IRGC Issues New Threat Against Israel For Attack On Consulate

Jaish al-Adl armed militants attacked several police and military posts in two cities in Sistan-Baluchestan province, commencing on Thursday night and extending until Friday afternoon. The skirmish resulted in the loss of at least 16 government troops.

Jaish al-Adl, labeled as a "terrorist" organization by Iran, Pakistan, and the United States, has been involved in numerous extensive operations in Iran's southeastern region. The group officially claimed responsibility for the recent attack in a statement.

“Given the repeated violent and terrorist acts of the Jaish al-Adl terrorist group, which is sponsored by certain foreign countries, against innocent Iranian civilians and officials, the Islamic Republic of Iran asks the Security Council to strongly condemn these heinous terrorist acts and take appropriate measures in line with its commitments concerning fight against all forms and manifestations of terror, as shown by the Security Council in the press release dated December 16, 2023 (SC/15534),” Amir Saeid Iravani added.

Despite the severity of the incident, international reactions have been limited. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the attack in Chabahar and Rask, expressing condolences to the victims' families.

The letter explicitly mentioned that Jaish al-Adl enjoys support from some foreign countries, although no specific nation was identified.

The recent escalation comes in the wake of heightened tensions in mid-January, triggered by a missile strike from the Revolutionary Guards on Jaish al-Adl positions within Pakistani territory. The incident strained relations between Iran and Pakistan, leading to retaliatory actions from Islamabad within Iranian borders. However, both countries have since declared a resolution to the tensions.

Saeed Madani, a sociologist, university professor, and political activist associated with the national-religious movement, received a nine-year prison sentence in November 2022 on charges such as "forming and managing opposition groups, conspiring against national security, and propagating against the regime." He had voiced support for anti-government protests at the time. Following this, he was transferred from Evin Prison to Damavand Prison on Tuesday.

“Khamenei, the tyrannical and ruthless dictator of Iran, and his oppressive supporters are in constant fear of public awareness and the spread of public knowledge; and for this reason, they are hostile to Madani and others like him and make them the target of their hatred and revenge,” Ghadiani said in a letter released on Thursday. In recent years, the former revolutionary and supporter of the Islamic Republic has turned into a staunch critic of Khamenei’s regime.

According to the former political prisoner, the regime has intensified its repressive measures against protesters and dissenters following the massive boycott of Iran’s recent elections in March that he and others have dubbed as Khamenei’s “disastrous fiasco.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader time and again called on Iranians to vote in parliamentary and the Assembly of Experts elections held on March 1. However, according to official statistics, only around 40% of the eligible voters participated in the elections, the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. Many opposition activists contend that the actual turnout was even lower than the one announced by the government.

Calling the regime’s rising pressure on Madani “futile,” Ghadiani stressed that the sociologist and other political prisoners “will continue their struggle against tyranny under any circumstances and will have even greater impact.”

Further in his letter, the political dissident rejected Khameni’s reign over Iran as “illegal, illegitimate and usurping,” warning that the regime’s oppressions will continue as long as he is in power. At the end of his letter, Ghadiani expressed hope that Iranians would be able to replace the corrupt regime of the Islamic Republic with a secular democratic republic based on human rights.

On Wednesday, several high profile political prisoners voiced condemnation over the recent sentencing of Madani to exile, describing the action as “a desperate attempt to quell dissent.” Among the signatories were Golrokh Iraee, Alireza Eradati, Rasoul Bodaghi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mahvash Sabet.

Ghadiani, 80, has been one of the most vocal and staunch opponents of Iran’s Supreme Leader over the past years. He belonged to a leftist, revolutionary group that was supporting the Islamic Republic and Khamenei until the disputed presidential election of 2009, when the Supreme Leader backed the questionable re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ghadiani, with many others, protested the results and was jailed to become an opposition figure.

Receiving a 10-month jail sentence in July 2023, he said he is ready to go to prison “in Ali Khamenei’s dictatorial regime.” However, he refused to attend the court session and the authorities have refrained from implementing the verdict.

The plunge, the highest ever exchange rate recorded for the American currency in Iran, marks a nearly 30 percent decline for the rial since early January.

The recent Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of two high-ranking IRGC commanders and five officers, has further escalated tensions. The Iranian regime has vowed retaliation in response to the attack.

Since the 1979 revolution, the devaluation of the Iranian rial has been an ongoing trend, particularly escalating in 2018 after the US withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran's oil exports and banking sector.

The rial was valued at 70 rials per dollar in 1978. The devaluation has exacerbated inflationary pressures over the past five years, leading to millions of Iranians falling below the poverty line. While official government figures indicate an annual inflation rate of over 40 percent, many experts believe the actual rate to be higher.

Iranian authorities have often claimed that US and other sanctions have little impact on the nation's economy. However, as annual inflation hovers around 50 percent for five consecutive years, tens of million of people have lost their middle-class status and have to subsist with around $200 a month. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not allowed negotiations to limit Iran's nuclear program to move forward and Tehran has intensified its regional interventions contributing to high tensions.

While acknowledging that the attack on the consulate of the Islamic Republic in Damascus "will not remain unanswered," Bagheri emphasized a strategic approach, stating, "We have learned from Qasem Soleimani that we determine the time and type of operation."

Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force, was killed in a US drone strike in January 2020.

Several senior clerics echoed the same sentiments, warning against hasty decisions in seeking revenge for the attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, which resulted in deaths of seven Revolutionary Guards.

The unified stance reflects directives from a central authority controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Analysts believe that Iran's longstanding strategy of refraining from direct engagement with Israel will continue.

While Tehran has avoided direct confrontation with Israel, it has supported attacks by proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Veteran Israeli experts suggest that Iran is unlikely to retaliate directly against Israel, opting instead for selective tactical attacks through proxies. Diplomats and analysts posit that Iran's leadership, cautious of risking its hold on power, prefers to avoid all-out conflict with Israel or the US, maintaining a strategic balance while pursuing its interests through indirect means.

In an article released on Saturday, the newspaper also blamed the high casualties among Syria-based IRGC forces in recent months on "the betrayal of infiltrators."

"Have Iranian officials asked themselves why Russia, which controls Syria's airspace, does not prevent the Zionist regime's crimes against Iranian forces with its advanced air defense systems? Why don't such incidents happen to Russian troops stationed in Syria?" Jomhouri-e Eslami (Islamic Republic) asked.

The daily further urged the Iranian government to review its security protocols in Syria and adopt preventive measures instead of issuing threats after the deadly assaults.

The Financial Times reported Thursday that suspected Israeli strikes have claimed the lives of 18 IRGC commanders and advisers since the Gaza war broke out on October 7. According to the report, all of the slain IRGC forces were targeted in Syria, with 16 in Damascus, one in Deir ez-Zor, and one in Baniyas.

Israel's Monday attacks against Iran's consulate building in Damascus have been the deadliest since the inception of the ongoing conflict in the region, killing seven IRGC forces, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force (IRGC-QF) in Lebanon and Syria.

The recent attacks have sparked many reactions in Iran, where government officials have time and again vowed revenge against Israel but have fallen short of making a decisive move so far. On the other hand, public opinion, particularly among social media users, points to the regime's inability to retaliate against alleged Israeli strikes, further asserting that the power claimed and vaunted by Iranian officials is only employed to suppress civilian protesters inside the country.