Iran retains the ability to endanger freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, where about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports pass, an Israeli security think tank said after Tehran’s latest naval drills.
Persian Gulf exercise as warning
In August, Iran staged its first major naval exercise since the June war with Israel. The two-day drill covered the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. State media showed launches of Qadir and Nasir anti-ship missiles, Ababil drones and electronic warfare systems.
“Iran used this exercise to demonstrate that it can target both military and commercial vessels,” Alma Research and Education Center wrote in a report. Footage of a drone tracking a container ship was described as a direct warning to global shipping companies.
Khamenei representative raises oil price threat
The assessment comes after a representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged restrictions on Western shipping in the strait. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, told the state broadcaster last week that such a move could drive oil prices to $200.
“We can impose restrictions against the United States, France, Britain and Germany in the Strait of Hormuz and not allow them to navigate,” Shariatmadari said. “Just by announcing such a restriction, the oil price will surge to $200, and the biggest economic blow will be dealt to the enemy.”
Global warnings
Western governments have said any closure would have severe consequences. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in June that it would be “economic suicide” for Iran.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the idea “extremely dangerous,” while British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said it would be “a monumental act of self-harm.”
Iran has never attempted a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it has repeatedly seized merchant ships in the Persian Gulf. Security analysts say its mines, fast boats, missiles, and special forces give it multiple options to disrupt global commerce.
