US Hints at Backing IAEA Resolution Censuring Iran

Previous administrations, including those of Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, have achieved some advancements in foreign policy, suggesting a slight potential for change in this area.

During Rouhani's tenure, Supreme Leader Khamenei demonstrated flexibility by agreeing to the JCPOA. Similarly, during Khatami’s era (1997-2005), his de-escalation policy resulted in a reduction of the regime's terror activities in Europe, a move that Khamenei did not oppose.

Although elections in Iran are widely known to be engineered, some still speculate whether the next presidential administration might create an opportunity for change in foreign policy and revitalize the stagnant nuclear negotiations.

Several candidates who have registered for the election have addressed this issue, presenting foreign policy stances that differ somewhat from those of President Raisi and his hard-line Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who also died in the May 19 helicopter crash.

Ali Larijani, a close associate of Rouhani's previous administration and the Parliamentary Speaker who approved the JCPOA in just 20 minutes, has expressed the need for a shift in Iran's foreign policy direction. Should he be able to pass the Guardian Council's “filtering process”, he may be able to expedite negotiations and reduce tensions between the Biden administration and Tehran.

When Larijani registered for the presidential election, he stated that "to cross the obstacles, we have to rise above the outdated methods." Kayhan, the most hardline newspaper in Tehran, interpreted this as a critique of the Raisi administration's foreign policy. In response, Kayhan criticized the JCPOA and the influence of the US and UK, calling the agreement and the process of aligning with it "the height of humiliation; the lowest height." While Larijani was advocating for a new approach to foreign policy, Kayhan defended the current administration's hardline stance and dismissed any return to the JCPOA as degrading.

The other candidate in the upcoming election, Saeed Jalili, has previously confronted Ali Larijani over nuclear negotiations. Unofficial reports from a 2022 special meeting of the Expediency Council, which have not been denied, indicate that Jalili proposed Iran's withdrawal from the NPT. This proposal was opposed by Ali Larijani, Sadegh Larijani, and Ali Shamkhani.

Recently, nuclear negotiations have reportedly been entrusted to Ali Shamkhani, based on unofficial reports that have not been refuted. This would suggest that Saeed Jalili is not a suitable candidate to advance the state of Iran’s current foreign policy.

Should Ali Khamenei seek to continue negotiations with the 5+1, albeit not in the same manner as Saeed Jalili during his tenure as Secretary of the National Security Council, it could enhance the likelihood of Ali Larijani's qualification being confirmed by the Guardian Council. This development could also affect the council's credibility, considering its prior rejection of Larijani's candidacy in 2021. Such scenarios underscore the intricate interplay between foreign policy and domestic politics.

Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also registered to run again. Given his prior disqualifications, however, it is likely that the Guardian Council will disqualify him once more – rendering any shifts in his previous stances less impactful. Historically, Ahmadinejad opposed negotiations aimed at a nuclear deal with the United States, which led to his exclusion from discussions held by Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, with American officials in Oman in 2012.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who registered as a presidential candidate shortly after assuming the position of Speaker of the Parliament, has made numerous statements about the nuclear negotiations and the JCPOA that are inconsistent and unclear. Therefore, it is unlikely that his administration would bring about significant changes in Iran's nuclear policy.

For instance, After the Majles' general approval of the "Strategic Action to Cancel Sanctions and Protect the Interests of the Iranian Nation" Act, he stated, "The parliament gave this message to the enemies of Islamic Iran that the one-sided game is over.” However, he later changed his position, saying, "Every fair person considers the success of the diplomatic system as the basis of the country's pride," following the approval of the JCPOA.

When Es'haq Jahangiri registered as a presidential candidate, he promised to lift the sanctions on Iran. Achieving that goal, however, would require accelerating nuclear negotiations.

Jahangiri's preferred policy approach was similar to that of former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and President Rouhani during the first and second years of Biden's presidency, which aimed at engaging in diplomatic efforts to ease sanctions. Despite their efforts, this approach faced strong opposition from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and ultimately did not succeed in lifting the sanctions or achieving significant results.

Regarding Iran’s now-deceased President Ebrahim Raisi, the Supreme Leader’s decision in 2021 was straightforward: Raisi was a loyal follower whose allegiance was unquestioned. That confidence led to the ultimate disqualification of several other presidential candidates, ensuring Raisi's selection.

In the current political landscape, Khamenei confronts a more intricate scenario in selecting the next suitable president. He can no longer simply support a single, loyal candidate without risking significant pushback or future complications.

Reports in Iranian media emphasized that discussions were about the war in Gaza and “putting an end to Israeli crimes.”

Bagheri-Kani travelled to Syria after meetings in Beirut on Monday, his first trip abroad since becoming Iran's acting top diplomat following the deaths of his predecessor and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.

He also met Palestinian factions at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, as his predecessor had. There are no details about what was discussed in the meeting. Iran backs Palestinian armed groups including Hamas, which launched the October 7 attack on Israeli territory that triggered the Gaza conflict. The Iranian government immediately launched celebration on October 7 and has vowed to continue providing support to Hamas.

At a joint press conference alongside Mekdad, Bagheri-Kani said the pair had discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the delivery of humanitarian aid without conditions. Iranian media said that the chief diplomat also emphasized the importance of strengthening the “strategic relations” between the two countries.

Syria’s Mekdad rejected reports about problems in the bilateral relations, calling such statements “Claims, delusions, or the wishes of some people.”

Bagheri-Kani was then received by Assad on Tuesday afternoon to discuss bilateral ties between the two close allies and "developments in the occupied Palestinian territories", according to Assad's office.

One day before Bagher-Kani’s visit to Damascus, Iranian government media reported that a Revolutionary Guard "advisor", Saeed (Saeid) Abyar was killed in an Israeli air strike near Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria early Monday.

At least since 2017, Israel has regularly bombed Iran-related targets in Syria to prevent weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the expansion of Iranian bases in Syria.

A devastating air strike on April 1 flattened a building in the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, where two senior Revolutionary Guard generals and five other officers died. Reportedly, these individuals were involved in operations aimed at intensifying attacks on Israel. This led to a massive Iranian missile and drone retaliatory attack against Israel on April 13, which inflicted minimal damage. Most projectiles were shot down.

In his day-long visit to Beirut, Bagheri-Kani met his Lebanese counterpart, other Lebanese officials and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of powerful armed group Hezbollah which is the spearhead of Iran's network in the region.

Assad met Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on May 30 to offer condolences for the death of Raisi.

“Even though the approval of those qualified has not yet been announced, it appears to be the first time since 1981 that clerics have entirely withdrawn from this area,” Abdi wrote on X on Tuesday.

The political analyst surmised that the reason might be that the clerics “are not hopeful of being voted president” but nevertheless “hold crucial positions” in the state and five of eight former presidents of Iran were clerics.

A total of 80 candidates have allegedly registered for the presidential elections following President Ebrahim Raisi's unexpected death in a helicopter crash last month. While among them are a few clerics, namely Mostafa Pourmohammadi, former interior minister and justice minister in two different administrations, Ahmad Akbari, former MP, and Mohammad Reza Mirtajodini, former vice president to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, none are seen as the main competitors for the presidential role.

According to KhabarOnline, more than 70% of the registered candidates are current or former lawmakers.

After a week, the Guardian Council will announce the approved candidates, with the election scheduled for June 28. Candidates who have been approved will have the opportunity to campaign in the two weeks before the election. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, a run-off election will be held on July 5.

Some of the most notable conservative candidates are hardline politician Saeid Jalili, conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and the more "moderate" conservative Ali Larijani.

On the reformist and moderate side, Es’haq Jahangiri, former Vice President in Hassan Rouhani's administration, and Abdolnasser Hemmati, a former Central Bank of Iran governor, are among the leading contenders.

Death threats have been sent to the personal phones of Israeli reporters from Haaretz and Channel 13, accusing them of ‘collaborating with the enemy’.

Israel’s most left-wing newspaper, Haaretz, claims one of its reporters received a death threat on a call last week from a number registered abroad from a person speaking poor English.

In a bid to sow internal chaos amid the war in Gaza which has seen nationwide calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu and a ceasefire to secure the release of hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas, digital surveillance firm Active Info, which has been monitoring the group for the past year, claims the sophisticated network also includes an account impersonating the controversial Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The influence network includes a Twitter account called Heroes of Israel, allegedly aligned with the campaign for a ceasefire and freeing of the hostages in Gaza. Hamas invaded Israel on October 7 killing 1,200 mostly civilians in a single day, taking 250 more hostage. Over 120 still remain inside the strip, several of whom are known to have been killed in captivity. As the war in Gaza rages on, the families of the hostages are desperate for a ceasefire to secure their release while the government has vowed there is no ceasefire until the elimination of the terror group.

The newspaper was contacted by the owner of the account who offered exclusive videos of the anti-government protests. When the reporter asked the source to identify themselves, they claimed to be a woman called Caroline Smart from the Netherlands who was unable to be in Israel herself due to the war.

Offering the reporter money to publish the pictures being offered "in order to help the campaign to free the hostages”, she offered to help install digital wallet software on his mobile device to make the payment in digital currency, a tool seen in previous cyber espionage campaigns by Iran.

When reporter Bar Peleg checked the Dutch number on WhatsApp he discovered the profile picture was stolen from the internet. When confronted, ’Caroline’ accused him of being “an Iranian spy”. The conversation was then manipulated, screenshot and sent to a pro-Israel page called Stand With Israel to insinuate the reporter was working with malign foreign influences or was aligned with the far right.

Just last week, Facebook's parent company reported that Iran was behind an influence operation exposed by Haaretz last year in coordination with researchers at Fake Reporter. It exposed a network with a plethora of fake accounts from gay representation to religious and political allegiances as the group delved into the multifaceted fabric of Israeli society.

Active Info claims the network has been operating on X for several months. Executed seamlessly, the fake Ben-Gvir account often echoes the real minister.

Last week other journalists from Channel 13 television news received threatening phone calls from foreigner numbers. "I know you up close, soon I will kill you and your family," said one with a Persian accent in a nighttime call to a reporter. Another reporter got one in the same Persian accent from a US phone number, saying "Leave Israel quickly, get it? You get it? If you don't, we'll kill you and your family.”

Defense sector retirees, public figures and even families of Israelis held by Hamas in Gaza and Knesset lawmakers have also recently received threatening letters and packages.

Iran began using the concept of foreign influence networks around two years ago to make connections with Israelis in an attempt to dupe them into acting as unwitting spies. They infiltrated the WhatsApp groups of political activists and convinced some to photograph the homes of top security officials, to print protest signs created by the Iranians on the hostages and even join fictitious demonstrations near the homes of hostage families.

In many cases, honey traps have also been used over the last two years. Iran International knows of several cases in which Israeli men were contacted on social media by figures posing as beautiful women asking them to meet in the likes of Turkey and Dubai. Though Israelis are trained in the army to recognize such fishing attempts, the intervention of intelligence agencies has been required in some cases.

"We have been aware of the practice of foreign influence networks asking Israelis for photos or videos since 2020," Active Info told Haaretz. "The goal is to give the foreign accounts local credibility, as if they were really involved in the protest movement. It's really a school of influence, creating fake conflicts between the right and the left, who argue with each other and even accuse each other of not being real."

The practice is not confined to Iran’s archenemy Israel. Dissident journalists abroad have also been the target of Iran’s spy-ops with death threats levied against Iran International reporters.

Just days ago, UN experts warned of transnational violence, threats, and intimidation by Iranian authorities and their proxies targeting Iran International and its journalists.

“We are deeply alarmed that death threats and intimidation against Iran International staff escalated into the violent stabbing of journalist Pouria Zeraati outside his home in London on 29 March 2024,” the experts said of the attack which sent shockwaves through the Iranian community.

Last year, the threats against Iran International staff became so severe that British security services MI5 said they could no longer protect the team, leading to a temporary relocation to Washington while the London offices were secured. MI5 and the police revealed they had foiled over 15 pilots on UK soil since the start of 2022 targeting “enemies of the regime”.

Despite local media attributing his absence to a back condition, Rouhani’s selective appearances and recent criticisms of the government suggest another story. Last month, Rouhani, president from 2013-2021, openly criticized the Guardian Council. Appointed by Supreme Leader Khamenei, he accused the body of undermining democratic principles by disqualifying candidates with divergent political views after being barred from the March 1 Assembly of Experts elections.

Rouhani was present only at the memorial service for the late President Ebrahim Raisi, attended by the Supreme Leader, after his sudden death last month. However, his absence from other significant events, including the anniversary of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death, a pivotal occasion for loyalists, has not gone unnoticed.

Rouhani has also recently opposed the reinstatement of morality police under a new crackdown plan on hijab regulations which has seen mass arrests of women for refusing the compulsory hijab, with state-sanctioned violence once more on the streets of Iran.