The contained spike and swift retreat in oil prices during the Israel-Iran war highlight a major shift in global energy dynamics: Middle East conflicts no longer move markets as they once did, according to an opinion piece by Reuters.
Brent crude rose 15% from under $70 on June 12 to $81.40 after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—but quickly fell back to $67 following a ceasefire and limited Iranian retaliation. There was no disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply remained steady.
The restrained market response contrasts sharply with past crises,energy columnist Ron Bousso wrote. The 1973 oil embargo, 1979 Iranian revolution, and 1990 Persian Gulf War each triggered price surges of 50% or more. This time, traders appeared less alarmed.
The analysis points to improved transparency—thanks to satellite tracking and real-time data—as well as better infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE now export through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Regional producers also maintain storage in Asia and Europe, reducing short-term supply risk.
The author said that perhaps the world is less reliant on Middle Eastern oil. OPEC’s share of global supply has dropped to 33%, from over 50% in the 1970s, as output rises in the US, Brazil, and Canada.
The message from markets: Middle East flashpoints still matter—but they no longer dictate the price of oil, Bousso concluded.
