Several powerful Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are prepared to disarm for the first time to avert the threat of escalating conflict with the US, according to senior commanders and Iraqi officials speaking to Reuters.
The move to defuse tensions follows repeated private warnings from US officials to the Iraqi government since January, sources including six militia commanders said.
Washington has told Baghdad it could target the groups with airstrikes unless it acted to disband the militias operating on its soil.
A senior Shi'ite politician close to Iraq's governing alliance, Izzat al-Shahbndar, said discussions between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and militia leaders were very advanced, with the groups inclined to comply with US calls for disarmament, acknowledging the risk of being targeted.
"The factions are not acting stubbornly or insisting on continuing in their current form," he said.
The militia commanders, from groups including Kataib Hezbollah and Nujabaa, said their main ally, Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), had given them its blessing to make necessary decisions to avoid a conflict with the US and Israel.
"Trump is ready to take the war with us to worse levels, we know that, and we want to avoid such a bad scenario," said a commander of Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful Shi'ite militia.
Later on Monday, Iraqi politician Muthal al-Alusi denied the Reuters report, calling the claims a nominal effort to protect involved politicians. He told Iran International that "in practice, the real militias have received advanced weapons, and their participation on the battlefield may be completely evident."
These militias form a key part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group claiming responsibility for numerous attacks on Israel and US forces since the Gaza war.
Prime Minister Sudani's advisor said he was committed to bringing all weapons under state control through dialogue.
Security officials said some groups had already evacuated headquarters in fear of air strikes.
While a US official expressed skepticism about the long-term nature of any disarmament, the discussions mark a potential shift amid a weakened "Axis of Resistance" for Iran.
Options for the militias' future include becoming political parties or integrating into the Iraqi army, though no deal is finalized.
The shift comes as Iraq balances its alliances with both the US and Iran, with the militias having grown significantly since the 2003 US invasion. The US had warned Iraq against revenge attacks by these groups after recent strikes on the Houthis.
The US military has in recent days deployed long-range bombers at a strategic Indian Ocean airbase amid escalation of tensions with Tehran, a move which presaged major bombing campaigns against Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.
In an exclusive interview with Iran International, former CENTCOM commander and CIA chief David Petraeus described the deployment as a step toward preparing for military action against Iran if it failed to reach a deal with the Trump administration over its disputed nuclear program.
"They are also steps to show that we are very serious and that you should not do this, and therefore trying to deter Iran from doing what would be unacceptable and would force the United States to take action," he said.
Petraeus said, "There's great concern about how close Iran is to the possibility of having a nuclear weapon. They're literally just one turn of the enrichment process from having weapons-grade uranium. That is something that President Trump has said he will never allow the Iranians to have a nuclear weapon."
Trump has warned Iran would be bombed if it did not agree to a new nuclear deal, prompting Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to say on Monday that the Islamic Republic would deal a "strong blow" in retaliation for any attack.
Iran's retaliation
Iran has threatened to target American interests in the region, including its strategic Diego Garcia naval base in the Indian Ocean if it is attacked by the US.
However, Petraeus says Trump would not stop at a limited attack on the nuclear sites and would go after the Islamic Republic's air defense and missile capabilities.
"You probably have to take out some of the retaliatory capacity of Iran as well because you don't want to just take out the nuclear program and then have them go after the bases where we have forces, and that would then bring in all these other countries, of course," he said.
"This is not just a surgical attack on discrete nuclear capabilities. This is against the retaliatory capabilities, against the defense capability, and that's what has to be done if you're going to carry out this operation."
Plan to destroy Iran's nuclear program
Petraeus said he actually developed the plan to destroy Iran's nuclear program over 15 years ago when he was the commander of the US Central Command.
"It's publicly known that we actually rehearsed that plan one time inside the United States, with all the planes flying all the distances that they would have to fly, the refuelers, all the command and control, the jammers that drop, the munitions that we would drop, and so forth. And it all worked."
"We were prepared one time actually, to set the theater, in other words, to identify all the locations from which the planes would fly, where they would be based. The munitions were in place, the food, fuel, water, etc. All was set. We thought there was a likelihood of this. We told the White House we probably should get more prepared than we were."
'Israel proved it's possible'
Petraeus said Iran currently "does have more effective, more elaborate air and ballistic missile defenses" than in the past. However, he said, "Israel penetrated them twice, showing that that can be done."
Last October, Israeli air strikes against Iran's military sites knocked out the country's last three Russian-provided S-300 air defense missile systems, leaving the country "naked", Fox News reported citing US and Israeli officials.
The surface-to-air S-300s were the last in the Islamic Republic's arsenal after one was destroyed in an attack in April 2024 also likely carried out by Israel, Fox News quoted a senior US official as saying.
Still, Petraeus says Iran has "more retaliatory capability in terms of missiles and so forth, even though Israel dramatically reduced the ability of Iran to make solid fuel rocket engines from several per day to one or two per week."
Bunker busters
The former CENTCOM commander said the US military has bombs like the 30,000-pound GBU-57, aka Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), that "is very accurate and can penetrate very hardened targets".
"It would be used against the most deeply buried hardened targets... you can imagine which target that might be," he said, adding that the use of such bunker busters is "not just possible but would be necessary" in a potential strike against Iran.
Iran’s most secretive nuclear facility, known as Fordow, has been carved deep into a mountain in central Iran, and is reportedly some 90 meters (295 feet) deep. It is also protected by several feet of reinforced concrete.
In 2012, defense experts contacted by Reuters believed the chances of a US strike against Fordow succeeding are slim. However, Petraeus says, "they can do enormous damage and destruction".