IRGC arrest 12 Afghans amid intensified crackdown on migrants

This comes as a new report by the Associated Press questions just how accurate Iran’s long-valued missile program is, raising doubts about the abilities of Iran’s missile arsenal.

The report by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies has not been posted online yet and was shared exclusively with the AP. Iran International reached out to the center’s analysts who were not able to provide an interview.

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute, specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the greater region, and Jay Solomon, an investigative reporter with The Free Press, joined Iran International’s English podcast, ‘Eye for Iran’ to provide insight into the nature of Iran’s missile program and how it relates to getting closer to a nuclear bomb.

To analyze the precision of Iran’s missile program, Nadimi, said we need to look at the whole picture. Sometimes it can be a failure like many Iranian missiles failing to launch and crashing before their intended target, but other times it can be successful and deadly.

Analysts at the non-proliferation center studied the Islamic Republic’s strike on the Nevatim Air Base in Israel with what was believed to be its Emad missile and assumed that Iran was targeting Israeli F-35I fighter jet hangers. They measured the distance between the hangars and the impact zones of the missiles, concluding an accuracy range of 1.2 kilometers, which is far less than the advertised.

“At least since 2017, Iran has been using ballistic missiles attacking neighboring countries with a series of solid propellant missiles fired at targets in Syria and Iraq and on several occasions, they were very accurate. In fact, in 2018 they managed to strike the very room in a certain building in Iraqi Kurdistan where a group of dissident Iranian Kurds were meeting and they managed to kill and injure several of the dissident Kurdish members,” said Nadimi.

Understanding just how much danger Iran’s missiles can pose is significant.

The Iranian government continues to vow at striking Israel, promising to avenge the killing of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The Israelis have not claimed responsibility but are believed to be behind it. And as Russia pounds Ukraine with missile attacks, the Wall Streel Journal reports that Iran has sent several short-range ballistic missiles to Russia citing US and European allies. Bloomberg also recently reported an imminent delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia, citing European allies of Ukraine.

Knowing the accuracy of Iran’s missile arsenal would help determine how much of a hit civilians would take in Ukraine – and the severity of any potential attack on Israel.

Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear ambitions are intricately linked. Ballistic missile defense can complement, but not substitute for, the role of nuclear weapons in deterrence. US officials have said the ease at which Israel and its allies intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones launched at them in April could propel Iranian authorities to obtain greater military capabilities. 

A recent report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) claims Iran could have a nuclear bomb before the US presidential election. The organization warned that while most US officials monitor Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium to 90%, the Islamic Republic is taking covert steps toward a nuclear weapon.

Iranian government documents, obtained and reviewed by The Free Press, reveal that Tehran is expanding the activities and funding for a Department of Defense unit believed to be at the center of nuclear weapons development.

The organization, known by its Farsi acronym, SPND, has been followed closely by the US, Israel and the United Nations because it's believed to play a key role in covert nuclear weapons research.

“This office has been the focus for a while of this is where the weaponization work has happened,” said Solomon on the Eye for Iran podcast.

Solomon said the expansion of SPND would be in an honor of a nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was allegedly the head of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Fakhrizadeh was killed near Tehran in 2020 allegedly with a remote-controlled machine gun.

After his death, the government said Fakhrizadeh's department would have virtually unlimited funding. "And if you look at these three pillars of Iran's program, the missiles that we'll be talking about, the fissile material, and then actual weaponization work, the fact that SPND is now being ramped up is very troubling," said Solomon.

For more on just how accurate Iran's ballistic missiles are and how it relates to Iran getting closer to becoming a nuclear power, watch the full episode on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Castbox, or Amazon.

"If people know what is in their interest, they will leave themselves in the hands of an expert surgeon…Naturally, we have to have surgeries in many areas to get the country out of this situation," Pezeshkian said. He emphasized that people must be brought onboard of any reforms and must agree with government actions.

Pezeshkian and other Islamic Republic leaders recognize the political risks of a major economic "surgery," which could cause immediate hardship for citizens before showing benefits. However, Pezeshkian is banking on two factors. First, cooperation from all regime factions: "If we want to do surgery, we must join hands with all politicians and officials," he said, a strategy that helped secure parliamentary approval for his cabinet. Second, he hopes the economic pain will not impact a large portion of the population, emphasizing the need to protect vulnerable groups.

The key question is what kind of "surgery" Pezeshkian envisions to pull the government out of its deepening economic crisis. To answer this, we must first assess the current crises. By mid-2024, the Iranian government faces six major socio-economic challenges, each of which has the potential to trigger security risks.

1. Energy crisis: Iran faces a growing gap between energy production and consumption. Electricity demand exceeds supply by 10,000 megawatts, leading to power outages of up to 8 hours in some areas, including industries. Gasoline consumption is 10 to 12 million liters higher than production, forcing the government to import fuel at a cost of $4 to $8 billion annually. Additionally, natural gas shortages result in winter outages, highlighting the urgent need for energy sector reforms.

2. Government budget deficit: A 50% budget deficit crisis, led to money printing in the past 6 years and over 40% annual inflation.

3. Crisis in the banking system: Chronic issues like the government’s budget deficit, excessive borrowing, high levels of bank debt, sanctions, and misaligned credit policies plague Iran’s banking system. Many banks are burdened with debts that exceed their assets, creating a severe financial imbalance. These systemic problems contribute to instability, making the banking sector a significant weak point in the country’s economy.

4. Environment - Iran faces severe environmental crises, including water resource depletion, soil erosion, and air pollution, which have led to the depopulation of half of the country’s villages. Urban and agricultural land subsidence, critical water shortages in many provinces, and the drying up of lakes and rivers have compounded the problem. These issues have pushed water availability to critical levels, resulting in the collapse of many farming operations and the widespread bankruptcy of farmers, further destabilizing the country’s rural economy.

5. Pension fund crisis: Iran's pension funds are effectively bankrupt. The National Pension Fund currently covers only 4% of retirees' salaries, leaving the government to cover the remaining 96%, placing immense pressure on public finances.

6. Employment crisis: With 24 million employed out of a working-age population of 65 million, the government’s unemployment figures appear unreliable. After accounting for students and conscripts, about 55 million are eligible to work, meaning roughly 55% of the population is outside the labor market, signaling a severe employment gap.

The Pezeshkian administration does not plan to address the third to sixth crises and lacks the capacity to do so. However, to tackle the energy crisis and budget deficit (and, by extension, inflation), Pezeshkian proposes removing energy and wheat subsidies and reallocating funds to the government budget and low-income groups, who now make up around 70% of the population. He believes that by increasing energy costs, consumption will decrease, reducing gasoline imports and bread waste. However, similar efforts by previous administrations failed to yield these results.

Pezeshkian has few options left. The Rouhani and Raisi administrations already pushed taxes to the market's capacity, and any further increases risk igniting widespread strikes.

The only viable option left for the current administration is to raise the prices of bread and energy, particularly gasoline, which constitute a large portion of the subsidies. This move comes despite the deadly consequences of the 2019 gasoline price hike, which led to over 1,500 deaths. However, the likelihood of a similar gasoline price surge as seen in 2019 is very small. Pezeshkian faces difficult choices, as further tax increases would likely provoke strikes, leaving subsidy cuts as the only remaining path.

The authorities may consider several approaches to raising gasoline prices, but regardless of the approach, raising gasoline prices will have widespread economic consequences, affecting the cost of nearly everything and significantly driving up inflation, which poses a substantial challenge for the government.

As seen during Rafsanjani's economic adjustments in the 1990s and Ahmadinejad’s energy subsidy cuts, such "economic surgeries" in the Islamic Republic have historically worsened poverty without addressing structural issues. Institutionalized corruption and lack of transparency remain major obstacles to meaningful reform. These policies have consistently led to widespread public unrest, with protests erupting across dozens of cities in the 1990s and hundreds of cities in the 2010s. The risk of repeating these outcomes remains high if similar measures are pursued without structural changes.

In recent months, US officials, cybersecurity experts, and global tech corporations like Microsoft and Meta have reported Iranian-linked attempts to hack American individuals and organizations with the specific aim to “stoke discord and erode trust” in the US institutions.

On Friday, a senior US intelligence official once again mentioned Iran along with Russia and China as actors attempting to sway the November 2024 presidential election, saying that Tehran has stepped up its involvement compared to previous years.

US intelligence agencies have issued warnings to those targeted by foreign influence campaigns, the American official said.

"Pro-Iran" websites

In a report released on Friday, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) named 19 websites as part of a "pro-Iran" network aimed at destabilizing the US political system. The report did not explicitly link the sites to the Iranian government but urged US authorities to shut down the sites with the cooperation of allied countries where the websites may be hosted.

The FDD also recommended further investigations to identify Iranian actors behind the influence campaign, proposing sanctions or legal action as necessary.

Among the websites flagged by the FDD, two are highlighted for their audience reach: Afro Majority and Not Our War. The former, FDD says, targets African American communities, with content hostile to former President Donald Trump and supportive of Vice President Kamala Harris. The latter has focused on US veterans, criticizing both Trump and current President Joe Biden, promoting a narrative that undermines trust in the US, according to FDD.

Examples include a post on Not Our War headlined "The Bitter Choice: Biden vs. Trump and the Illusion of Democracy in the US" and a post on Afro Majority praising Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for his backing of anti-Israel protests.

The scope of Iran's activities extends beyond disinformation. In yet another recent report, Microsoft and Google warned about attempts to breach U.S. presidential campaigns in the lead-up to the November election.

Last month, Meta (formerly Facebood) said it had thwarted attempts by Iranian hackers to compromise the WhatsApp accounts of US officials connected to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The hackers allegedly posed as technical support representatives from companies like Google and Microsoft to gain unauthorized access. Meta said it had quickly intervened, blocking the accounts before any significant breaches occurred.

Some experts have warned that foreign actors, including Iran, Russia, and China, are increasingly sophisticated in their attempts to influence American voters, even inciting violence against political figures to create chaos and undermine the integrity of the upcoming elections.

The Biden administration has informed its allies that Iran delivered short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, providing Moscow with a significant new military tool amid its ongoing war against Ukraine, the WSJ report said.

This move comes despite Western warnings urging Iran not to supply arms to Russia, and marks a major escalation in Iran’s military support for Russia.

"The missiles have finally been delivered," a US official said. The shipment reportedly includes several hundred short-range ballistic missiles, capable of reaching up to 500 miles. These missiles could help bolster Russia’s intensified missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, which have recently led to the deaths of dozens of civilians.

"We have been warning of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and are alarmed by these reports," said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett. "Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."

Iran had already been providing drones to Russia, which have been used extensively in Ukraine. Additionally, Russia has sourced ammunition and missiles from North Korea for its military campaign.

Such a deepening partnership could further isolate Iran from the West and worsen an economy already in crisis mode, as ballistic missile transfers to Russia would likely be met with additional sanctions on Iran by Western powers, as promised by Ukraine's western allies.

In response to the missile deliveries, European and US officials are preparing to implement new sanctions against Iran, according to the WSJ report.

European leaders had previously warned that they would impose coordinated sanctions if Iran proceeded with the missile transfers.

According to Western officials, sanctions could include banning Iran's flag carrier, Iran Air, from European airports, and targeting companies and individuals involved in the missile shipments, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Russia's access to Iranian ballistic missiles could devastate civilian populations, marking a turning point in the conflict, Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with the Washington Institute, told Iran International.

He said some of these missiles will have enough range to hit Western Ukraine and strike important targets like railway stations. "It's going to have a really bad effect on civilians."

Iran has long accused the semi-autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq of harboring groups, all under the Komala name, which Tehran labels as terrorist organizations. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has frequently launched attacks on their bases, claiming these groups pose a threat to the security of the Islamic Republic.

In March 2023, the governments of Iran and Iraq signed a ‘border security’ agreement that was, in essence, a plan to curb the activities of Iran’s Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq. The agreement led to partial evacuation of Komala bases in September 2023. The move now seems to have been completed, with the three Kurdish parties, with military wings, leaving their camps in the Zirgwez region near Sulaymaniyah and settling in camps in Suwardash near Dukan.

The new location is in fact closer to the border with Iran but less accessible, according to Komala sources who talked to Iran International on condition of anonymity. “The ability to transport and maintain weapons, especially the semi-heavy and heavy weapons of the Peshmerga forces, has effectively been taken from them,” one member said.

He added that by forcing a move of the Komala inside another country’s territory, Iran's government has sent a “clear message” that it can do “whatever it wants” and neither the Iraqi central government nor the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq can stop it.

The groups say they oppose the clerical regime in Iran, but many Iranians also view them as separatists, who harbor designs on Iran's Kurdish populated areas in the west.

Iran’s government, through its IRGC Quds Force, enjoys considerable sway over authorities in Iraq, both in Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurdish regional capital. On occasions, however, the relationship has bittered over IRGC attacks on Kurdish groups.

Tehran Erbil security cooperation

Nechirvan Barzani, the President of Iraq's Kurdistan Region, made an unexpected visit to Iran in May, where he met with top leaders, sparking strong criticism from opponents of the Iranian regime.

During his visit, Barzani engaged with key figures of the government, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, heads of executive and legislative bodies, the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, the foreign minister, and the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The timing and nature of Barzani's visit, coming months after the IRGC's missile attack on the Kurdistan Region, raised questions about its motives. The high-profile meetings suggest that the discussions likely focused on mutual security concerns.

In January, the Iraqi government recalled its ambassador from Tehran after an IRGC missile attack on Erbil killed four civilians and injured six others. The attack caused a popular outrage in Iraqi Kurdistan and thousands took to the streets denouncing the IRGC's ‘free hand’ in their region.

The IRGC claimed the target had been an Israeli “spy headquarter” in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, but the Kurdish prime minister Masrour Barzani categorically denied the claims and called the attack a “crime against the Kurdish people.”