Iran’s electricity supply is expected to fall drastically short in 2025-2026, with the country unable to generate even a third of the additional power needed to meet demand, a senior industry official has warned.
The projected shortfall has fueled concerns over worsening blackouts and mounting pressure on the government to address the crisis.
Ali Nikbakht, chairman of Iran’s power plant association, estimated a 25,000-megawatt electricity deficit next year, which begins on March 21—roughly one-third of the country’s total consumption.
“We need to expand capacity by 6,000 megawatts annually, but next year we won’t even reach a third of that,” he said, adding that this year’s 20,000-megawatt shortage will persist. Several power plants, he noted, may be unable to operate during the summer due to financial constraints.
His remarks stand in contrast to Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi, who insisted last month that Iran remains a major player in the global power industry.
“The Islamic Republic has secured a leading position in electricity production and equipment exports,” he said, adding that government planning would prevent major disruptions next summer.
However, power shortages have already led to unplanned, widespread shutdowns in recent months in the likes of schools and government buildings in massive swathes of the country.
Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said last month, “Shutting down offices isn’t a solution, but a necessity. We had to choose between keeping offices open or preventing people from freezing.”
In parliament, lawmakers have voiced frustration over the outages. Jalil Mir-Mohammadi, an MP from Taft, said, “Continuous blackouts are damaging household appliances, while cuts to irrigation wells are devastating farmers.”
Rahmatollah Norouzi, another lawmaker, urged the energy minister to address the crisis in parliament.
The issue has drawn international attention. On February 19, US President Donald Trump reshared a post by journalist Ashley Rindsberg on Truth Social, citing a New York Times report on Iran’s blackouts. “This is how regimes fall,” the post read.
With summer approaching, Iran faces mounting challenges in managing an energy crisis that threatens homes, businesses, and political stability.
