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Iranian users dismiss WhatsApp unblocking as too little, too late

Dec 25, 2024, 18:29 GMT+0Updated: 12:00 GMT+0

A day after the Iranian government announced the lifting of restrictions on WhatsApp and Google Play, media and users erupted in outrage, accusing it of hypocrisy following the release of a 32-point plan to tighten and compartmentalize Internet access.

The lifting of Google Play restrictions changes little, as Iranians in the country remain unable to make purchases on the platform due to international banking limitations imposed by both the Iranian government and US sanctions.

Mehr News Agency, which published portions of the 32-point plan, quoted social media users stating that lifting the ban on WhatsApp and Google Play does little to help thousands of Iranian businesses operating on Instagram and Telegram, which remain inaccessible without the use of filter-breakers, otherwise known as circumvention software. The government’s ultimate plan is to establish more monitoring of users and controlled Internet access.

Hundreds of social media users noted that the declaration by the government did not change anything about its censorship of the Internet as although people can use WhatsApp for messaging, for all other platforms they still need to use VPNs to circumvent the censorship.

Iran began aggressively blocking websites in early 2,000s, even before the rise of social media, citing political and religious reasons. The beginning of blocking websites in Iran dates to 1998 and the reformist government of Mohammad Khatami. With the increased use of home internet in Iran, Ali Khamenei issued the "General Policies about Computer and Information Networks," which was subsequently implemented by the government with the objective of filtering of the Internet and overseeing the activities of Internet service providers (ISPs).

For over two decades, most independent Iranian news and political websites have remained inaccessible. Starting in 2009, Western social media platforms, including Facebook, were also blocked. In response, most Iranians turned to circumvention tools, such as VPNs, to bypass digital censorship.

In 2014, Hassan Rouhani's government launched the "Intelligent Internet Filtering" plan, further restricting Iranians' access to the Internet. After the 2017-2018 protests, Telegram and Instagram were also blocked. During the nationwide internet shutdown in the November 2019 protests, the government escalated its efforts to block websites and applications, aiming to disrupt protest organization, and hinder the mobilization of demonstrators.

Meanwhile, as some pro-government reformist newspapers such as Arman Melli ran headlines like "The filtering has been broken," others, including the reformist daily Etemad, emphasized that this is merely "a first step in a gradual move to lift the filtering" and urged the nation to "wait for the next step."

According to the plan, in the "next step" platforms such as YouTube might be made accessible through an added local layer or shelf that checks the users' identity and monitors what they upload and download.

Conservative newspapers, including Jam-e Jam, which is affiliated with Iran's state television, warned the government that cyberspace must be "governed" with stricter controls.

Prominent economic journalist Maryam Shokrani criticized the move on X, writing: "Are you kidding the people? We always need foreign filter-breakers to access most applications, and then have to turn them off to use Iranian banking and other apps. What has changed now…?"

Akbar Montajabi the editor-in-chief of centrist daily Sazandegi, who has over 11,900 followers, wrote on the same platform: "What has been done is good but insufficient as a first step." He advised the government: "Do not worry about lifting the filtering. Worry about losing the people's trust and your social capital."

Internet security expert Amir Nazemi, who has over 24,000 followers, analyzed the development from a political perspective. Writing on X, he said: "Filtering, slowing down Internet speeds, and cutting off access (as seen during the 2019 protests and afterward) were all tactics implemented with the Supreme Leader's approval. His signature remains on the ratification by the Supreme Council of National Security. With yesterday's decision, Mr. Khamenei has, for the first time, reversed one of his domestic political decisions. This is unprecedented and the only aspect of this development that carries real news value."

Meanwhile, Filterbaan, an account with around 12,000 followers which advocates digital and internet access rights in Iran explained that what has been already done in the first of a three-step plan, and wrote that the plan is not meant to facilitate Internet access. It is rather meant to make it even harder based on the 32-point plan drawn by the Supreme Council of Cyberspace.

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Iran sinking deeper into crisis as currency drops to new lows

Dec 25, 2024, 15:06 GMT+0

While the US dollar reached a new high against Iran’s currency on Wednesday, an economist warned that without an agreement with Washington soon, inflation could climb above 40% before the Iranian New Year in March.

Macroeconomist Morteza Afqah told Tehran’s Khabar Online news website on Wednesday that “If no agreement is reached, the likelihood of reinstating the ‘maximum pressure’ policy against Iran is high.

"Inflation could surpass 40% by the end of the year. Without the lifting of sanctions, the country appears incapable of managing the economy sustainably.”

Iran’s currency, the rial, has depreciated nearly 20-fold since 2018, when President Donald Trump first imposed "maximum pressure" sanctions on the country. Since September alone, the rial has lost an additional 30% of its value.

The current annual inflation rate is unclear, but official figures have hovered around 40% since 2019, with prices for food and other essentials rising at an even faster pace.

The rial was trading at nearly 800,000 per US dollar on Wednesday and over one million per British pound.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s administrative chief cleric Mohammad Mohammadi Golpaygani conceded on Wednesday that “We are not in a normal situation in the country. For years, we have been burdened by sanctions, facing difficulties in exporting oil.”

However, he added, “In these circumstances, the nation's power comes with its own challenges. After all, being a Muslim nation has its costs and is not something achieved easily.”

Afqah, in turn, expressed deep pessimism about the economy overall, seeing no reason to be optimistic.

"The short- and even medium-term outlook for our country’s economy is not promising. There isn’t much hopeful news or any so-called good news to cling to. Each individual economic and even non-economic factor is structured in a way that leads to rising costs, higher inflation, and a decline in economic growth rates," he said.

The pressure on Iran’s Islamic government is not just economic but also geopolitical, after its key non-state allies, Hamas and Hezbollah were seriously weakened by Israeli blows earlier this year, followed by the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Iran had invested tens of billions of dollars in keeping Assad in power against his domestic opponents, but in a matter of days, the armed opposition swept through the country, capturing Damascus and deposing the long-serving authoritarian president, who fled to Russia.

The incoming Trump administration has signaled that it is inclined to increase the pressure, not just to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program, but more likely to inhibit its power projections throughout the Middle East.

Syria to target Iran with $300 billion compensation demand - Lebanese outlet

Dec 25, 2024, 12:19 GMT+0

Syria’s new administration is preparing a $300 billion compensation demand against Iran for damages caused during its support for ousted President Bashar al-Assad, according to Lebanese outlet Al-Modon on Tuesday.

The compensation is intended for “the Syrian people and the Syrian state, for the harm caused by Tehran’s ‘criminal and arbitrary’ policies to the Syrians and the Syrian infrastructure during its military alignment with its militias in favor of the regime of the ousted president, Bashar al-Assad,” Al-Modon quoted an unnamed source close to Syria’s new political administration as saying.

While Syria accuses Iran of causing extensive harm to its people and infrastructure, Iranian politicians are grappling with the opposite concern—the potential loss of billions Iran invested in propping up Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei addressed these concerns last week, dismissing claims that Syria owes Iran between $30 and $50 billion, calling the figures exaggerated. He explained that any debts would transfer to Syria’s new political system under the principle of state succession. “These figures, such as the claim of a $50 billion debt owed to Iran by Syria, are truly very exaggerated,” Baghaei said.

Conflicting reports about Iranian embassy reopening

Adding to the tension, an Al-Modon source denied any ongoing communication between the Iranian government and Syria’s new administration. The source said, “Communication between the new administration and Iran is completely cut off,” and added, “The new administration has no current plans to engage with Iran, whether regarding an embassy in Damascus or a consulate in Aleppo.”

This is while, the Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani on Tuesday said that Iran is in talks to reopen its embassy in Damascus.

Regional events signal a chance to move beyond Tehran's influence

Dec 25, 2024, 12:05 GMT+0
•
Morad Vaisi

The world is witnessing a period of significant regional setbacks and retreats for the Islamic Republic. After two decades of massive financial expenditures and international isolation, Tehran’s strongholds and allies are crumbling one by one across the region.

This phase began with the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah, continued with the weakening of Bashar al-Assad and Iran’s diminishing influence in Syria, and is now advancing as Israel focuses on defeating the Houthis in Yemen.

Evidence suggests that even Iraq’s pro-Tehran Hashd al-Shaabi militia has scaled back its overt support for the Islamic Republic’s agenda, leaving Tehran increasingly isolated in the face of an alliance comprising the US, Israel, and even Europe. Domestically, severe economic challenges and widespread public dissatisfaction have created one of the most difficult periods in the history of the Islamic Republic.

In this context, the overall US policy is combining political, economic, and even military pressure to push the Islamic Republic to the negotiating table. The aim is to reach an agreement stricter than the JCPOA, either halting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs or exposing it to intensified pressure and even potential military action if it refuses to comply.

Despite its structural weaknesses and mounting international pressures, the Islamic Republic’s leadership remains defiant. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatens nuclear weaponization and reclaiming Syria, while simultaneously sending signals of willingness to negotiate through diplomats like Mohammad Javad Zarif. However, it appears that the US, Israel, and even Europe are aware of the dangers of a resurgent Islamic Republic and are determined to prevent it from returning to a position of defiance and belligerence.

The chain of setbacks for the Islamic Republic began with Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023. Tehran mistakenly believed this assault would inflict an irreparable defeat on Israel.

Misguided analyses by the Islamic Republic’s leaders, particularly Khamenei and IRGC commanders, led to decisions that resulted in a series of defeats.

In response to the attack, Israel acted swiftly, strengthening its regional position within 15 months. This included large-scale military operations against Hamas, destruction of its military bases, and the assassination of senior leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, Saleh al-Arouri, and Ismail Haniyeh. Israel also ignored warnings from the US and the international community to launch an offensive in Gaza, leveraging force to reshape the Middle East.

The second major misstep by the Islamic Republic occurred when it urged Hezbollah to attack Israel’s northern borders in support of Hamas. Initially, Israel issued repeated warnings for Hezbollah to cease its aggression. When these warnings were ignored, Israel launched an operation dubbed New Order, which delivered surprising results. These included the destruction of Hezbollah’s command centers and equipment, as well as the killing of senior leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. These developments fundamentally altered the region’s dynamics and demonstrated that, like Hamas, Hezbollah lacks the capability to withstand Israel’s extensive military campaigns.

On the international stage, the US and Europe, recognizing the Islamic Republic’s vulnerabilities, are now seeking to capitalize on this opportunity to drive significant changes in Iran’s regional policies. Meanwhile, Israel’s aggressive strategies aim to keep Tehran on the defensive.

Within Iran, widespread public dissatisfaction with the regime’s policies and economic mismanagement has deeply affected the country’s social and political landscape.

Popular protests and civil movements highlight the critical role of the Iranian people in shaping the nation’s future. The convergence of international, regional, and domestic pressures has created a historic opportunity to move beyond the Islamic Republic.

Iran's police deploy new command centers for desert operations

Dec 25, 2024, 09:58 GMT+0

Iran's Police Chief Ahmadreza Radan announced plans to set up three command centers to oversee Takavaran units (elite special operations forces) in the nation’s desert areas.

"While Iran's vast desert regions have undeniable geographical beauty, they are not without their inherent complexities and strategic considerations; we aim to guarantee that the desert remains a secure and stable environment, free from any acts of malice or unrest," Radan added.

Elaborating on their locations, Radan explained that one command center will be established in Semnan, another in the Kerman and Yazd regions, and the central command will oversee operations in Sistan-Baluchestan and South Khorasan provinces.

Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province has experienced numerous attacks attributed to Jaish al-Adl, a group notorious for ambushes, bombings, and other operations that have claimed the lives of both civilians and security personnel.

Jaish al-Adl advocates for an independent Balochistan, encompassing Baloch populations on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border, and has carried out numerous armed attacks in southeastern Iran.

Iran may nix Starlink internet unless SpaceX heeds rules, ex-official says

Dec 24, 2024, 20:08 GMT+0

A former Iranian official said Tehran could disrupt the Starlink satellite internet service if Elon Musk's SpaceX refuses to adhere to unspecified regulations, in another sign of official wariness of unfettered internet access for its citizens.

"SpaceX must comply with Iran's regulations, otherwise the Islamic Republic could disrupt its coverage," said Amir Mohammadzadeh Lajevardi, the former deputy minister for Information and Communication Technology.

Lajevardi, who is considered close to current thinking and decision-makers, made the remarks in an interview with the state television.

The remarks come after the Supreme Council of Cyberspace announced Iran would lift restrictions on some digital platforms like WhatsApp and Google Play while maintaining control on others.

Iranians who face some of the world's toughest internet restrictions have in recent months shared videos and photos of Starlink satellite internet terminals being installed on rooftops, raising expectations that this technology could soon render the government’s internet filtering efforts ineffective.

"In the two years since Washington green lit SpaceX’s satellite internet service," Forbes reported earlier this month, "an underground worldwide network of smuggling and advocacy has brought uncensored internet to thousands of people in the Islamic Republic."

The availability of Starlink is seen by many as a potential game-changer for bypassing state-imposed online restrictions, allowing greater access to unfiltered internet in Iran.

In October 2023, Iran's Ministry of Telecommunications demanded that SpaceX obtain licensing for Starlink operations and filed a complaint with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) over unauthorized use in Iran, which resulted in a ruling in Iran's favor.

While over 60 countries have approved Starlink services, Iran is likely to demand access to user data—a request SpaceX would almost certainly reject.

The terminals typically cost around $500, depending on the model, with a monthly subscription fee of $110. However, in the Iranian market, prices are significantly higher, reaching up to three times the standard cost.

Those found using Starlink in Iran risk prosecution for possessing smuggled goods.

In November 2023, Iranian security forces confiscated 22 Starlink terminals, claiming they were CIA property intended for use by the office of dissident Sunni cleric Abdolhamid Esmail-Zehi.