Iran-Backed Houthis Escalate Red Sea Attacks Despite US Strikes

Speaking at the 17th Annual Conference of the Iranian Political Science Association he said that, "We are facing a phenomenon called the increasing spread of hungry (poor) masses. You cannot tell a society where six deciles of it go to bed hungry that our governance is satisfactory."

He warned of the corrosive effects of despair and hopelessness which has broken down the country's social cohesion and caused a deepening of societal divisions.

He said the country's cultural institutions lack leadership which addresses the massive social change underway since the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom protests. "Iranian society is undergoing significant change, adhering to its previous policy decision-making system," he said. "A critical issue facing Iranian society is the absence of a desirable governance model, resulting in a cycle of flawed governance."

He stressed that elections within the flawed governance structure failed to bring about transformative change, just days after the March 1 elections which saw record low turnouts across the country.

Recent reports received by Iran International suggest a significant decline in purchasing power and the exclusion of essential food items from households' consumption baskets two weeks ahead of the Norouz (Nowruz) Iranian New Year. Items such as red meat, chicken, fish, rice, and dairy products are notably absent due to the currency's devaluation, exacerbating inflationary pressures.

The Iranian rial has depreciated by 20 percent since early January, contributing to soaring prices of imported staples like wheat, rice, and animal feed. Annual inflation has surged above 40 percent since 2019, precipitating a decline in real incomes and plunging millions into poverty amid restrictive economic policies and international sanctions.

Amnesty International Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa, Diana Eltahawy, said, "Iran’s authorities are terrorizing women and girls by subjecting them to constant surveillance and policing, disrupting their daily lives and causing them immense mental distress. Their draconian tactics span from stopping women drivers on the road…to imposing inhumane flogging and prison sentences."

According to testimonies collected by Amnesty International, tens of thousands of women have had their cars confiscated arbitrarily, while others have faced prosecution, flogging, imprisonment, fines, or forced attendance of "morality" classes for defying hijab laws.

Furthermore, unjust prosecutions and sentencing are rampant, with women and girls facing legal action for appearing without headscarves or wearing "inappropriate" hijab. Prosecution orders often mandate participation in morality classes or impose fines.

The aftermath of Mahsa Amini's death in police custody in September 2022 has posed significant challenges for the clerical regime in enforcing the mandatory Islamic dress code. The emergence of the 'Women, Life, Freedom' movement has emboldened tens of thousands of girls and women to discard their compulsory hijab. In spite of banning unveiled women from the likes of public places, workplaces and education, the rebellion has left the regime with an existential crisis on an epic scale.

The vessel identified as Barbados-flagged and US-owned, sustained damage in the incident. According to British security firm Ambrey, the vessel was hailed by an entity claiming to be the "Yemeni Navy," directing it to alter its course, believed to be the Iran-backed Houthi militia amid its blockade in the Red Sea. 

"Ambrey observed an Indian Navy military vessel drifting in the vicinity of the last known position of the affected vessel (...) Further reports stated that rescue and salvage operations were underway," it said, adding that some crew had been loaded into lifeboats.

The attack happened approximately 57 nautical miles southwest of Aden port in southern Yemen. The incident underscores the persistent threat posed by Houthi militants in the region, who have been implicated in recent drone and missile attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, and Gulf of Aden. Allegedly, the actions are in solidarity with Palestinians amid the conflict in Gaza.

In response to escalating tensions, multinational efforts led by US forces, in coordination with the United Kingdom Armed Forces and other allies, conducted strikes against 18 Houthi targets in Yemen controlled by Iranian-backed militants last month. The efforts aim to uphold regional stability and safeguard the interests of participating countries, partners, and allies.

The heightened security concerns in the Red Sea have prompted major shipping lines to reroute vessels away from the critical trade route, opting for longer voyages around Africa. However, this shift has resulted in increased expenses, sparking fears of global inflation amidst ongoing geopolitical unrest.

In a statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, the US emphasized the need for Iran to down-blend its entire 60-percent uranium stockpile and cease production of uranium enriched to 60 percent.

This call comes after the head of the UN nuclear watchdog informed the Board that his agency has lost crucial "continuity of knowledge" regarding Tehran’s activities.

While Iran has failed to cooperate with the IAEA on multiple issues since 2021 – recent points of friction between Tehran and the agency are piling up.

During the agency's regular meeting in Vienna, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi highlighted concerns, including the deactivation of surveillance devices, barring of senior inspectors, and refusal to disclose new nuclear facilities.

These actions have heightened fears of clandestine nuclear expansion.

Yet, Grossi maintained that he does not have any information that Iran is making a nuclear weapon.

"What I would say is that Iran is the only country that does not have a nuclear weapon that is enriching at 60% and is accumulating uranium enriched at 60%," Grossi said in the same breath.

US refuses to back censure resolution

While Wednesday's statement from the US called on the IAEA Board to be ready for further action if Iran's cooperation does not significantly improve, Iran avoided censure for its non-compliance.

Reports suggest that since President Joe Biden took office, the US advanced a censure resolution on Iran, on one occasion.

On the sidelines of the IAEA meeting, an EU diplomat told Iran International that there hasn't been any discussion about issuing a resolution against Iran for its non-compliance.

Andrea Stricker, Deputy Director of the FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, characterized this as policy paralysis, highlighting the lack of US leadership.

The nuclear expert from a Washington DC-based nonpartisan research institute points out that European leaders aim to retain the option of reimposing all UN sanctions if Iran reaches 90% enriched uranium, considered nuclear weapons-grade.

However, she says, by producing 60% highly enriched uranium, Iran has already completed most of the process to obtain weapons-grade uranium.

Therefore, the European red line is effectively meaningless, Stricker told Iran International.

Meanwhile, Director-General Grossi says there are no talks with Iran – and none are scheduled.

"I hope I will have an opportunity to talk to them in person, as soon as possible. I cannot go if they don't invite me. So whenever they feel that they are ready to talk to me, I will be more than happy to return," he said.

But, so far, Tehran has indicated that nuclear compliance will only come when the US lifts sanctions on the country.

Republican Senators push for action

Leading up to the IAEA meeting this week, several Republican Senators penned a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, urging for a comprehensive review of Iran’s nuclear program by the UN’s Security Council.

They emphasized the importance of US leadership in maintaining global non-proliferation standards, writing that the “stakes could not be higher”.

“The US must be active in deterring the Iranian regime’s rapid nuclear arms advancement under the Biden Administration,” Senator Rubio wrote on X (formerly known as Twitter).

Complicating matters further for the US and the West is the ongoing conflict in Gaza, sparked by an attack on Israel by Hamas, an Iranian proxy and designated terrorist organization.

According to the latest reports, Western leaders do not want to risk further diplomatic escalation with Tehran.

Iran could ‘contemplate nuclear breakout’

Stricker, along with other nuclear experts, advocates for the IAEA Board of Governors to enforce measures outlined in its statute, including sanctions or other punitive actions.

She points out that during the pre-nuclear deal era, multilateral pressure and sanctions effectively slowed Iran's advances.

Failure for Tehran to meet these demands for compliance, on a deadline, should then “result in referring Iran's case to the UN Security Council”.

But, Stricker does not foresee the West mounting massive international pressure on Iran – or levying a credible threat of military force in retaliation.

“I do not see that happening under Biden, and we should expect Tehran to try to reap the benefits of Biden's remaining time in office in case it faces a second Trump administration and the return of maximum economic pressure,” she said.

With that Stricker says, Tehran knows that next year could prove to be opportune for it to contemplate a nuclear breakout.

“The regime may decide that now is the time, and this is the weakest American leadership it can hope for, to secure its future hold on power with the ultimate deterrent,” she said.

Yahya Rahim-Safavi emphasized on Wednesday the importance of naval and aerospace forces of the Revolutionary Guards concentrating on the vital points, stating that future wars are likely to be sea-based and air-based.

Rahim-Safavi said, "We have no solution other than deepening the defense and security of the country. Our strategic defense depth is in the Mediterranean Sea, and we must increase our strategic depth by 5,000 kilometers."

The Red Sea has been effectively closed off by Iran-backed Houthi militants through a series of missile and drone strikes targeting commercial vessels. 

Despite their assertion of acting in solidarity with Palestinians and targeting ships associated with Israel, the US, or Britain, few shipping companies are willing to risk traversing the region.

Iran's clerical regime has long provided substantial support to the Houthis, including funding, arms, and training, enabling them to establish and maintain control over significant areas of Yemen. Despite mounting international pressure, Iran persists in its backing of the group.

In November, the Houthis initiated attacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea, concentrating British and US for supporting Israel’s right to defend itself in the wake of October 7.

The resulting disruptions to global maritime trade have compelled major shipping operators to divert their vessels, leading to increased shipping expenses and affecting consumer goods prices.