Iran International
Donald Trump’s second presidency could accomplish peace in the Middle East and his son-in-law Jared Kushner is the ticket, one American academic and Trump insider told Iran International.
Speaking on the Eye for Iran podcast, Jeff Sonnenfeld, who has known the president-elect for decades, assisted Kushner in the 2019 Peace through Prosperity conference in Bahrain, which outlined the Abraham Accords.
The US mediated the agreements between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Israel, with the intent of normalizing ties between the Arab states and Israel. Since its inception in 2020, the UAE and Israel, for example have deepened ties across economic and defense domains.
Sonnenfeld told Iran International that Trump often rules with a divide and conquer method and that the Abraham Accords was an anomaly.
The reason for this: Jared Kushner.
“This was the anomaly where I think it's Jared's brilliance that he yielded to weaving it together,” said Sonnenfeld on Eye for Iran.
Sonnenfeld, an associate dean at Yale University, wrote critiques of Trump’s show the Apprentice. Him and Trump formed a friendship after the then- business mogul complained about the academic’s harsh reviews of his show and business practices.
Flashforward to Trump’s first presidency and Sonnenfeld was asked by the President to join his son-in-law in a summit that led to the monumental agreements normalizing relations between Israel and some Arab countries.
An extension of the Abraham Accords could be on the horizon with a second Trump presidency if Kushner gets back into his role.
“If he [Kushner] gets drafted back into the middle East, his currency there is still fantastic. And he could, he could regenerate a lot of this.”
According to an Israeli publication, Israel Hayom, Kushner has returned to assist the president-elect in preparing for the incoming administration, citing a source close to the matter.
It is expected that Trump will have a tougher stance on Iran than his predecessor Joe Biden.
Oil sales are a critical source of funding for Iran, representing up to 70 percent of government revenues.
During his first presidency, Trump imposed sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which reduced the volume of Iranian oil exports by 95 percent, cutting Iranian oil revenues by about $50 billion.
Sonnenfeld believes Trump would go after Iranian revenues by re-enforcing oil sanctions. He said during the first Trump administration, Sonnenfeld said the lost oil supply was replaced by increased production from other Persian Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia that led to the fall of global oil prices.
During the Biden administration, enforcement of these sanctions lapsed. According to the Energy Information Agency (EIA), which published a report about Iran’s petroleum exports, Iran sold $144 billion in the first three years of the Biden administration. That's$100 billion more than what Tehran exported in the last two years of the Trump administration when the oil sanctions were in effect.
Then there’s the nuclear issue.
Donald Trump has repeatedly said during recent interviews and the campaign trail that he would not allow Iran to be a nuclear power. He characterized a nuclear Iran as a threat to Israel and regional security in the Middle East, and he is poised to re-prioritize Iranian nuclear disarmament.
Iran is closer to a nuclear bomb. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that Iran's estimated stockpile of enriched uranium had reached more than 30 times the limit set out in the 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers. Iran maintains that their nuclear ambitions are peaceful.
One new factor for Trump this time around is that Israel has considerably weakened Iran’s deterrence by crushing both Hamas and Hezbollah. That has created an environment where the Islamic Republic is in a more vulnerable position. But none of this means war, said Sonnenfeld.
In Trump’s victory speech, he said: “I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.”
Sonnenfeld predicts a more peaceful Mideast under Trump's leadership with the influence and guidance of his son-in-law. He also doesn’t foresee war as the means to get there, in fact, an extension of the Abraham Accords and maximum pressure is what he views as the path going forward.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran featuring Jeff Sonnenfeld on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Castbox, Apple or Amazon.
