US bill urges EU to list Iran's Revolutionary Guards as terrorist group

Despite government statistics indicating a food inflation rate of 26.6% and an overall inflation rate of 32%, supermarket prices have risen far beyond these numbers, leaving many Iranians struggling to afford basic goods.

Supermarket prices have surged beyond what official reports indicate, leaving many citizens once considered middle class struggling to maintain their previous standard of living.

“We have stopped buying many things we used to consider normal, like nuts or even good quality rice,” said Mansour, 52, a resident of Tehran, who used to work in the banking sector but now finds his salary insufficient. “My children don’t understand why we’ve cut back so much.”

The economic crisis, which was once felt primarily by low-income families, has now engulfed middle-class households as well.

The Iranian rial has depreciated by more than 50% since September, falling to approximately 940,000 rials per US dollar. The collapse, combined with persistently high inflation—averaging around 40% annually over the past five years—has left many struggling to afford basic needs.

Official numbers versus market reality

Iran’s Ministry of Labor bases annual salary increases on official inflation figures, but market prices have consistently outpaced these statistics. A recent analysis by Iran International found that 15 key household items had increased in price by an average of 12% in just one month.

After cooking oil prices soared in December and potatoes became significantly more expensive in January, February has seen a sharp rise in the cost of legumes—some doubling in price within two weeks.

A survey of grocery prices in major cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, and Tabriz, found that household consumption costs had risen between 22% and 360% in the past week, with an average increase of 150%.

A 500-gram pack of tea, which cost 2 million rials ($2.13) last year, is now 4.6 million rials ($4.89).

Dairy products have also seen sharp increases. While official statistics report a 24% year-on-year inflation rate, market prices suggest much higher hikes.

A bucket of yogurt, which was 500,000 rials ($0.53) last year, now costs 760,000 rials ($0.81)—a 52% increase.

A 24-pack of toilet paper, once priced at 1.78 million rials ($1.89), now costs 3.93 million rials ($4.18), marking a 121% surge.

Families' statements about the price of various types of powdered milk also show that in February this year, the price of this essential product for infants has increased by 150 to 200 percent compared to the same time last year.

Rent and housing costs keep soaring

Inflation has also made housing less affordable. The Statistical Center of Iran reported a 37.6% increase in rent prices last month, but a nationwide survey by Iran International suggests that rents have risen by an average of nearly 78% over the past year. Many tenants have been forced to downsize or move to less expensive areas.

A resident of Tehran’s Yousef Abad neighborhood, who previously paid 240 million rials ($260) per month in rent, had to move to a smaller apartment due to rising costs. “I now pay 400 million rials ($430) a month for a place that is 10 square meters smaller,” he said.

While low-income citizens have long struggled with inflation, the economic crisis has now eroded the financial security of middle-class families. Many have reduced their spending on non-essential goods, and in some cases, even food quality has suffered.

With average monthly incomes now at just $120, while basic living costs exceed $500, over 30% of the population has fallen below the poverty line.

“This year, we let the dear people of Iran down and were forced to cut their electricity. At times, we also had to cut off electricity and gas to producers because of inefficient consumption,” Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday, calling for reduced reliance on foreign energy sources.

“The process we went through this year was by no means acceptable, and we must strive to move out of this situation next year.”

But power cuts are just one symptom of a worsening economic crisis. Government offices, banks, and schools in most of Iran’s 31 provinces have been closed for almost 12 days in the past month due to severe energy shortages.

With Iran already observing 28 official holidays per year, such additional shutdowns have paralyzed public services. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that school closures alone cost the country "10,000 billion rials per day" (over $10 million) and have significantly impacted student learning.

A teacher described the consequences to Shargh daily: “On the one hand, our income is cut with every closure since, unlike other teachers, we do not have fixed salaries. If it snows one day and schools are closed, we do not receive that day’s salary. Now, look at how many closures we’ve had this year.”

The country’s economic crisis runs deeper. Inflation reached 32% for the 12 months leading up to February 2025, according to the Iranian Statistics Center.

Over the past five years, annual inflation has hovered around 40%. The Iranian currency, the rial, has depreciated by more than 50% since September while the US has reinstated it “maximum pressure” policy on Iran over its nuclear ambitions while the Iranian Supreme Leader still calling the negotiations with the US unwise.

With the currency in freefall, the average monthly income has dropped from nearly $200 to just $120, while basic living expenses require at least $500. As a result, over 30% of Iranians now live below the poverty line.

Officials argue that raising wages would drive inflation higher, but labor relations expert Fatemeh Azizkhani dismissed this idea.

“Even if they increase wages by 100%, it will only cover part of the needs of working families,” she told Event 24, warning that failing to adjust salaries for inflation would push workers into critical conditions, over one third of Iranians now living below the poverty line in the worst crisis since the founding of the Islamic Republic.

On Thursday, spokesperson Esmail Baghaei denounced the strikes as a clear violation of the UN Charter and international law, citing repeated breaches of the 1974 agreement.

He also called on the UN Security Council to take immediate action to halt what he described as Israel's aggression.

"Israel’s occupation of parts of Syria’s territory and repeated violation of the Arab country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are tantamount to an act of aggression," he said.

The 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria, establishing a UN-monitored ceasefire and buffer zone, explicitly stated it was not a peace treaty but a step towards one.

However, following the instability caused by the Syrian civil war and the fall of Bashar Assad’s government, Israel declared the agreement void, leading to increased military activity, including an invasion of the buffer zone and aerial campaigns targeting Syrian military capabilities in December 2024.

On Wednesday, Israeli armed forces launched airstrikes at military sites in southern Syria, following Prime Minister Netanyahu's demand for the "complete demilitarization" of the region.

Residents reported low-flying planes over Damascus before the strikes, which a local monitoring group said targeted sites in Daraa province, including an airport previously hit by Israel. Syrian media also reported a strike near al-Kiswah.

Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria since 2011, aiming to disrupt Iran's use of the country as a conduit for smuggling supplies to its regional proxies, including Hezbollah.

While the Trump administration has promised "maximum pressure" on Iran, saying the Islamic Republic cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, 72% of the Democrat voters and 82% of Republicans opted in the poll "to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons facilities."

The poll’s wording assumed that Iran possesses nuclear weapons and did not specify which of Iran’s nuclear facilities are being used for weapons production.

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and the United States last publicly assessed that Tehran's enrichment levels aimed to give it the ability to rapidly build a bomb but it had not yet chosen to do so.

When asked if the US should support Israel in airstrikes these facilities, 57% overall said yes, 45% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans.

The IAEA has not confirmed that Iran's current nuclear program has a military aspect. However, it has previously raised concerns about Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons activities and more recent tensions over uranium enrichment approaching weapons-grade levels.

Despite concerns over undeclared nuclear materials and Iran’s lack of full cooperation, no official UN or IAEA report states that Iran is actively developing a nuclear weapon today.

The February survey was carried out on 2,443 registered voters, the results gauging public opinion, with an overwhelming majority showing a massive approval rating for the second term of President Donald Trump.

While Trump has promised a policy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran, he has also made clear his preference for diplomatic channels over military.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday: ”Iran's position in the nuclear talks is completely clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions.

"There is no possibility of direct negotiations between us and the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner.”

In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, and imposed 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Tehran, practically reducing Iran’s oil exports to less than 500,000 barrels per day and blocking the revenues in foreign banks.

Last month, Trump said he hoped a new deal over Iran's nuclear program meant the United States would not have to support an Israeli attack on Iran.

"It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step ... Iran hopefully will make a deal, and if they don't make a deal, I guess that's okay too,” he said during a press conference at the Oval.

However, this week, Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar has warned that a military option to stop Iran gaining nuclear weapons may be the only way forward.

Speaking to POLITICO, he said “we don't have much time". Only last year, the UN’s nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, warned that Iran was “weeks not months” from a nuclear weapon.

"I think that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table," Sa’ar said, as Iran has already enriched enough uranium for what he said was “a couple of bombs”.

The sanctions announced on February 24 followed similar measures by the US Treasury in late 2024, targeting ultra-large crude carriers in Iran's shadow fleet.

Such vessels, widely referred to as VLCCs, or very large crude carriers, can carry up to 2 million barrels of oil, far more than what a normal or large tanker can carry.

The VLCCs are essential for Iran's oil shipment, hence their targeting by the US Treasury since October last year.

With the latest US sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, nearly two-thirds of the 126 VLCCs shipping Iranian oil have now been blacklisted, according to oil tanker tracking data, forcing a significant number to abandon Iran and turn to transporting Russian oil.

Trump administration’s long road

Although stricter sanctions have complicated oil transportation for Iran’s VLCCs, claiming that Iran’s oil exports will face severe disruption and a catastrophic decline would be an exaggeration.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has identified 503 tankers with a combined capacity of 61 million tons of oil (over 350 million barrels), but sanctions currently cover less than 45% of this total capacity.

An investigation by Iran International shows that to maintain an average daily oil transit of 1.3 million barrels, as observed in recent months, Iran needs 45 VLCCs. Currently, 47 VLCCs linked to Iranian oil smuggling remain unsanctioned.

Meanwhile, dozens of VLCCs worldwide have surpassed 20 years of age in the past year, with each valued at an average of $25 million. Operators of the shadow fleet could potentially purchase some of these aging vessels. Notably, the number of foreign tankers involved in smuggling Iranian oil has surged sevenfold over the past five years.

In January 2024, China banned sanctioned tankers from docking at Shandong Port, its largest terminal for Iranian crude imports, causing Iranian oil offloading to drop to 850,000 barrels per day. However, a recent policy shift privatized part of the port, facilitating the reception of sanctioned crude cargoes. As a result, Iranian oil discharges in China surged to over 1.7 million barrels per day in February, according to industry intelligence firm Kpler.

Thus, it appears that the US still has a long road ahead to achieve what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a “90% reduction goal” in Iran’s oil exports.

Previously, several oil tanker tracking companies, in interviews with Iran International, estimated that Iran’s daily oil exports could drop by one-third in the coming months. However, they all agreed that such a scenario depends entirely on China's cooperation with the US.

Iran’s Difficult Situation

While foreign energy analysts and media mostly focus on Iran’s oil export volumes, the most critical issue for Iran—and especially for the US—is its oil export revenue.

Oil tanker tracking data from recent months indicate that Iran’s export volume has declined by around 25%. However, Iran’s domestic financial data suggests that its oil revenue has been cut in half, dropping below $1.8 billion per month.

This clearly highlights the soaring costs Iran has incurred to bypass US sanctions in recent months.

Meanwhile, Masoumeh Aghapour, an economic advisor to Iran’s president, acknowledged the country’s severe foreign currency shortages on February 25, just a day after the latest US sanctions targeted oil-related companies and tankers.

“We have a currency problem. Let’s be frank. Trump has played a major role in our forex market. The situation has become exponentially more difficult for us in the past two weeks,” she said.

Since early September, Iran’s national currency, the rial, has lost half of its value due to setbacks in the region and Trump’s election, as he has pledged to significantly cut Tehran’s oil exports.