Iran’s Peculiar Election: Where Competition Is a Criminal Offense
Behrouz Turani
Iran International
The Iranian snap presidential election on June 28 is marked by a series of oddities unfolding before the eyes of indifferent voters.
Iran International
The Iranian snap presidential election on June 28 is marked by a series of oddities unfolding before the eyes of indifferent voters.
On Thursday, June 6, former populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a well-known candidate, made an appearance at Tehran's bustling traditional Bazaar. It is one of the best locations to demonstrate that large crowds can gather around a candidate—or anyone else, for that matter.
A video surfaced on social media showing Ahmadinejad amidst a crowd, where a woman approached him, grabbed his hand, and remarked, "You were not that handsome when you were president. You look more beautiful now!" Such a comment would typically land the woman in the back of a Morality Police van, facing club-wielding policewomen in head-to-toe black chadors ready to beat the passion out of her. However, things are different during election times.
Nonetheless, there are things no one can joke with. Guardian Council Secretary, 97-year-old Ahmad Jannati warned on live state TV that "No one shall dare to tell us to endorse or not to endorse any candidate's qualifications." This comes while speaking about the 2013 presidential election in Iran, former Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi said that he went to the Guardian Council and told its members to disqualify former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, once the number two man in Iran, who was a candidate in that year.
On Wednesday, Iran's Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib warned all presidential candidates at a meeting with top government officials that the ministry monitors all comments and actions by presidential candidates and if needed will refer them to the Judiciary.
Ironically, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf who was present there, is a candidate himself. Meanwhile, the fact that one of the candidates is a member of the board that decides about the elections is yet another irony about the Iranian presidential election. Undeniably, his presence there gives him a leverage and insider information that could work to his benefit.
In another development, the Press Supervisory Board told the media that encouraging others to boycott the elections will be a criminal offense. This adds to the intensity of the security situation ahead of the elections. Iranian analyst Jaber Rajabi told Iran International that these security measures are being enforced because officials did not have enough time to prepare for engineering the snap election that followed the death of Iran's former President Ebrahim Raisi.
Meanwhile, repeated calls from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi for candidates and the media to avoid criticizing other candidates or the Raisi government render the elections largely meaningless. Many wonder how candidates can effectively argue their positions on political, economic, cultural, and other issues without demonstrating that their rivals' ideas are less effective. While the only explanation by many candidates who come from within the Raisi administration is that they simply want to continue his plans, it is understandable that for others, the election is about change, and it is hard to advocate change without first proving that there is something wrong with the status quo.
While registering his candidacy, Roads Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash was the only candidate who presented a plan. However, it was soon discovered to be a copy of the plan Raisi had presented at the start of his government in 2021. "Nice cheat!" commented many social media users.
As several of Raisi's cabinet ministers as well as his chief of staff registered their candidacy, many wondered why they could not form a coalition and present a single candidate.
In another similar instance, Deputy Majles Speaker Ali Nikzad and his brother Akbar Nikzad registered their candidacy within an hour of each other. Social media users questioned: "Wasn't there any agreement even within a family? Is the political divide in Iran really that wide and deep?"
Esmaili, 49, is widely considered as the candidate fielded by a political group known as the Meghdad Circle, which has close ties with Raisi’s family. The group is led by Raisi’s son-in-law Meghdad Nili, and his very influential brother Meysam Nili, who is currently an adviser to the Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister.
The Nili brothers were among ardent supporters of the populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 and 2009 elections but have since joined forces with the ultra-hardline Paydari Party, partly made up of former Ahmadinejad officials and supporters.
On Friday, the late President’s family hosted a religious event at a shrine in northern Tehran “with the presence” of Esmaili. Posting an image of the invitation poster, the prominent reformist commentator Abbas Abdi contended in a tweet that this could be taken as a signal of Esmaili’s endorsement by the family.
Esmaili, who is known for his rigidity in cultural matters such as cinema and theater, publishing and hijab, was promoted from obscurity to a ministerial position by Raisi after leading his campaign in 2021.
In 2016 Esmaili was sentenced to five years in prison for receiving bribes during his tenure as deputy governor of Esfahan Province as well 74 lashes and a three-year ban on government service.
Opponents and rivals say his appeal to then Chief Justice Sadegh Amoli-Larijani to order the case to be reviewed by the Supreme Court was declined. Ebrahim Raisi who was appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as Chief Justice in 2019, however, ordered the review which led to Esmaili’s acquittal. There are also claims that there are still some open cases against him.
“Presenting Esmaili as the symbol of Raisi’s government, with such a tarnished record, is a mockery of battle against corruption,” Abdolreza Davari, a former Ahmadinejad confidante, tweeted after the announcement of Esmaili’s candidacy last week.
Political opponents including his hardline rivals say he lacks the experience required for qualification as a presidential candidate compared to most other candidates who are current or former lawmakers or top former officials.
Photo attached to email - Esmaili was accompanied by Executive Vice-President Mohsen Mansouri at the time of his registration
Rumors had been in circulation in Iranian political circles since Wednesday that Esmaili and Mohsen Mansouri, executive vice-president in Raisi’s cabinet, had pressured cabinet officials to sign a letter to the Guardian Council to endorse Esmaili as a “notable government or religious figure”, as the Constitution requires from candidates, to prevent him from being disqualified by the election watchdog.
A leaked letter an image of which is widely circulating on social media indicates that at least sixteen cabinet ministers and officials had signed what they call “a testimony”. The authenticity of the letter was confirmed by the signatories’ condemnation of its revelation and threats of legal prosecution of those behind the leak.
The endorsement letter will put the election watchdog in a very difficult position as Esmaili’s approval, despite his lack of considerable executive experience and given his corruption record, can be interpreted as submission to pressure from the government.
Besides Executive Deputy Mansouri, Government Spokesman Ali Bahadori-Jahromi, Chief of the State Administrative Organization Meysam Lotfi, Vice-President in Women’s Affairs Ensieh Khazali, Minister of Oil Javad Owji, Minister of Communications Isa Zare’pour, Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani, the signatures of nine others are included in the hand-written letter.
Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, the other four ministers who registered to vote as well as Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi and Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib whose ministries are directly involved in the elections, Minister of Defense Mohammadreza Ashtiani who is banned by law from interfering in politics, and Minister of Cultural Heritage Ezzatollah Zarghami have not signed Esmaili’s endorsement letter.
At 55, the anti-American ideologue and self-proclaimed revolutionary is seen by many as a potential replica of Ebrahim Raisi’s government.
The state-monitored Rouydad24 news outlet suggests that while his path to victory is complex, certain elements within Iran's political landscape could favor his potential to win the presidency.
Jalili, an ultraconservative close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, belongs to the Principalist faction in Iranian politics, which emphasizes the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Having run as a presidential candidate in the past, one of Jalili's official campaign slogans was “Great Jihad for Iran’s Leap Forward.”
He has held significant diplomatic and security roles within the Iranian government, serving as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013 and currently as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.
Khamenei, who many experts assert virtually selected Raisi in 2021 despite the facade of elections, has maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili for many years.
Pointing to his inflexibility as Iran’s nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013, Rouydad24 notes that Jalili’s resistance to making concessions and his rigid approach resulted in multiple UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. These resulted in international economic sanctions that began to unravel the relative stability of Iran's oil-dependent economy.
During his tenure as deputy foreign minister, several European diplomats described Jalili to Reuters as someone who strongly and unwaveringly expressed his views. One diplomat even remarked that Jalili "specialized in monologue" rather than engaging in debate.
His approach often frustrated diplomats, with then-Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns recounting an instance where Jalili engaged in nearly 40 minutes of philosophical discourse during a meeting, avoiding direct answers and complicating the negotiation process.
Yet, this firm stance on nuclear negotiations has shaped the perception of him as a figure who does not easily bend to Western pressures. It’s likely that certain factions, particularly hardline and conservative groups, may support him for his ideological purity and rigid approach to negotiations.
Rouydad24’s analysis of Jalili suggests that his resistance amid nuclear talks may have been part of a broader strategy by the regime to develop Iran's nuclear capabilities – while buying time.
Be that as it may, Jalili’s diplomatic style led some experts to conclude that he would not be a suitable candidate, if the regime wants to advance the state of its current foreign policy and improve relations with the West.
His main rival for the presidency may be Ali Larijani, a conservative and former parliamentary speaker. Some say the stage is set for a diplomatic dichotomy reminiscent of the 2013 election, where their contrasting approaches were already evident.
In 2022, according to some accounts, Jalili confronted Larijani over nuclear negotiations during a special meeting of the Expediency Council. Jalili reportedly proposed that Iran withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a suggestion opposed by Larijani and others.
Rouydad24 analysis points out that in Iran's foreign policy, the true power lies with higher-level authorities who make the final decisions. This could be a reference to the Supreme Leader. The President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs act as executors of these decisions. Despite this clear hierarchy, different administrations have managed to influence the decision-making process.
It’s unclear whether Jalili, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war and former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, would shift his stance on reaching a truce with Western powers.
Known for his strong “nationalistic” views and deep belief in the Islamic Republic’s moral and strategic success against perceived American aggression, Jalili has always taken a hardline approach. His track record suggests that as President, he would continue to emphasize resistance and minimal concessions, casting doubt on any potential move towards diplomatic compromise with the West.
It’s more likely that Khamenei will prefer to maintain the status quo, positioning Jalili as a convenient successor to Raisi.