US attacks on Iran: what we know so far

The unprecedented step reflects the seriousness with which the 86-year-old leader views the current threat environment, as Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military and nuclear assets.

Khamenei, who is now operating from a secure underground location and communicating through a trusted aide, has also named backups for key military positions in case more senior commanders are killed, the NYT cited the officials as saying.

“Ayatollah Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, also a cleric and close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who was rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the candidates,” the report said.

The identity of the three clerics has not been disclosed, but the move is seen as an effort to ensure a swift and orderly succession via the Assembly of Experts if the supreme leader is assassinated or dies unexpectedly.

As Iran International previously reported, Khamenei was relocated to an underground bunker in Lavizan, northeast Tehran, shortly after the airstrikes began. His close family, including Mojtaba, are also at the facility. The transfer followed internal assessments of vulnerability at top levels of Iran’s leadership.

In a separate report, Iran International learned that Khamenei has delegated key powers to the Supreme Council of the Revolutionary Guards in what officials described as a wartime precaution, allowing critical decisions to proceed should the Supreme Leader become incapacitated.

"There are a small number of unconfirmed reports of Americans being detained and imprisoned," the report said, citing the cable.

US diplomats are following up on these reports, the cable said, acknowledging that many Americans are in harm's way as Donald Trump considers military action against Iran.

Many of the US citizens who were leaving Iran faced delays and harassment, the Washington Post reported, citing the cable.

There is no definitive count of how many US citizens remain in Iran. The State Department has said it is not offering US government-assisted departures from Iran. Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said on Friday, “Americans seeking to depart should take advantage of existing means to leave.”

Detentions and diplomatic strain persist

Since the beginning of the Iran-Israel conflict on June 13, foreign nationals have been advised to leave Iran and avoid travelling to the country.

The Islamic Republic has a long history of detaining and convicting foreign nationals, using them as leverage in negotiations with world powers.

US permanent resident Shahab Dalili is among those known to be imprisoned in Iran.

Iran and the US broke diplomatic ties following the 1979 hostage crisis involving US diplomats in Tehran, which lasted 444 days.

US warns citizens to leave Iran as land borders remain limited

The US Virtual Embassy in Tehran urged American citizens to leave Iran immediately, citing continued airspace closures and security risks amid hostilities with Israel, according to a security alert issued on their website.

The alert said land borders with Armenia and Turkey are open, while crossings into Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan require prior government approval. The embassy warned it cannot guarantee the safety of those attempting to exit by land and noted internet disruptions and limited consular support.

US citizens were advised to prepare for emergencies and avoid relying on the US government for evacuation assistance.

"I really think this is going to end by a negotiation,” said Abrams, who served as US Special Representative for Iran from 2020 to 2021.

"They're going to lose this nuclear weapons program, and the question is whether they do it the hard way or the easy way."

Even if the Islamic Republic refuses to surrender, Abrams said more Israeli strikes—followed by a possible US attack targeting an underground nuclear facility—would eventually lead to negotiations, much the way talks settled the Iran–Iraq war.

Eliminating the underground Fordow site in central Iran would likely hinder Tehran’s ability to quickly rebuild its nuclear program but it may not necessarily prevent it from using suspected secret sites to produce nuclear weapons, a prominent nuclear expert said this week.

According to Richard Nephew, a former negotiator during the Obama administration, the United States and Israel must acknowledge that Fordow is not the only pathway for an Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Iran, he argued in a Washington Institute thinktank report, may have other centrifuges available, including at secret sites, and is “probably already at work.”

For his part, Abrams said Fordow is essential to Iran’s program and a necessary military objective, but not a total solution without a broader diplomatic or military campaign.

Abrams was a prominent advocate of preemptive military action against Iraq during George W. Bush’s presidency.

Weapons of mass destruction alleged to be held by Baghdad were never found and the invasion led to a civil war which killed several thousand US troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis.

Trump’s two-week window is ‘strategic’

"Khamenei will soon have that choice: preserve the regime—or risk its collapse under American attack," said Abrams.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to authorize a military strike on Iran.

Trump has previously given himself two-week deadlines on other major decisions—particularly related to the Russia–Ukraine war—and then failed to meet them.

Questions about how Trump will handle the conflict between Israel and Iran have swirled over the last week, and the president has yet to give a straight answer.

Based on Abrams' tenure as Trump’s Iran envoy, he sees this two-week window as a psychological negotiating tactic to throw his adversaries off balance.

It also provides the president with time to explore more options, he added, to see where negotiations may head, and to assess what Israel can accomplish on its own inside Iran.

If Israel is unable to destroy Iran’s fortified Fordow nuclear facility, Abrams believes Trump will likely order a US airstrike using bunker-buster bombs, without deploying troops. That window also allows the US to position its military assets and to give Iran a final chance to negotiate.

“He is moving planes and ships, particularly aircraft carriers and carrier task forces from far away into the Gulf area, the Eastern Mediterranean area, and it takes a week or 10 days,” Abrams told Eye for Iran. “So I don't read into this that he's decided not to do anything.”

“It's a way of giving yourself options until the very last minute.”

Trump’s inner circle

During his tenure as special representative on Iran, Abrams viewed influencing trusted inner-circle figures—like Pompeo during Trump’s first term—as the most effective way to shape Trump's decisions.

Trump’s decision-making is shaped by a small group of trusted advisors, not outside pressure or foreign leaders. Those around him—especially top generals and intelligence officials—play a key role in what happens next.

Currently, his trusted circle, according to Abrams, includes Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Generals Kane and Kurilla, and CIA Director Ratcliffe—all of whom remain deeply committed to preventing a nuclear Iran.

“I think he's paying a lot of attention to these two top generals—General Kane, who's the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Kurilla, who's the head of CENTCOM, both very experienced four-star generals,” Abrams said.

The generals do not make their opinions known, but from what Abrams gathers, they tend to have a more aggressive stance on Iran and its proxies.

As tensions escalate and the clock on Trump’s two-week window ticks down, all eyes are on Fordow—and on Tehran’s next moves.

President Donald Trump is weighing a US strike, while Israel says it will act alone within days if necessary. Here's a brief summary of events leading to Friday.

Underground site in crosshairs

• Trump is determined to disable Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility by force or diplomacy, CBS and Axios reported.
• Trump will decide within two weeks whether to order a strike, the White House said Thursday.
• Two Israeli security sources told Iran International that Israel will strike Fordow within 48–72 hours—with or without US support.
• The Guardian reports Trump is unconvinced the GBU-57 bomb can destroy Fordow; Pentagon warned only a tactical nuke would guarantee success—something Trump is not considering.
• CIA Director Ratcliffe reportedly described Iran as “on the one-yard line” of building a bomb.
• NYT says Iran may seek a nuclear weapon if Fordow is hit or Khamenei is killed.

Israeli strikes continue

• Israel targeted an industrial complex in Rasht and other targets in Gorgan
• Satellite images confirmed heavy damage to Arak’s reactor dome.
• Israeli officials’ remarks fueled the speculations that Israeli was poised to kill Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei
• Netanyahu said regime change in Iran is up to its people, but could result from the war.
• A building housing top officials was targeted in northern Tehran.

Iran vows to retaliate, launches more missiles

• Khamenei appeared in a defiant video rejecting Trump’s calls to surrender, saying any US attack would cause “irreparable damage.”
• Tehran warned of retaliation on US soil if Washington intervenes, but left door open to diplomacy
• Iran reiterated it may pursue nuclear weapons if Khamenei is assassinated or Fordow is hit.
• New salvos Thursday hit a major hospital in southern Israel
• IRGC media reported attempts to mobilize Qom clerics for compromise with Israel.

Tehran shaken, losses mount

• Rights groups say more than 300 have been killed in Iran, including nuclear scientists and IRGC members.
• Strikes have hit almost every Tehran district, prompting mass flight.
• Air defenses activated again Thursday night amid new Israeli strikes.
• Targets included the Intelligence and Foreign ministries and key military sites.
• Funerals and martyr posters are now common across the capital.

US prepares, denies offensive role

• The USS Ford strike group and over 30 refueling tankers are in the region.
• Satellite images show US military aircraft being removed from a base in Qatar.
• Trump’s G7 exit and social media posts stirred speculation about imminent US action.

Diplomacy intensifies but stalls

• US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi have held multiple phone calls.
• UK foreign minister to deliver US message to Iran in Geneva Friday; France and Germany joining.
• UN chief Guterres welcomed the talks but said violence must end now.
• Iran told Guterres it will keep fighting until the UN acts against Israel.
• Hezbollah’s deputy chief said the group is “not neutral” and backs Iran.

Global fallout escalates

• Russia evacuated nationals; Czechia closed its Tehran embassy.
• Germany urged Israel to show restraint in military operations.
• Oil prices spiked; Iran faces the worst internet blackout since 2019.
• Iran threatened Israeli Channel 14 with military action.
• Iran arrested over 160 people for alleged online support of Israel.
• Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi called for a ceasefire and international peace push.

The two sources still viewed joint action alongside the United States as the most likely scenario, within 48-72 hours at most.

An attack could be underway as early Friday night, the sources added, but Israel is also weighing going it alone to avoid losing the military advantage it has gained this week.

“In order for us to force Iran into concessions it would otherwise not make, and to bring it back to the negotiating table, this is the only way; we need the US to take action," an Israeli intelligence source told Iran International on condition of anonymity.

"We need Trump to do this within the next two to three days," one source added. "Trump is extremely unpredictable right now though, so anything could happen.”

Buried deep underground, the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility has remained untouched so far in the ongoing Israeli military campaign which appeared to take Iran by surprise in the early hours of last Friday morning.

Window closing

The window of opportunity to knock out the site was closing, the second Israeli security source said, and Israel had been planning for an attack for months.

“Until now the IDF (Israeli military) has opened up the flight path to Iran and the skies are open but that will be for a limited time, it can’t go on indefinitely,” he told Iran International on condition of anonymity.

“Therefore, if America decides to get involved, it has to be a decision made as fast as possible otherwise the opportunity will be missed.”

As the war begins to impact the global economy, including the soaring price of oil, the source said world powers could quickly lose patience with the conflict.

“There are economic issues at stake, so for example if oil prices spike, then these countries could be involved due to their own economic interests. So in general, America has to take this opportunity within 48-72 hours.”

The reach and strength of Israel's bombers are more limited compared to their American peers, making an attack on Fordow by Israeli forces alone more complex.

“Israel doesn’t have the heavy B-52 capabilities to drop a 14-ton bomb to penetrate the heart of the Iranian atomic sites that have to be destroyed,” the security source said.

Israel’s F-15s travel nearly 2,000 kilometers with far smaller payloads of around 400 kilograms, the source added. "Do the math. America could do that mission within a few days, but for us, it would be a much longer, more complex operation."

Destroying the Fordow enrichment facility requires a US military asset never been used in war, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.

Known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the GBU-57 is designed to tear through 200 feet of mountain rock before exploding. The United States has around 20, the newspaper reported, delivered via B-2 stealth bombers.

In the White House on Wednesday, Trump maintained studied ambiguity. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he told reporters.

Iain Overton, the Executive Director of Action on Armed Violence, told Iran International that despite the heavy blows taken, Tehran could opt to fight on.

“Iran may lack parity in conventional military terms, but it possesses a distributed deterrent capability: armed proxies across the region, cyber warfare expertise, and a long-honed ideological machinery that frames death not as loss but as victory," he said.

"If the Ayatollah’s regime interprets US involvement as existential, it will not capitulate. It will escalate.”