The extent of damage from recent US strikes on Iran’s Fordow centrifuges remains uncertain, The New York Times reported on Wednesday, with experts questioning President Donald Trump’s assertion that the site was completely obliterated.
US aircraft dropped two cascades of six GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on Fordow’s ventilation shafts on June 22.
A Defense Department official told the Times the bombs likely did not penetrate into the underground centrifuge chambers, and that the plan instead relied on shockwaves, pressure, and fire to disable equipment.
The report stressed that only the Pentagon—with access to classified data and advanced computer simulations—can assess the actual scale of destruction.
Experts offered three main scenarios, depending on the shafts’ design, the surrounding geology, and the reinforcement of the concrete.
If the shafts were built in a straight line, the bombs could have penetrated more deeply, transmitting destructive force downward. But if constructed in zig-zag formations, the underground halls may not lie directly beneath the shafts, shielding them from the blasts.
For the attack to fully succeed, shockwaves would have needed to reach depths of 260 to 360 feet underground.
Shafts, rocks, concrete
Geologists cited by the Times said academic studies suggest the presence of ignimbrite, a rock formation that could have absorbed much of the explosive energy. Another expert said volcanic tuff, if present, would have had a similar shock-absorbing effect.
The report also examined Iran’s use of construction materials, noting that if steel fibers were mixed into the concrete, they would have significantly strengthened the bunkers.
That could have reduced the effectiveness of the bombs, though experts agreed the ventilation shafts were natural weak points in Fordow’s design.
Trump vs. experts
Several experts doubted the strikes amounted to a “complete obliteration.”
One mechanical engineer said if the attack was based on precise geological surveys and ventilation mapping, the damage could still be significant. Another noted that if intense fires followed the blasts, Iran might be left with little recoverable equipment.
Trump, who ordered the operation, has continued to describe the attack in absolute terms.
On Tuesday, he said both he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be considered “war heroes” for their roles.
“We wiped out Iran’s entire nuclear capability overnight,” Trump said. “Iran was four weeks from a nuclear bomb — and we took it out.”
