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Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday dismissed media reports about his recent talks with Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff.
"Messages between Iran and the US are exchanged directly or, when necessary, through intermediaries," he told the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News.
"No direct contact or dialogue has taken place between Iran and the US."
The UN Security Council’s decision not to lift sanctions on Iran has heightened the stakes for Tehran, with hardliners pushing for nuclear escalation, reformists urging engagement, and a public already strained by inflation.
Hardliners and ultra-hardliners in Tehran, who have long dismissed the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) as a “total failure,” downplayed the impact of the UN’s decision. For them, renewed sanctions are little more than symbolic.
“In the past, sanctions far harsher than these have been imposed; this is simply a psychological tactic intended to impact our economy,” hardline lawmaker Hosseinali Haji-Deligani told ILNA.
Meanwhile, Kayhan newspaper, linked to the Supreme Leader’s office, and other hardline outlets such as Vatan-e Emrouz have urged Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In an editorial titled “Is it still not time to leave the NPT after 22 years of costly negotiations?!” the paper argued for building a bomb to “fully strengthen national deterrence.”
Ahmad Naderi, a member of parliament’s presiding board, echoed this stance, insisting that “acquiring nuclear weapons is the only way to preserve Iran’s territorial integrity and national security.”
“Withdrawing from the NPT, adopting a policy of ambiguity and ultimately testing the atomic bomb is the only option that can spare Iran the fate of Iraq and Libya,” said Naderi.
“Experience has shown that countries without nuclear deterrence eventually become victims of invasion or regime change. The time has come to make hard but necessary decisions.”
Warning of a deepening crisis, push for policy change
Others caution that the impact will be severe. Journalist Azadeh Mokhtari argued on social media that the Iranian people will once again bear the brunt of political maneuvering: “The return of UN sanctions means increased economic pressure, reduced access to essential goods and medicine, and a deepening livelihood crisis.”
Meanwhile, reformists are calling for urgent diplomacy. Azar Mansouri, head of the Reform Front, warned that “immediate and maximal use of diplomatic capacity to prevent a global consensus against Iran is an unavoidable necessity.”
She stressed that the window of opportunity for negotiations is closing fast, with reinstated UN resolutions carrying “wide-ranging international consequences.”
Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, a reformist politician, went further, telling Etemad newspaper: “Iran stands on the brink of a historic choice: either insist on the illusion of costly deterrence and a single-track foreign policy, which yields nothing but isolation and domestic erosion, or acknowledge the reality of rival powers.”
He added that the world today is “waiting for a change in Iran’s language and behavior, not a repetition or justification of the past.”
Doubts over Russia and China
Hardliners often argue that Russia and China will help Iran weather sanctions. Yet that view has drawn criticism even from conservative voices. Journalist Ali Gholhaki dismissed the notion: “At least in China’s case, it’s just empty talk! Industrial and economic managers understand the reason well. They have seen examples of this in just the past few days.”
Mohammad-Ali Hanaei, head of the Nations Diplomacy Think Tank, told Etemad that Beijing profits from buying Iranian oil cheaply and has little incentive to back sanctions relief. He urged Tehran to consider “logical restrictions” as a way to manage the crisis.
Moscow has suggested it might mediate. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s envoy to international organizations in Vienna, told Al Mayadeen that Russia and China are preparing a joint initiative to resolve the crisis, though he offered no details.
Diplomatic openings still possible?
Some experts still see potential for compromise. Economics professor Alireza Soltani told Khabar Online that the diplomatic window is not yet closed, while cautioning against “emotional reactions.”
Even if previous UN resolutions are reinstated, he argued, a comprehensive deal remains possible “provided there is political will from both Iran and the United States.”
Foreign policy analyst Morteza Makki raised the possibility of a “miracle” if Tehran can strike a temporary arrangement with the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) in the coming days or at the UN General Assembly.
Pezeshkian-Trump Meeting Debate
At home, debate is intensifying over whether President Masoud Pezeshkian should meet US President Donald Trump during his upcoming trip to New York.
Reformist cleric Mohammad-Taghi Fazel-Meybodi called such a meeting “the last chance of the system,” recalling that a missed opportunity between Mohammad Khatami and Bill Clinton two decades ago paved the way for today’s sanctions.
Yet many doubt Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will allow it, having denied similar requests from both Khatami and Hassan Rouhani.
Iran’s gas deficit will double in the next 15 years, reaching “terrifying” heights, a senior advisor to the president has warned.
“If the gas imbalance continues at this rate, by the year 2041 we will be facing a 512-million-cubic-meter shortfall. This figure is terrifying,” Ali Rabiei told Tehran media this week.
Such a gap would leave the government unable to meet two-thirds of domestic demand. The warning is stark given that Iran holds 33 trillion cubic meters of proven gas reserves, the world’s second largest after Russia.
Yet a mix of delayed field development, lack of energy diversification, declining reservoir pressure, and systemic inefficiencies has already created an unsustainable deficit.
Parliament’s Research Center estimates a current shortfall of 150 million cubic meters per day, rising above 250 million in peak winter—roughly equal to Turkey’s entire seasonal consumption.
Heavy reliance on gas
Around 70% of Iran’s energy consumption depends on natural gas, according to the Ministry of Petroleum. Clean energy contributes barely 1% of electricity generation, while over 90% comes from thermal power plants, most of them gas-fired.
By comparison, Turkey produces 40 times more electricity from renewables.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) puts Iran’s current daily output at about 750 million cubic meters. After a decade of 5% annual growth, production growth slowed to just 1% last year.
Even with new investments, the IEA projects output could shrink by as much as 40% without substantial investment by the decade’s end.
Decline and waste
Nearly three-quarters of Iran’s gas comes from South Pars, a giant offshore reservoir shared with Qatar.
The field entered the second half of its lifecycle last year, with output expected to fall by 30 million cubic meters annually due to declining pressure.
Qatar has invested heavily to offset this decline, deploying massive 20,000-ton platforms with industrial-scale compressors and signing $29 billion in contracts with global energy majors.
Iran once had a similar plan under a $5 billion deal with TotalEnergies and CNPC in 2015, but both firms withdrew three years later when US president Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal.
The technology remains concentrated in Western companies, leaving Iran reliant on smaller 4,000-5,000-ton platforms that experts say will not halt decline.
Iran also loses huge volumes of gas to waste.
The IEA and World Bank estimate daily losses of 88 million cubic meters through leaks, flaring, and inefficiencies. This makes Iran the world’s second-largest gas flarer after Russia, and the fourth-largest methane emitter after China, the U.S., and Russia.
Iran’s paradox is clear: a country sitting on the world’s second-largest gas reserves is sliding toward a severe energy crunch.
Without major investment, technological access, and diversification, shortages will deepen—leaving households and industries exposed to chronic power cuts and mounting economic strain.
A senior Basij commander downplayed the impact of the return UN sanctions on Iran, saying it amounted to psychological pressure rather than real impact.
“The snapback mechanism is more psychological pressure than material pressure. What makes us victorious against the enemy is maintaining unity,” Hossein Maroufi, deputy coordinator of the Basij Organization said.
An Iranian lawmaker said Tehran carried out a successful security test of an intercontinental missile on Thursday night.
“Two nights ago, we tested one of the country’s most advanced missiles, which had not been tested until now, and it was successful. I want to say that even under these circumstances, we are conducting a security test of an intercontinental missile,” Mohsen Zanganeh, a member of the Iranian parliament, told state broadcaster IRIB.
“Until now, our diplomatic team had resisted. We should not turn our strengths into weaknesses,” he added.
Zanganeh said that Iran would not abandon uranium enrichment or step back from its missile program.
