Ceasefire brings calm but reveals Iran's bitter divides

The judiciary’s official news outlet, Mizan, reported on Wednesday that Edris Aali, Azad Shojaei, and Rasoul Ahmad Mohammad were put to death at Urmia Central Prison in northwest Iran.

The three were charged with "corruption on earth" and "enmity against God," accusations often levied in cases involving alleged collaboration with foreign governments.

Authorities said the men had worked to smuggle components hidden in shipments of alcoholic beverages, which they claim were ultimately used in the assassination of a high-ranking Iranian official.

While Iranian state media did not name Fakhrizadeh directly in its recent coverage, the allegations correspond with earlier reports linking the men to his killing.

Fakhrizadeh, a senior officer in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and a prominent figure in its nuclear development efforts, was shot dead in an attack east of Tehran in November 2020. Iran has blamed Israel for orchestrating the assassination.

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Contested confessions and accusations of torture

Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the case. According to an exclusive report by Iran International, all three men—reportedly Kurdish cross-border porters known as kolbars—were convicted based on confessions obtained under severe duress.

Aali and Shojaei were reportedly detained for months in Ministry of Intelligence facilities before being transferred to Urmia Prison.

Family members told media outlets the men denied involvement and said their televised confessions were extracted under torture. Ahmad Mohammad, an Iraqi national from the Kurdish city of Sulaimaniyah, was arrested two years after the killing, allegedly after his phone number was found in Aali’s contact list.

Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the assassination, though officials have not denied involvement. In the years following the incident, Israeli media and intelligence sources have described it as a remote-controlled, AI-assisted operation using a weapon smuggled into Iran in parts and reassembled inside the country.

An Israeli intelligence officer told Channel 12 in 2022 that the operation relied on facial recognition to avoid harming Fakhrizadeh’s wife, who was in the car with him, and took less than three minutes to carry out.

Iran’s former Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi said in 2022 that efforts to apprehend the main perpetrators had failed, with several suspects fleeing the country shortly after the attack.

Fakhrizadeh, long described by Western intelligence agencies as the architect of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, was sanctioned by the United Nations and had survived previous assassination attempts.

According to the report, the arrests targeted what authorities described as an “active espionage and sabotage network” that intensified operations after Israel’s attack on June 12, which killed several senior Iranian military and nuclear figures.

Those killed included IRGC commanders Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri, nuclear scientist Ali Akbar Tehranchi, and former nuclear chief Fereydoon Abbasi, the report said.

Those detained are accused of conducting intelligence operations for Israel, including controlling micro aerial vehicles (MAVs) and suicide drones, building improvised explosives, photographing sensitive military installations, and transmitting data to Israeli forces. Fars said more than 10,000 MAVs were seized in Tehran alone.

The arrests were based on public tips and security operations and were concentrated in the provinces of Kermanshah (126), Isfahan (76), Khuzestan (62), Fars (53), Lorestan (49), and the capital Tehran, where exact figures have not been released. The official numbers exclude detained foreign nationals.

The US-based human rights website HRANA reported on Wednesday that 823 Iranian citizens were on political or security-related charges since the outbreak of the war.

According to the report, 286 people were detained for their online activities, including sharing content about Israel’s attack on Iran.

The total number of arrests made by Iranian security and law enforcement forces on national security grounds has reached 537, HRANA said.

Iran’s judiciary announced that three men convicted of espionage for Israel — Majid Mosayebi, Esmail Fekri, and Mohammad Amin Mahdavi-Shayesteh — were executed over the past two weeks.

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Emergency bill for war espionage

Iran’s parliament passed an emergency bill this week to increase penalties for espionage and collaboration with “hostile states,” allowing suspects to be tried under wartime conditions.

Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei said those arrested in the context of Israel’s recent attacks would be prosecuted under “wartime legal provisions.”

Judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir said on state TV that current espionage laws are “too general” and inadequate for addressing recent cases, adding that legal reforms are needed to handle detainees linked to the conflict with Israel.

The bill, passed with 221 votes in favor, none against, and one abstention out of 223 members present, would bar the UN nuclear watchdog’s inspectors from accessing Iran’s nuclear facilities. The legislation must now be ratified by the Supreme National Security Council. 

IAEA access blocked unless 'security guaranteed'

Parliamentary presidium member Alireza Salimi said the bill prohibits IAEA inspectors from entering Iran unless the safety of Iran’s nuclear facilities and peaceful activities is “guaranteed”—a determination that would fall to the Supreme National Security Council.

The legislation’s conditions for resuming cooperation with the IAEA include, full assurance of Iran’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, guarantees of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment under Article 4 of the nuclear Non-ProliferationTreaty (NPT), confirmation that the UN Security Council will not trigger the “snapback” mechanism under Resolution 2231.

The bill further criminalizes any act of allowing IAEA inspectors into the country without such guarantees and applies to both safeguards and additional protocol cooperation.

Parliament also voted to impose penalties on officials permitting unauthorized access.

“This legislation is a response to attacks on our sovereignty and peaceful nuclear infrastructure by the Zionist regime and the United States,” Salimi said.

Tehran says it does not seek nuclear weapons and suggests a resolution adopted this month by the IAEA declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations paved the way for Israel's attacks.

The move comes amid a halt in fighting between Iran and Israel, after 12 days of missile and drone attacks that saw unprecedented strikes on Israeli cities and Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure.

No peace, only pause

While the guns have fallen silent for now, Iranian lawmakers stressed that the current calm does not constitute a ceasefire agreement, calling it "only a pause in attacks.”

During a meeting of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, spokesperson Ebrahim Rezai said, “We have not entered a truce. There is no peace. If the Zionist regime commits another act of aggression, we will respond with greater force.”

According to Rezaei, Iran received the request to halt fire indirectly from the United States through a third-party regional intermediary.

Rezai also said that Iran has the legal right under Article 10 of the NPT and Article 60 of the 1969 Vienna Convention to suspend cooperation with the IAEA due to “attacks on the peaceful nuclear infrastructure” by Israel and the US.

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Lawmakers accuse IAEA of espionage and bias

Parliament members criticized the IAEA and its Director General Rafael Grossi, accusing the agency of providing “false reports,” politically biased behavior, and facilitating espionage against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Rezai said there are plans to file formal complaints against IAEA officials for alleged misconduct and spying.

Lawmakers also called for international legal action against Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging war crimes proceedings and demands for reparations.

Ali Khezrian, a key proponent of the bill, accused the US, European powers, and the IAEA of exploiting Iran’s transparency to enable military targeting of its facilities.

“They have weaponized technical reports and paved the way for Israel's acts of sabotage,” he said.

Khezrian argued that Iran’s nuclear cooperation had consistently exceeded legal obligations, and accused Western powers of demanding Iran cease uranium enrichment entirely — a right enshrined under Article 4 of the NPT. “They attack our nuclear sites and then ask to inspect the damage. How can we trust such a system?” he said.

Iran has had a fractious relationship with the UN watchdog, barring a third of its inspectors two years ago, calling the organization politically motivated. In another move in 2022, Iran removed several of the agency's monitoring cameras.

Iran to accelerate nuclear program

Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in a fiery speech before the vote, praised the armed forces and warned the West not to underestimate Iran’s capabilities.

“We remain fully armed and ready to retaliate. Our peaceful nuclear program will now advance even faster,” he said.

Ghalibaf added that Iran’s missile responses had forced both the US and Israel to backtrack on their strategic goals while Israel says the country has achieved its objectives.

The speaker's remarks were met with chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” from lawmakers in the chamber.

Also on Wednesday, IAEA chief Grossi said the inspectors' return to Iranian nuclear facilities is the organization's number one priority.

"You can't establish democracy top down. It doesn't work," Yechiel Leiter said in a Washington DC town hall hosted by Iran International, when asked if Israel expected a regime change after its recent air strikes on Iran.

"We have created the backdrop. We've created the props on the stage, and hopefully they're enough for there to be capitalized upon and for change to be brought about," the Israeli ambassador told the town hall moderator Fardad Farahzad.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier told Iran International that the Israeli military campaign against Iran was giving its people a chance to topple the Islamic Republic, adding that the ruling system's days were numbered.

"A light has been lit—carry it to freedom,” Netanyahu said on June 16. “This is the time. Your hour of freedom is near—it’s happening now.”

Leiter said on Tuesday that Netanyahu spoke "with a tremendous passion and hope that the world will change and that the Iranian regime will change."

"That's a wish, but that can't be a military goal," he said. "Democracy is, in of itself, an expression of the people's will. So how can you ignore the people's will by forcing it?"

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'World must join Israel'

The Israeli ambassador criticized other countries especially the Europeans for leaving the Jewish State alone in countering the Islamic Republic, saying it would be much easier for Iranian people to topple the Islamic Republic should other countries help Israel.

"Why is it that the Chancellor of Germany says 'Israel is doing the dirty work for all of us'? We're a tiny little country. Where's Germany? Where's England? England has a huge stake, huge history in your neck of the woods," Leiter said.

"They can feel an affinity for somebody who threatens an ally, like Israel. And it's not just Israel. Who created the sleeper cells in Europe? Why is there fear now in the United States, of sleeper cells? They have interfered with international waterways, with globalization, with maritime trade," he added.

Iran sent a communiqué to Trump in the days before the US air strikes on its nuclear facilities threatening to activate sleeper-cell terror inside America if it were attacked, NBC News reported on Sunday citing sources.

Eleven Iranian nationals, including a suspected former army sniper and an individual with admitted ties to Hezbollah, were arrested by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) over the weekend in what officials say is a broader crackdown on individuals with ties to Iran and potential national security risks.

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The Israeli ambassador addressed the German chancellor and said, "You're absolutely right. We're doing the dirty work for the world, but it's about time that you helped us. And if they did, it would be a lot easier for the people of Iran."

"You have a minority government with its boot on the necks of, of good people, of innocent people, of tens of millions of people."

Surprises every day with Trump in office

The Israeli envoy said he was not surprised by Trump’s ceasefire proposal, as Israel’s military objectives in the war with Iran had been largely achieved by Tuesday morning when the ceasefire took effect.

He said working as a diplomat in Washington DC under President Trump feels like riding a roller coaster—with no idea when the next sharp turn is coming.

"You're on a roller coaster, and the only difference between Washington during the Trump administration and a roller coaster is that with the roller coaster, you know where the twists and turns are coming," he said.

"Here in Washington at the present time, you just don't know when the roller coaster is going to go sideways and you've got to hold on."

Trump on Monday night announced the unexpected ceasefire in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel via a post on his Truth Social platform, further fueling a sense of unpredictability surrounding US policy decisions.

The experts say Iran now faces a defining choice: abandon its decades-old doctrine of hostility toward Israel and the US, or double down and risk collapse.

“It's Ali Khamenei, whose worldview is arguably at the heart of why we ended up in this conflict,” said Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and founding director of its Iran Program.

Once seen as untouchable, the clerical state is now reeling—its authority at home weakened and its future uncertain, several Middle East analysts told Iran International.

“What pushback comes from within the regime?” Vatanka asked. “The policies of hardliners, of flexing muscle, having ballistic missiles, acts of resistance, fighting the good fight against US and Israel. That brought this disaster on Iran.”

Tehran failed to defend its airspace, protect officials and loyalists, or safeguard its nuclear and missile programs.

While Iran has long fomented regional instability, this is the first time in decades that war reached its own soil. That may prove a turning point.

“So the war against Israel and the United States, that was sold as something you do outside of Iran's borders. That war suddenly was happening on Iranian soil, literally in cities and towns where people live,” Vatanka said.

Change is coming

That internal tremor may not lead to collapse—but it could produce serious transformation.

“I do expect significant aftershock waves within the structure of the regime,” said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and founder of Inside the Middle East: Intelligence Perspectives.

“Change within the regime, not the regime change,” Melamed said. “But again, it may be that the change within the regime will result in dynamic, that will result in, at the end of the day, change of the regime.”

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is taking a victory lap. President Trump posted Tuesday on Truth Social that China can now resume buying oil from Iran—a sharp turn from his previous threats.

“China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran,” Trump wrote. “Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!”

Only a month after warning the world against buying Iranian oi, Trump told reporters he hopes Iran will be “a great trading nation.”

Experts say the fact that Iran and Israel accepted a ceasefire signal that neither side wanted a prolonged conflict.

Some level of political change now appears unavoidable, according to Kamran Matin, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex.

“The kinds of concessions that Iran will be compelled to make in the likely post-ceasefire talks over its nuclear and missile projects far exceeds the political ideological constraints of the current leadership of Khamenei,” Matin said.

“He has been forced to contradict himself on major matters of national security on a rather frequent basis since October 7.”

For now, observers are watching closely to see whether the Islamic Republic—feeling weakened—lashes out internally.

On Monday, Iranian authorities executed Mohammad-Amin Mahdavi-Shayesteh for allegedly spying for Israel.

“The regime might seek to alleviate its utter humiliation by dramatically intensifying its repression of dissidents and even repeat the 1988 mass execution of political prisoners,” Matin warned.

Such a move could spark widespread protests—potentially pushing an already fragile Islamic Republic toward collapse.

The airstrikes may have ended, but the real battle for Iran’s future is only beginning. Israeli strikes shook the Islamic Republic to its core. Its leadership is bruised, its power structure exposed, and its legitimacy at home deeply eroded.