Iran’s Raisi Axed as Successor to Khamenei Months Before Death

The election occurred during the inaugural ceremony of the assembly's sixth term, attended by 83 members, 55 of whom voted for Kermani, signaling a clear continuity of hardline governance.

Known for his role as Tehran’s Friday Prayer Ephemeral Imam and former secretary-general of the Combatant Clergy Association, he succeeds Ahmad Jannati, a centenarian cleric.

The election for the body which appoints the supreme leader comes at a critical juncture as 84-year-old Ali Khamenei's health prompts speculations about his succession.

With the sudden death of Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday, the role of the Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, gains critical importance as Raisi was viewed by many as a likely successor.

However, the integrity of the electoral process is under scrutiny due to recent electoral manipulations that saw a sharp reduction in candidate eligibility.

In a move that has raised eyebrows internationally, key political figures with potentially sensitive insider information were barred from running. Former President Hassan Rouhani and three former intelligence ministers, Ali Fallahian, Haider Moslehi, and Mahmoud Alavi were disqualified.

Such exclusions by the Guardian Council, which also disqualified 366 out of 510 clerical candidates, have sparked accusations of engineered election outcomes aimed at ensuring a hardliner succession that could further tighten the ideological grip on Iran.

Critics argue that such actions depict a regime fearful of any potential dissent or deviation from the supreme doctrinal line, especially at a time when public discontent is simmering over the economic crisis and brutal social restrictions.

In a brief statement delivered by the State Department’s spokesman Matthew Miller Monday afternoon, the US government expressed “official condolences” for Raisi’s death alongside his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on Sunday, was all but crowned President in an unfair and unfree election three years ago. Before that, he spent the entirety of his political life in the Islamic Republic’s judiciary, starting as a local prosecutor and making his way up to the top with absolute loyalty to the regime –and crucially, signing off thousands of summary executions in 1988.

Following his death –confirmed officially Monday– many Iranians let out their contentment despite threats of arrest and punishment by the authorities. The Biden administration, however, chose to go down the “diplomatic” path, while acknowledging that Raisi was not just any President.

“No question this was a man who had a lot of blood on his hands,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday afternoon. “That said, as we would in any other case, we certainly regret in general the loss of life, and offered official condolences as appropriate.”

The “appropriate” measure angered US lawmakers and Iranian-American activists.

“I think it is disappointing for the Biden administration expressing condolences for the man who’s known as the Butcher of Tehran,” Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) told Fox News. “The people of Iran are probably pretty pleased that the Butcher of Tehran is no longer there to torment them.”

Senator Cotton’s description seems to be accurate, as far as it can be gauged from Iranians’ expressions of jubilation in public. The US condolences, therefore, was seen as a blow by many activists, and yet another sign that the Biden administration did not care enough about their wishes and desires. This was accentuated by the images from the UN Security Council, where representatives, including the US deputy ambassador, stood in silence for a minute to mark Raisi’s death.

“When I saw one minute of silence at the United Nations… it was a slap on the face of Iranian women who got killed simply for showing their hair,” Iranian-American activist Masih Alinejad told ABC News. “It’s a slap on the face of men getting executed simply for protesting.”

The US government and the UN Security Council were not the only major institutions to draw harsh criticism for their diplomatic approach. The EU Commission and NATO, among others, were also lambasted when their top officials or spokespeople expressed sympathy with “the people of Iran,” misjudging –if not ignoring– the public mood in the country.

“I am flabbergasted by this tweet,” former NATO Assistant Secretary General Marshall S. Billingslea posted on X, quoting the NATO spokeswoman's post offering condolences for the death of Iran’s president and foreign minister. “This is completely inappropriate on so many levels,” Billingslea wrote.

The controversy is likely to continue at least until Wednesday when the official ceremony and funeral is planned to be held in Iran. Speculations have already started about foreign representatives that may attend. So much so that reporters asked Kirby about the US position and the possibility of the Biden administration sending a “delegation” to the ceremony.

“I don’t have anything on a delegation for a funeral to speak to today,” Kirby said, deciding not to offer a clear response, even though any US representation in an Iranian official ceremony seems highly unlikely.

Hengaw Human Rights Organization, a Kurdish advocacy group, has urged other human rights organizations and civil society groups in Iran to persist in "registering and documenting the various aspects of the crimes of the Islamic Republic” including Raisi, dubbed The Butcher of Tehran.

In 1984, at the age of 25, Raisi became the deputy head of the Revolutionary Court. By 1988, serving as the deputy prosecutor of Tehran, he was a member of the "Death Committee," which was responsible for the mass execution of thousands of dissidents between August and September of that year.

Since the uprising of 2022, over 500 protesters were murdered under his watch and over 800 more executed last year alone in a record wave of killings.

Echoing Hengaw’s sentiments, the Coordinating Council of Iranian Teacher Trade Associations also commented on Raisi's death, expressing hope that those responsible for child killings, particularly in Iran, would "face the consequences of their actions in a public and fair trial."

The council criticized Raisi's tenure as head of state, highlighting severe setbacks in the education sector and severe human rights abuses under his rule.

In a post on X on Monday, Pence wrote, “Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is dead and the world is a safer place. Raisi was responsible for the murder of thousands of Iranian political prisoners he ordered executed in 1988, 1,500 Iranians slaughtered in the 2019 protests and the years of terrorist violence sown by Iran across the region that claimed American lives.”

The US government, NATO, the UN Security Council and some European entities and politicians expressed condolences to the Iranian people for Raisi death in a helicopter crash on Sunday, while many Iranians were celebrating the demise of a man they call “The Butcher of Tehran.” Raisi was a member of a “Death Committee” in 1988 that oversaw the summary executions of thousands of political prisoners serving prison terms.

Other Western politicians condemned the expression of sympathy highlighting Raisi life-long role in persecuting dissidents and involvement in thousands of executions.

Pence in his message also said, “My hope and prayer is that Raisi’s death will give the people of Iran a chance to claim their birthright of freedom and end Iran’s long reign of terror.”

Among them were Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Backlash, however, erupted over the reactions from several EU officials and a NATO spokesperson.

On Monday, NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said that the Western defense alliance sends its "condolences to the people of Iran for the death of President Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and others who perished in the helicopter crash."

Iranians, who have widely celebrated the deaths of the senior government officials, swiftly reacted with outrage to the statements of condolence.

“I am flabbergasted by this tweet. This is completely inappropriate on so many levels.,” former NATO Assistant Secretary General Marshall S. Billingslea said on X.

In their responses, Iranians have been quick to highlight Raisi’s role in the 1988 massacre of thousands of political prisoners, the regime’s backing of terror groups – and the use of Shahed drones to terrorize Ukrainian civilians.

Outrage from Iranians only intensified when the President of the EU Council and the EU’s top diplomat both tweeted their “condolences.”

“The EU expresses its sincere condolences for the death of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian, as well as other members of their delegation and crew in a helicopter accident. Our thoughts go to the families,” EU Council President Charles Michel wrote.

A statement posted by the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell reads: “The EU expresses its sympathies to the families of all the victims and to the Iranian citizens affected.”

MEPs and European MPs have since weighed in, stating their opposition to the comments made by the EU’s leadership.

Conservative UK parliamentarian Alicia Kearns said she found herself “bemused” by the expression of condolences for “a President whose regime has committed femicide” and “transnational repression and attempted assassinations across Europe.”

“It is an absolute mystery to me how the EU Commission can show #EU solidarity with Iran. What a miserable hashtag, what a mockery of the brave fighters for human rights in Iran. I expect an explanation for this,” German politician and defense veteran Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann wrote.

Before news of Raisi’s death was confirmed, controversy first erupted when the European commissioner for crisis management posted on X, confirming the provision of satellite assistance to Iranian rescuers with and ending his post with “#EUSolidarity.”

According to Politico, a Commission official said that while the tweet was consistent with the EU’s guidelines on humanitarian aid, they personally found the expression of solidarity “odd.”

In response to the condemnation, Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari wrote: “Neither the EU Civil Protection Mechanism nor the Copernicus satellite system are driven by political considerations. Any country can request assistance of humanitarian or civilian nature through these channels, and the [Commission] does its best to help.”

Flemish MEP Assita Kanko, with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformers group said she was “shocked” that Lenarčič posted a message on behalf of the EU proposing to activate EU solidarity to save the Iranian president.

“The people in Iran are literally and figuratively strangled by the regime… European solidarity? With whom. And with whose money?,” she wrote.