We had to defend our people against armed terrorists and ISIS-style killings openly backed by Mossad,” Araghchi added.
The latest wave of protests in Iran once more demonstrated both the depth of popular opposition to the Islamic Republic and the limits of mass mobilization in the absence of a decisive breakdown in the regime’s coercive capacity.
As observed by numerous scholars of revolution, opposition forces are almost never in a strong position to defeat a regime’s armed forces. Revolutions occur when, for whatever reason, those armed forces stop suppressing the opposition.
This can happen for different reasons. One is that personnel within the armed forces simply refuse to carry out orders to suppress the opposition, as occurred in the democratic revolutions in much of Eastern Europe in 1989 and in subsequent “color revolutions” elsewhere.
The Islamic Republic’s armed forces, however, have so far proven quite willing to suppress Iranian citizens.
Another possibility is that the regime is more frightened of its armed forces than of its opponents, and therefore does not allow them to act forcefully for fear that they might seize power after suppressing the opposition.
This is what happened in Iran in 1979. But while Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was unwilling to use force effectively against his opponents, the Islamic Republic has shown no such hesitation.
Yet another scenario is that a split develops within the ranks of an authoritarian regime’s armed forces, with significant elements defecting to the opposition.
A defection by a key commander can quickly cascade, as occurred over just a few days in the Philippines in 1986. When such a defection occurs, the remaining security forces are confronted not merely with suppressing unarmed civilians, but with fighting armed men like themselves—a prospect they often wish to avoid.
This has not yet occurred in Iran, but in my view it remains the likeliest path to bringing down the Islamic Republic.
What would it take for this to happen? Most probably, it would require officers to feel confident that their institution would survive the regime’s downfall and remain intact under a new political order.
The commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are less likely to feel such confidence than Iran’s regular armed forces. But even if elements of the regular military were willing to defect to the opposition, they would likely still have to fight the IRGC—unless the latter collapsed when faced with the prospect of confronting the regular army.
These are the fraught calculations confronting those within Iran’s armed forces who share the population’s opposition to the regime.
The Trump administration might be able to affect this calculus through attacks that degrade the IRGC, but not Iran’s regular armed forces.
In other words, for the regular military to risk turning against the regime, it would have to believe both that it could defeat the IRGC and its Basij allies, and that it would itself survive the fall of the Islamic Republic.
Alternatively, some kind of deal would have to be made with IRGC commanders, assuring them of integration into a new regime’s armed forces.
On its face, of course, such an idea is utterly repugnant.
There is also the hope that rank-and-file members of the regime’s armed forces might refuse orders to fire on demonstrators and instead turn their weapons against their commanders and the regime. This, however, does not appear likely.
That being the case, the only viable path to bringing down the regime may be some form of accommodation with key elements of its armed forces.
The Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy might make it more open to attempting this. But America’s authoritarian Arab allies may be even more fearful of a democratic Iran than of a weakened Islamic Republic. The mere existence of a democratic Iran could inspire democratic movements in Arab countries—something their rulers are keen to avoid.
Conservative Israeli governments, too, have long taken a dim view of democratic movements in Muslim countries, which they do not expect to be as accommodating as certain authoritarian Arab governments that have signed the Abraham Accords.
Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors, in particular, can therefore be expected to lobby the Trump administration about the dangers and unpredictability of political change in Iran.
Unfortunately, all this suggests that without key defections from within Iran’s armed forces—or efforts by the United States or other outside powers to encourage them—the Islamic Republic is more likely than not to remain in power.
The best hope for Iran’s democratic opposition is to secure an accommodation with key elements of the armed forces that would trigger the kind of security-force defections seen in successful democratic revolutions elsewhere.
This is far easier said than done. But where it has happened, it has often come suddenly and unexpectedly.
I sincerely hope this will happen in Iran.
Iran's intelligence agents detained and questioned Omid Ravankhah, head coach of Iran’s national under-23 football team, for several hours on Monday after he arrived in Tehran from Dubai, people familiar with the matter told Iran International.
Intelligence agents confiscated Ravankhah’s passport before allowing him to leave the airport. He was instructed to report to a security body on Tuesday, the people said.
According to the people, Reza Naghipour, the caretaker manager of the national under-23 team, has threatened Ravankhah over his public support for the people of Iran. Naghipour had previously threatened former footballer Ali Karimi with death, they said.
Speaking at a press conference following Iran’s match against Lebanon at the Asian Championship, last Tuesday, Ravankhah voiced explicit support for what he described as the Iranian people’s national revolution against the Islamic Republic.
“It is my social duty, in these circumstances, to stand alongside my people, and no matter what consequences it may have for me, I hope their voices are heard,” he said.
“Unfortunately, for years now in my country, the management of many issues has taken place at the lowest possible level, and people have no right to any form of protest. From here, I want to be the voice of my people, who have endured many hardships in these days,” he added.
“Violence in Iran” ranked by a wide margin as the top concern among respondents in a poll published on the European Parliament’s official account on X.
As of Monday evening, the poll had recorded 34,270 votes, with 98.4% of participants selecting “violence in Iran” as the issue that interested them most.
By comparison, 1.3% chose Greenland’s integrity, while illegal AI deepfakes and medicine shortages received 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
The poll is set to remain open for another 17 hours, according to the post.
As Iran endures a nationwide internet shutdown in the wake of the deadliest crackdown on protestors in decades, families abroad are using satellite television to try to reach loved ones cut off from the outside world.
A Telegram-based chatbot run by Iran International allows users to submit short messages that may be aired on television, defying the blackout.
The chatbot was launched in late December, shortly before protests spread across Iranian cities and was meant to collect photos, videos and testimonials from people inside Iran. Now the information is flowing in the other direction.
Before the shutdown, the network said it was receiving more than 10 messages a minute from users inside Iran, many of them sending videos and first-hand accounts of protests and arrests.
The tool was a key means of relaying events inside Iran to the outside world, as foreign media continue to face tight restrictions on reporting from the country and the internet shutdown which began on January 8 largely cut off that flow of information.
A tool repurposed
With most global websites blocked, social media unavailable and SMS messaging down, many people inside Iran have little or no access to the internet. Some can still make international phone calls, but the connections are unstable and expensive.
People outside Iran are mostly unable to call into the country at all.
As a result, families abroad have begun using the chatbot to send short personal messages, hoping their relatives inside the country will see them on the satellite broadcasts which are one of the few means of getting information from outside.
The network displays a QR code during live programs. Viewers outside Iran can scan it or use the Telegram handle @intlmedia_bot to submit messages, some of which are then shown on air.
Since the shutdown began, the chatbot has received more than 60,000 messages, according to the broadcaster.
How the system works
The network said it has long relied on staff to review and verify user-submitted material, but introduced automated tools to help manage the growing volume of messages.
Mahdi Tajik, an editorial lead at Iran International, said the system does not store personal data, an issue that many users worry about during periods of unrest.
Tajik said the idea of using the chatbot to relay family messages emerged after the internet shutdown cut off millions of Iranians abroad from their relatives.
“Within a day, more than 60,000 messages came in,” he said. “Many people were worried about their families. Many spoke about hope and about freedom being near.”
Some users inside Iran who managed to briefly connect to the internet told the network that seeing the messages had given them comfort, he added.
'My dear husband ...'
Many of the notes are addressed clearly to specific people, often including names, cities and family details.
“My dear husband, Shabnam and I are fine. I hope you are well in Behbahan,” one message read.
Another said: “Marjan from New Zealand ... I hope you are okay. I found no way to reach you. I hope you see this message.”
A third listed several names: “Hello to Parvin, Giti, Fereshteh, Farzaneh, Houshang, Mohsen, Alireza. I am worried about you all. I hope for our beloved Iran and to see you again. Mohammad, Canada.”
Another woman wrote: “Sister Leila, my beautiful Helia and Helna. I love you so much. I am very worried about you and miss you. Take care of yourselves and our whole family. Parinaz from San Diego.”
Editors say many of the notes come from people whose spouses, parents or children are inside Iran with no way to communicate.
The messages often focus on reassuring loved ones rather than grim news events.
Pressure on access
Satellite television remains one of the few ways information can still enter Iran. Authorities, however, have sought to limit access in some areas, including by seizing satellite dishes, according to people familiar with the situation.
At the same time, Iranians abroad have taken to the streets in cities across Europe, North America and Australia to show support for protesters at home, holding rallies and vigils and calling for international pressure on Tehran.
The messages sent through the chatbot do not allow two-way communication, and there is no guarantee they will be seen by their intended recipients.
Still, for families separated by borders and the internet shutdown, they offer one of the few remaining ways to penetrate the current digital iron curtain.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would respond with unprecedented force if Iran were to attack, as he addressed regional tensions during a parliamentary debate on Monday.
“If Iran makes a mistake and attacks us, we will act with a force that Iran has not yet experienced,” Netanyahu said.
“No one can predict what will happen in Iran, but whatever happens, Iran will not return to what it was,” he added.
