Trump pressures Iraq to restart Kurdish oil exports, curb Iran's supply - Reuters

Speaking in Tehran on Thursday during a meeting with Iran’s armed forces chief Mohammad Bagheri, he called Iran the "home of the resistance."

"The victories of the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon were achieved with the support and effective role of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said.

He also described Iran’s direct involvement in the True Promise 1 and 2 operations—missile and drone attacks launched by Iran on Israel—as a "strategic and influential shift in the spirit of the region’s nations."

"We want to make ourselves available, providing technically sound alternatives to eliminate the possibility that Iran develops a nuclear weapon, to prevent Iran, or to help Iran prove that they don't want to develop a nuclear weapon," Rafael Grossi told reporters at Japan’s National Press Club.

"We hear the government say that. But as somebody said, we trust everybody, but we need to verify. So until we can have a very, very comprehensive watertight system of verification, we will not be satisfied."

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon but the United States assesses that it seeks such a capability and Israel sees its arch-foe wanting a bomb to destroy it.

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued a statement shortly after condemning Grossi's remarks as biased and inaccurate, saying "the burden of proof is on the claimant.”

"The IAEA director general, as a senior official of an important international organization, is expected to speak and act impartially, professionally, and without political bias," it said.

"At a time when the United States and certain Western countries are attempting to misuse the IAEA to exert unjust pressure on Iran, such politically motivated and unprofessional statements could serve as a pretext for their illegitimate ambitions.”

Time may be running out for a peaceful resolution to the nuclear standoff.

The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post reported last week citing US intelligence findings from last month that Israel saw an opening for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites as early as the first half of this year.

Iran is involved in ongoing negotiations with the so-called E3 European countries - Britain, France and Germany - who were signatories of a now largely defunct 2015 international deal over Iran's nuclear program.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Monday that Iran could fend off an attack by its enemies, after rejecting an overture from Trump for a deal over Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran says is peaceful but Israel insists aims at building a bomb.

JCPOA

Despite calling his recent visit to Iran constructive, Grossi said, “Iran is not still cooperating as we would like them to do.”

Grossi described a 2015 nuclear agreement, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as outdated and in need of a replacement albeit with a similar philosophy of Western economic incentives exchanged for Iranian curbing of enrichment.

"I discussed this with the foreign minister of Iran, Mr. (Abbas) Araghchi, maybe what you can have is the same philosophy of JCPOA, which is tit for tat. Which is, I restrain my activities in exchange for incentives - financial, economical or otherwise. But beyond this, I think it is no longer applicable," Grossi said.

"The JCPOA is an empty shell," Grossi added. "The JCPOA talked about one type of centrifuges but they have much more. They are enriching at 60% or almost weapon level, so it is a completely different nuclear program.”

The 2015 nuclear deal, signed by the Islamic Republic and six world powers, was aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief. However, during his first term, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, reinstating sanctions.

In response, Tehran reduced its commitments, and in 2020, its parliament passed a law restricting IAEA inspections beyond the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The dominant hardline faction in the Iranian parliament is pushing to impeach Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati just six months into his tenure, despite the economic crisis dating back to 2018, when then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed strict sanctions.

In a show of support for his embattled economic team, President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Central Bank Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin on Tuesday and met with Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati on Wednesday, following the formal submission of the impeachment motion against him.

Nonetheless, Pezeshkian’s appearance in parliament to defend his ministers did not stop the impeachment process from moving forward.

Although the parliamentary session was confidential, hardline lawmaker Hamid Rasai secretly recorded part of the proceedings and shared the footage on social media. The video captured Rasai sharply criticizing Hemmati, Farzin, and Pezeshkian himself.

Qasem Ravanbakhsh, an ultraconservative MP from Qom, sarcastically told reporters that during the meeting, Pezeshkian tried to blame everyone but himself for the country’s economic problems.

In response, Pezeshkian shared a video of his meeting with the economy minister, emphasizing that key economic policies were collectively decided by the country's leadership. He said, “I told the Majles that all banking, monetary, and foreign exchange policies were approved at meetings of the heads of the three branches of government, with Hemmati and Farzin also present. The minister did not set these policies. If anyone is to be blamed for the economic problems, it’s us—the heads of the three branches of government. So, come and arrest us!”

“To blame only one person is unfair,” Pezeshkian added.

Leaving some in the room perplexed, Pezeshkian continued by reciting a verse of classic Persian poetry by South Asian poet Sir Muhammad Iqbal of Lahore (1877–1938). The lines—“Open your eyes to yourself and close your eyes to others. Learn how to see and hear differently.”—did little to address the economic crisis, leaving many unsure of his intended message.

The pro-reform website Rouydad24 attributed Iran's economic troubles to US sanctions and regional tensions, including conflicts with Israel and Trump’s recent move to tighten sanctions. The site overlooked deeper structural issues within Iran’s economy and the disorganized political system that have also fueled the crisis.

Conservative politician Ali Mohammad Namazi told Nameh News that "People need to be convinced that the country's problems can be solved. However, Pezeshkian has failed to assure them that this is possible."

"Iranians are suffering from longstanding issues, and only effective solutions can restore their confidence," he added.

Namazi also warned that "people can no longer tolerate the economic hardships. They are struggling to live normal lives, and public dissent is growing. They might wait in the hope of a government solution, but this patience won’t last forever. Eventually, they will be compelled to protest."

The politician emphasized the urgency for officials to act swiftly, noting that lifting sanctions is the only way to address rising prices and inflation. He warned that without prompt action, the situation could become unpredictable if the inflation rate exceeds 50 percent.

He argued that Pezeshkian cannot claim ignorance of the country’s problems, given his extensive political experience as a multi-term parliament member and a former cabinet minister.

Pezeshkian’s main political rival is ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, who, according to Khabar Online, has obstructed nearly every initiative the president has pursued since June. This includes efforts to ease the compulsory hijab rule to gain women’s support, lift the ban on social media to appeal to young Iranians, and initiate minimal economic reforms.

Yet, despite the significance of this political rivalry, it is not Pezeshkian's biggest challenge. His primary issue is his admission during the election campaign that he had no clear plan for governing the country. This raises the question of how he managed to secure votes, even from the minority of Iranians who participated in the lackluster election, despite openly acknowledging his lack of a strategic agenda.

During the televised debates before the June election, Pezeshkian asked Jalili, “What will you do if Trump wins the US election?” Jalili confidently responded, “I have a plan. What about you?” Pezeshkian replied, “I will consult with experts.” Yet, if he has any expert advisors, they seem to have offered little in terms of solutions for the current impasse.

A clip from the game was presented on a national morning show last week by a uniformed officer of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the military force spearheading Tehran's foreign operations.

The game appeared to deploy dated graphics and features five levels set in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Israel, culminating in 'Operation True Promise'—the name Iran uses for its April and October 2024 strikes on Israel.

Players can launch missiles at shipping as Iran-allied Houthi fighters in Yemen or shell Israel as Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas.

Developed after the April attack following directives from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei the game aims to glorify Iran's military exploits. A trial version is now available on an Iranian online platform.

The development of True Promise aligns with Iran's broader agenda of using state media to project power and influence, in what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has called cultural warfare.

Khamenei has specifically mentioned video games as a means to promote Tehran's narratives of global events, according to Colonel Ehsan Rasti, Head of the Organization for the Development of Sacred Defense Culture in Virtual Space and New Technologies.

"In line with the Supreme Leader's directives after Operation True Promise, we tried to make this operation remain in history and its honors be passed on to adolescents. Accordingly, a game called True Promise was designed,” Rasti said.

“The Supreme Leader explicitly said that the Americans instill their objectives and perceptions in the audience through games, to the extent that a teenage player, after finishing a game, feels that their country has defeated Iran," he added.

The conservative Tehran-based website Tabnak quoted Hossein Allah-Karam, leader of the vigilante group Ansar Hezballah, as saying that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot follow through on their threats against Iran.

Tabnak described Allah-Karam as a political science professor at the University of Tehran and quoted him as asserting that Trump has failed to back his threats against Hamas. He concluded, “His other threat about bombing Iran if we do not sign a paper for him also cannot materialize.”

The hardline figure further claimed, “Trump’s performance has forced the United States and Israel to kneel before Gaza.”

He added, "We have achieved this with the capabilities we already have, so why should we challenge ourselves by opting to upgrade our capabilities?" This was perhaps a veiled reference to producing nuclear weapons and more potent ballistic missiles.

Allah-Karam’s remarks align with recent statements from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and some IRGC commanders suggesting Iran is prepared for conflict with Israel.

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In a recent speech, Khamenei called for upgrading Iran's ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, IRGC deputy commander Ali Fadavi said on Monday that a third direct attack on Israel will happen in due course. "Operation True Promise 3 will occur at the right time," Fadavi said.

Fadavi made these remarks in response to statements by Israeli and US officials regarding Iran’s perceived weakness, as well as Trump’s threat that Israel would bomb Iran if Tehran refused to negotiate with the United States over its controversial nuclear program.

He stated, “Not a single day has passed without the world's evildoers—the Great Satan, America, and its allies—waging war against us.”

Reformist political commentator Ahmad Zeidabadi warned on Telegram that "Netanyahu has already made preparations for attacking Iran in the coming months." He appeared to be referring to Trump's backing of the plan, possibly alluding to the shipment of US-made bunker buster bombs to Israel and stationing of US B-52 bombers somewhere in the region.

Zeidabadi added that "all official statements and both direct and indirect remarks from Israeli and US officials suggest that such an attack is imminent." He cautioned that "while it might be a limited strike, its consequences could be extremely destructive and uncontrollable."

On Monday, Canadian-based military analyst Houshang Hassanyari and German-based political analyst Ali Sadrzadeh, both Iranian-born, stated on Iran International TV that the Islamic Republic appears to be preparing for war against Israel. Both analysts agreed that Iranian officials and military commanders' claims about the country's military capabilities are based on illusion rather than reality.

Hassanyari warned that "the Islamic Republic is under a dangerous illusion. Khamenei believes his forces can defend Iran and deliver heavy blows to Israeli and US forces. Even if he is not actively planning a war against Israel, his rhetoric is pushing Iran toward one."

He added that Iran lacks strong military capabilities and is destined for a major defeat in any war. If a conflict with Israel breaks out, the United States will undoubtedly intervene to support Israel.

Sadrzadeh, however, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of war. "I do not believe Iran is preparing for a war with Israel, as its commanders and top officials must have at least a basic understanding of their forces' limitations. US officials say Iran has no effective air defense, and as far as I know, Tehran no longer has allies or strategic depth in the Middle East."

He also noted that the situation has changed since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Given the protests in Iran in recent years, it is inconceivable that Iranians would rally behind Khamenei’s idea of war against Israel.