US says Iran will face consequences after dissident plot verdict

“I’m not at liberty to talk about the specifics,” Witkoff said in an interview released Friday on The Tucker Carlson Show. “But clearly through a, you know, back channels, through multiple countries and multiple conduits, they've reached back out.”

According to Axios, Trump’s letter to Ali Khamenei, delivered via a senior Emirati diplomat, included a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear agreement and warned of consequences if Iran expanded its nuclear program. The letter was described by sources as “tough” in tone.

However, Witkoff presented the message differently during his interview. “It roughly said, I'm a president of peace. That's what I want. There's no reason for us to do this militarily,” he said. “We should talk. We should clear up the misconceptions. We should create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your nuclear material.”

He also said Trump believes the issue “has a real possibility of being solved diplomatically” and “acknowledged that he's open to an opportunity to clean it all up with Iran.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently affirmed that indirect talks through countries like Oman are “not a strange method,” and on Friday he held a phone call with his Emirati counterpart. No details were released about the conversation.

Witkoff added that Trump wants to build trust with Iran and would prefer to avoid war. “He’s a president who doesn’t want to go to war,” he said. “He’ll use military action to stop a war.”

Carlson, a longtime ally of Trump, warned earlier in the week that a military strike on Iran “would certainly result” in a broader conflict and “thousands of American deaths.” Iranian media highlighted both his remarks and Witkoff’s interview, portraying them as possible signs of a shifting tone in Washington.

Still, Iran’s official stance remains defiant. Khamenei has rejected direct talks under pressure and, in a speech on Friday, focused instead on deterrence. “Anyone who commits villainy against the Iranian people will be struck with a harsh slap,” he said.

At the US State Department, spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Friday that Washington remains committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and continues to rely on pressure. “Iran’s behavior, as we know, across the globe threatens US national interests,” she said, adding that the administration’s campaign of sanctions and diplomatic isolation has been very effective.

That’s according to Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a well-known voice on Iran policy in Washington D.C. He's a staunch critic of the Islamic Republic who has been sanctioned by Tehran in 2019.

"I think the Supreme Leader faces probably the most fateful decision of his 35 years as supreme leader," Dubowitz told Eye for Iran, "Is he (Ali Khamanei) going to do a peaceful nuclear deal or is he going to have the United States and Israel take down his program and potentially take down his regime."

The preservation of the Islamic Republic is at stake, and this year could either result in the downfall of more than 40 years of Islamic rule over Iran or it may actually help keep it in power, described Dubowitz on the podcast.

"I think 2025 is going to be an interesting year, " said Dubowitz, "It could go the other way."

"It could be a nuclear deal that actually ends up being a bad deal for the United States, for Israel and for the region. There's a risk that President Trump does a bad deal, calls it the greatest deal ever negotiated."

Military action, what could it look like?

President Donald Trump has publicly said that he prefers diplomacy over war with Iran, and during the election campaign he vowed "to end wars."

As part of a diplomatic push, Trump sent a letter to Khamenei offering to negotiate on the nuclear issue, giving Iran a two-month deadline to reach a deal or face severe consequences, according to Axios.

That is one way the United States is preparing for all scenarios, laying the groundwork for anything from talking to military action.

"The Trump administration fully understands that 2025 is a critical year and President Trump will not let the Iranian regime get nuclear weapons," said Dubowitz.

What remains unknown is how Iran will respond especially given how weak the country is domestically with growing dissent, a free falling currency and the loss of regional influence with the degradation of its allies in Lebanon and Syria.

"There's a lot of rhetoric, overblown rhetoric," said Dubowitz, "Their capabilities don't match their threats.

The Israeli's have made it clear they are eager to engage in military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Dubowitz believes the Unted States would support such action to a certain degree, whether in a joint military action or by supporting Israel in its efforts.

It also remains to be seen just how much influence Israel can have on the United States and if the Americans can flip Russia against Iran through a ceasefire in Ukraine favouring Moscow's interests.

High level Israeli delegates will be meeting with US officials in the White House next week to discuss Iran. That is part of Trump's calculus on creating leverage against the Islamic Republic, said Dubowitz.

But a potential war would not look like American-led coalitions in Afghanistan and Iraq, he added, but could include precise targets against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ports and bases - including spy ships supporting the Houthis.

"We're going to create deterrence by punishment, " Dubowitz told Eye for Iran.

President Trump has made his position clear: “Iran must stop the sending of these Supplies IMMEDIATELY,” he wrote on X. Trump told Iran the country would be held responsible for any attacks by the Yemenis militant group.

US-led strikes have targeted the militant group’s training sites, command centers and weapons facilities since last week. The Houthis claimed attacks targeting American warships in the Red Sea area, as well as a missile launch against Israel.

Iran has tried to distance itself from the Houthis to evade responsibility.

Although Iranian leaders like IRGC Chief Commander Hossein Salami have issued dire warnings of "tough, decisive, and devastating" retaliation, Dubowitz believes Tehran's capabilities fall short of its threats. However, the regime retains the ability to sow chaos globally through agents and sleeper cells.

A missed opportunity for Iranians

The central focus of Trump's Iran policy is to cut off all pathways to Iran getting a nuclear bomb.

While Dubowitz praised the current administration's Iran policy thus far, he said Washington has failed to provide maximum support to the Iranian people.

The mere existence of the clerical establishment means a deal, no matter how many safeguards are in place, would not work in the long term, according to Dubowitz.

The best way to prevent a nuclear bomb in Iran and to prevent aggression in the Middle East and West is for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, said Dubowitz.

The best way to achieve that, in his view, is to support the people of Iran.

"I do believe this regime is going down, but we need to actually be serious about this and we need a policy of supporting the Iranian people to help bring it down."

He emphasized the need for practical support mechanisms, including establishing labor strike funds, bypassing internet shutdowns, and launching cyber operations to blind the government's security apparatus during uprisings.

"Shame on us if we're not ready to support the Iranian people the next time they're on the streets," said Dubowtiz.

The decisions made in 2025 will not only define Iran’s future but will also reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and beyond.

Whether Iran embraces diplomacy or conflict, the reverberations will be felt across the globe. The stakes can hardly be higher.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with the FDD's Mark Dubowitz on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform like Spotify, Castbox, Apple or Amazon.

The song was co-written and produced by the Swedish-Iranian producer, known professionally as ILYA, the Official Charts music tracker reported.

The outlet noted that ILYA’s Iranian heritage influenced the track’s title and musical direction. ILYA was previously nominated for a Grammy Award in 2020 for Best Song Written for Visual Media for co-writing “Spirit” from The Lion King, performed by Beyoncé.

"Album done. Single soon. I’m very excited as you can tell," Sheeran wrote in an Instagram post, which featured a video of him in the studio with producer ILYA, listening to a mix of the unreleased track.

The track, which has not yet been officially released, is expected to debut in April as part of Sheeran’s forthcoming album, Play, according to Official Charts.

British-Iranian comedian Omid Djalili also appears in the music video for Azizam, which was filmed in South London and features a wedding scene.

“Wait for the video when @edsheeran gets sucked into our vortex featuring a certain overweight bald gentleman you might know #happynowruz,” Djalili wrote on X on Thursday, the day of Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

Sheeran gave fans a live preview of the track during a surprise performance in New Orleans on March 15, where he was joined by The Soul Rebels brass band, People magazine reported.

The song is reportedly a tribute to Sheeran’s wife, Cherry Seaborn, with whom he shares two daughters.

The announcement has drawn praise from several Iranian public figures.

Iranian pop star Andy commented under Sheeran’s Instagram post: "Congratulations my friend. It’s a great song and the video will be great too."

Actress and comedian Nazanin Nour called the news "Incredible," while actress and activist Nazanin Bonyadi linked it to Iranian New Year on March 20th. "In time for Noroo," she wrote on X.

Iranian social media users also responded positively, with many celebrating the use of a Persian title and welcoming the inclusion of artists from the Iranian diaspora.

"China is always opposed to the abuse of illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said. "The US should stop interfering in and undermining normal trade cooperation between China and Iran."

Her statement came a day after the US State Department announced sanctions against a crude oil and petroleum products storage terminal in the port of Huizhou, China, for receiving and storing Iranian-origin crude oil from a blocked tanker.

According to the US State Department, the terminal, offloaded approximately one million barrels of Iranian crude in late January 2025 from the US-designated tanker formerly known as Spirit of Casper and Nichola.

The State Department said Chinese terminals play a critical role in facilitating Iran’s energy exports and sustaining its revenue streams.

Washington has been ramping up sanctions on Iran's oil exports, as part of US President Donald Trump renewed "maximum pressure" campaign, aimed at cutting Iran’s oil exports to zero in a bid to force Tehran into talks over its nuclear program.

The latest measure on Thursday appears to have pushed China over the edge to censure publicly the Trump administration's targeting of Chinese entities.

"China will take all necessary measure to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies," Mao warned in her statement.

Beijing hosted senior Iranian and Russian officials last week in a show of growing alliance between the three countries as the stand-off over Iran's nuclear program inches toward military confrontation.

"Now the situation has reached a critical juncture again," Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said. "We must buy time for peace, resolve disputes through political and diplomatic means, and oppose the use of force and illegal sanctions."

Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that the Islamic Republic had agreed with China and Russia that any future talks over Iran's nuclear program must not stray into other issues.

"We made our position clear and China and Russia take the same position and have always maintained that non-nuclear issues won’t be part of the nuclear talks," Gharibabadi said. "This is the position of all three countries."

The three countries in an earlier joint statement emphasized the need to address the root causes of the nuclear standoff. They condemned unilateral sanctions as illegal and underscored Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Meanwhile, the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the revival of the US administration’s maximum pressure policy have further tightened the noose on Iran’s economy.

While the Central Bank reported a year-on-year inflation rate of 45% last month, local media suggest that actual price increases are far higher. In reality, the cost of food, medicine, and other essential goods has nearly doubled.

Moreover, the fiscal year is ended with the US dollar surging to nearly 1 million Iranian rials, marking a 65% increase since the beginning of the past fiscal year. The depreciation of the rial has accelerated sharply in recent days.

At the same time, Central Bank data reveals that Iran’s foreign reserves have been rapidly depleting, plunging to just one-fourth of their level in March 2024 and a mere tenth of their March 2023 levels.

Iran’s foreign trade situation:

The latest figures from the Central Bank show that Iran's foreign exchange revenue crisis persisted in the first half of the current fiscal year, which began on March 20, 2024. No data has yet been released for the second half of the year.

During this period, Iran recorded a positive overall trade balance of $11.5 billion, including oil, goods, and services. However, the country also experienced capital flight totaling $12.5 billion.

As a result, the net balance of foreign currency inflows and outflows—including gold bullion—turned negative.

Given the sharp decline in Iran’s oil exports to China since September, the situation is expected to worsen—particularly as oil, petroleum products, and natural gas account for more than half of the country’s total exports.

Over the first 11 months, Iran has imported approximately 93 tons of gold bullion worth $7.3 billion in exchange for its oil and goods exports—three times the amount imported in the previous year. More than 55% of this gold was purchased from Turkey.

Indeed, around 13% of Iran’s total oil and non-oil exports have been bartered for gold instead of foreign currency. This highlights the government’s inability to collect payments for exported goods and oil and transfer foreign currency into the country, due to US banking sanctions. As a result, Iran is facing a severe shortage of foreign exchange reserves.

Government debt crisis

Recent data from the Central Bank shows that the Iranian government’s debt to the banking system has surged by 41% during the current fiscal year. To cover its widening budget deficit, the government has relied heavily on borrowing from domestic banks, tapping into the National Development Fund, and issuing bonds.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran’s total government debt now exceeds $120 billion—roughly one-third of the country’s economy. In contrast, Iran’s total external debt, including both governmental and non-governmental liabilities, stands at less than $10 billion—just 2% of GDP—underscoring the country’s extreme financial isolation and the reluctance of international institutions to fund Iranian projects.

Two decades ago, before the imposition of heavy sanctions, Iran’s external debt was more than 12% of GDP, largely driven by foreign investment in oil and gas projects. Today, the government’s increasing dependence on domestic borrowing has sharply boosted liquidity, further fueling inflation. Over the past year alone, liquidity in Iran has risen by 28%.

The economic crisis has pushed more Iranians into poverty. Official reports suggest that one-third of the population lives in extreme poverty. However, based on the World Bank’s global poverty standards, around 80% of Iranian households earn less than $600 per month and fall below the poverty line.

Energy and Water Crisis

For the first time, Iran has experienced electricity and gas shortages across all seasons. During peak summer demand in 2024, electricity shortages reached 20%, while winter gas shortfalls surged to 25%. Officials warn that energy shortages could worsen by at least 5% in the next fiscal year.

Industrial reports show that since summer 2024, energy disruptions have forced 30–40% of Iran’s industrial capacity to shut down. At the same time, the country has been grappling with growing gasoline and diesel shortages since 2023. Without new refinery projects, these fuel deficits are expected to escalate rapidly.

Meanwhile, Iran’s water crisis has reached a critical stage. Tehran’s main reservoirs are reportedly at just 7% capacity, and officials warn of severe water shortages by summer 2025.