The latest report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence accuses Iran of becoming ever bolder in boasting about its nuclear weapons as the chances of a return to the JCPOA nuclear deal look to be fading away.
"There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo,” the report stated.
In May, Iranian MP Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani said openly that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon. It followed closely on the heels of remarks by Kamal Kharrazi, senior foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had said that Tehran will change its nuclear doctrine if its archenemy Israel were to attack its atomic facilities.
For years, the Islamic Republic has insisted that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, despite enriching uranium to 60-percent purity, which can only have a weaponization purpose.
"Since 2020, Iran has repeatedly stated that it is no longer constrained by any Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) limits, expanded its nuclear program, reduced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, and undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so,” the US intelligence report noted.
However, it comes in stark contrast to the report released just last year in which it wrote that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device”.
That assessment rang hollow after it was revealed recently by the UN’s nuclear chief, Raphael Grossi, that Iran is “weeks not months” away from a nuclear weapon.
The latest report, under the Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022, acknowledges the imminent threat the program poses as Iran continues to increase the size of its uranium stockpile, its enrichment capacity, and development, manufacturing, and operation of advanced centrifuges.
“Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, at multiple facilities, if it chooses to do so,” the report noted.
The country’s nuclear capabilities have become a bargaining chip on the global stage, noted the report, which states that “Iran uses its nuclear program for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure,” which has included hostage diplomacy with nations including Sweden and the US.
In line with UN inspectors, the report warns that “Iran probably will consider installing more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, or enriching uranium up to 90 percent in response to additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program,” as global sanctions fail to stem the tide of armament.
It notes that Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region and the government continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of these systems.
As the program continues, the unclassified report notes that “Iran probably is incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attack against Israel in April”.
The first ever direct attack from Iran to Israel saw over 350 missiles and drones fired towards Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition. It was in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in which two IRGC commanders were killed along with several other senior personnel.
But the intelligence suggests Iran’s armament development continues to gain pace in spite of global sanctions not only for Iran's nuclear program but for human rights abuses at home and its support of Russia's war on Ukraine. Iran has been supplying suicide drones to Russia used on civilian targets.
“Iran’s work on space-launch vehicles—including its Simorgh—probably would shorten the timeline to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile, if it decided to develop one, because the systems use similar technologies,” the report stated.
