Netanyahu blames Iran for Houthi attacks, vows to inflict heavy price

President Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on May 13 on the first leg of a four-day, three-country trip to the Middle East that included stops in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The choice of Saudi Arabia for the first state visit of Trump’s second term mirrored that of his first, except this time he did not go to Israel, signaling that the administration is doubling down on its Arabian peninsula partners as key supporters of US regional interests.

Iran was naturally not on the itinerary but ever-present in Trump’s public statements, with the president using a characteristic blend of carrot-and-stick which urged Iranian leaders to take a “new and better path” and warned of “massive maximum pressure” if Tehran “rejects this olive branch.”

Trump expressed his desire to reach a deal with Iran on many occasions, even hinting that a deal was almost agreed. For that to happen, however, Tehran "must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars, and permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons,” he added.

Later, aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters that Iran had to “make the right decision” about its nuclear program because “something’s going to happen one way or the other” and "we’ll either do it friendly or we’ll do it very unfriendly.”

Arab, Iranian audiences

There are various takeaways for leaders in Iran as well as in its neighboring Arab countries, from Trump’s commentary.

For the latter, Trump’s demand that Iran end its sponsorship of terror and involvement in proxy wars will be welcomed as a signal that any agreement with Tehran might not be narrowly confined to its nuclear program alone, as was the case with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015.

For leaders in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi - not to mention in Tel Aviv -it was Iran’s regional activities that were as much a priority as its nuclear program, and their exclusion from the negotiations for the 2015 nuclear deal caused alarm in the region.

However, any such optimism in regional corridors of power may be tempered by concern that the president’s unconventional approach to deal-making may create openings for an agreement that gives Trump the optics he desires at the expense of nuts-and-bolts details on specific Iranian commitments.

Deals, details and differences

Comments by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s chief negotiator and one of his closest confidants, in podcast and other appearances, have not given the impression of a details-focused approach to diplomacy, whether in terms of Russia and Ukraine or Iran.

Witkoff and other members of the Trump administration have also sent mixed messages about whether Iran would be able to enrich uranium in any agreement, reinforcing concerns by domestic and regional critics of US engagement with Iran that a new deal may be worse than no deal.

For the leadership in Tehran, beset by economic challenges, energy shortages and geopolitical setbacks that left its regional "Axis of Resistance" weakened, the optics of Trump’s regional procession offer glimpses of opportunity.

The fact that Trump met with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Riyadh and declared that sanctions on Syria would be lifted was further illustration that Trump is transactional rather than ideological, and willing to take decisions that break the mold of conventional American policy thinking.

This was underscored in Trump’s remarks in Riyadh on May 13 when he slammed the failures of generations of western interventionists and neocons in the Middle East who “told you how to do it, but they had no idea how to do it themselves” and, he argued, did far more damage than good.

In making these comments and receiving al-Sharaa, Trump has shown himself willing to break free of traditional constraints on US policymaking in the region, at least on the surface, and this may yet extend to Iran.

Unclear outlook

There are nevertheless multiple uncertainties for Iranian officials as they begin to digest the outcomes of Trump’s visit to the Middle East and assess the implications, both short- and long-term, for Tehran.

The plethora of major deals signed in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have cemented these countries’ deep and longstanding ties with the US across the defense and security, economic, and energy spectrum.

Any concerns in the region of US disengagement from the Middle East may be dissipated by the sight of Trump bestowing such significance on the region, in stark contrast to the disdain with which the administration has treated its formal allies in Europe and North America.

And yet, if Trump is to reap the benefits of the hundreds of billions of dollars of planned investments into the US, he will likely return from his trip with a conviction that the pledges, and the returns, require stability and would be jeopardized by any conflict with Iran.

This not only plays into the de-risking and de-escalatory approach that Iran's energy-rich Arab neighbors have taken since 2020 but may also fortify Trump’s desire to burnish his credentials as a peacemaker in the explosive region.

After 30 days of a ramped-up campaign against the Islamist militia amid its blockade of commercial shipping in the Red Sea region, US strikes had used around $1 billion of weapons and munitions.

In addition, two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.

On day 31 of the operation to quash the blockade in the key maritime trade route, Trump is reported to have requested a report, in which the numbers began to reflect an ever costly operation against the group only becoming more adamant in its own mission.

The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier, with the US failing to gain even air superiority over the group the US has listed as a terrorist organization.

“In those first 30 days, the Houthis shot down seven American MQ-9 drones (around $30 million each), hampering Central Command’s ability to track and strike the militant group,” the NYT reported.

“Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties,” the NYT said, according to multiple US officials.

When two pilots and a flight deck crew member were injured in the two episodes involving the F/A-18 Super Hornets, which fell into the Red Sea from the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman within 10 days of each other, that fear became a reality.

The Pentagon reported that American strikes had hit multiple command and control facilities, air defense systems, advanced weapons manufacturing facilities and advanced weapons storage locations.

More than a dozen senior Houthi leaders had been killed, according to the US military, but the cost was mounting with the deployment of two aircraft carriers, additional B-2 bombers and fighter jets, as well as Patriot and THAAD air defenses, to the Middle East, officials told the NYT.

A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, said in a statement to The New York Times that the US military had carried out more than 1,100 strikes, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and destroying their weapons and equipment.

The chief Pentagon spokesman, Sean Parnell, said the operation was always meant to be limited. “Every aspect of the campaign was coordinated at the highest levels of civilian and military leadership,” he said in an emailed statement to the NYT.

Under former President Joe Biden, the US was leading a more than 20-nation coalition against the Houthi blockade, which had seen targeted strikes on the group’s infrastructure, but in a bid to free up global shipping, Trump cracked down on the Iran-backed group, before the costs began to raise eyebrows.

But now, while the Houthis have paused attacks on commercial shipping since the Oman-mediated ceasefire with the US, the group has continued targeting Israel, with one ballistic missile missing the country’s main airport by just meters earlier this month.

Ben-Gurion Airport in central Israel remains a target from the group, which has issued multiple statements warning it is no longer safe.

The Houthis say the attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza and they will not stop until a full ceasefire in Gaza.

Since the US agreed to the ceasefire, Israel has begun to step up its own operations against the Houthis independently of the US agreement.

The Pentagon deployed as many as six B-2 bombers in March to a US-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, amid a US bombing campaign in Yemen and mounting tensions with Iran.

Experts say that this had put the B-2s, which have stealth technology and are equipped to carry the heaviest US bombs and nuclear weapons, in a position to operate in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump announced last week that a deal had been reached to stop bombing Yemen's Houthi group.

The B-2 bombers had been used to carry out strikes against the Iran-backed group.

According to regional sources cited by Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, the Lebanese armed group, closely aligned with Tehran, is monitoring ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States in Oman.

Hezbollah apparently fears that any Israeli strike targeting IRGC personnel could derail the talks and put Iran in a difficult diplomatic position, according to the report.

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to use every possible means to pressure Tehran and obstruct its nuclear progress,” the sources said, suggesting that any high-profile Iranian casualty in Lebanon could serve as a pretext for escalation.

IRGC officers are believed to reside in discreet locations in Beirut’s southern suburbs and in the Bekaa Valley, and typically move under strict security protocols.

Israeli intelligence has previously succeeded in targeting IRGC-linked figures and Hezbollah commanders during recent conflicts in Lebanon.

Neither Hezbollah nor Iranian officials have publicly confirmed the reported withdrawal request.

Last year, seven senior IRGC commanders and officials were killed in an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, triggering Iran's first ever direct airstrike on the Jewish state.

Israel's Y-Net reported that it had been intercepted before reaching Israeli territory, the latest in an ongoing air operation from the Houthis in Yemen.

On Sunday, Israel attacked Hodeidah in Yemen after the Israeli army said it had warned residents of three ports under Houthi control to evacuate, according to the Houthi interior ministry.

Last week, the Houthis, listed as a terrorist organization by countries including the US, fired a ballistic missile which narrowly missed Israel’s main airport after multiple interception attempts failed.

The Houthis announced a ban on “air navigation to the airports of occupied Palestine” following the strike which landed just meters from Ben-Gurion Airport in central Israel.

Since the Gaza war began, dozens of strikes have been launched by Yemen, with scores of drones and missiles fired at the Jewish state.

Following the maritime blockade of the Red Sea region enacted by the Houthis, in a bid to force Israel into a ceasefire with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the US had led a more than 20-nation coalition against the group.

In a shock move last week, US President Donald Trump agreed to an Oman-brokered ceasefire after having escalated attacks on the Houthis in March.

The Houthis had launched at least 174 attacks on the US Navy and 145 attacks on global shipping, according to the US State Department.

However, the deal did not encompass the group's attacks on Israel.

In Israel, the ceasefire has left members of the political and military elite on edge.

"This was totally unexpected," one security source told Iran International on condition of anonymity. "Everyone is very much watching and waiting to see what comes next, but it leaves us in a much weaker position."

Another said: "We have no choice but to take tougher action now to show that even standing alone, we will not allow the Houthis to threaten the safety of Israel."