Iran's IRGC Chief Renews US Threats

The live broadcast of the parliamentary session was also unavailable on the official website due to the malfunctioning of the voting mechanism following Tuesday's cyber attack claimed by the hacktivist group Uprising till Overthrow, closely linked with the Albania-based opposition Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) organization.

It is the latest in a series of high level hacking incidents affecting the government and comes on the eve of the country's upcoming elections, scheduled for March 1st, which have witnessed extensive candidate disqualifications and experts expect turnout to be less than 15 percent, a record low for the regime.

Shahriar Heidari, a member of the National Security Commission of the Parliament, highlighted the vulnerability of the country's cyber security infrastructure, saying, "Given that some government systems have been hacked before, and now the parliament has been hacked, it indicates the weakness of the country's cyber security structure."

Leaked documents from the breach include sensitive materials concerning the Supreme National Security Council's strategies to evade sanctions and internal parliamentary documents, such as the list of MPs' salaries which revealed parliamentarians' salaries range from 1.7 to 2.7 billion rials, equivalent to $3200 to $5000.

Meanwhile, Iranian workers are set to receive a government approved average salary increase of 20 percent starting in March, amid an annual inflation rate of around 50 percent. The new minimum monthly wage has been set at 115 million Iranian rials or about 210 US dollars.

The governor of Bushehr, Ahmad Mohammadi-Zadeh, referring to the regime's armed forces, said "domestic experts are overseeing the construction of the two nuclear power plants, each with a capacity of 1080 megawatts of electricity production.”

Grossi’s comments came in response to statements made by Iran’s former nuclear energy organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi, who was also the country's foreign minister from 2010-2013.

In a televised interview when asked if Iran has achieved the capability of developing a nuclear bomb, avoiding a direct answer Salehi stated, "We have [crossed] all the thresholds of nuclear science and technology." He said Iran is “presenting a face which is not entirely transparent when it comes to its nuclear activities”.

Iran's nuclear program has long been a source of contention in the international community, with concerns about its potential military dimensions as it continues to enrich beyond international limits.

The IRGC's involvement in Iran's nuclear activities has been a subject of scrutiny and suspicion.

While the exact nature and extent of its involvement is not always clear due to the secretive nature of Iran's nuclear program, there have been allegations of the IRGC's involvement in nuclear research, procurement of technology, and possibly even aspects of weaponization.

Several nations including the UK, Australia and the US, have strong political lobbies calling for the designation of the IRGC as a terror group following its brutal suppression of protesters following the Women, Life, Freedom uprising of 2022, and its murder plots on foreign soil uncovered as far afield as Europe to South America.

Among these hardliners, there's notable concern regarding the prospect of Donald Trump making a political comeback. Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) shattered the hopes of both Iranian hardliners and moderates, who had envisioned reaping benefits from the nuclear deal with the West in exchange for curbing their nuclear ambitions, while expanding their conventional capabilities and regional influence.

Since then, although the Biden Administration has been too kind to Tehran and often turned a blind eye in the face of mischiefs by Tehran, politicians in Tehran still believe that Biden could have done more than giving billions of dollars to Iran in return for releasing US hostages and releasing Iran's frozen assets in South Korea, Iraq and elsewhere.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his hardline loyalists have little reason to be alarmed by the prospect of President Joe Biden taking tougher action, as they succeeded in convincing his administration to release billions of dollars. They have been led to believe that they can influence the current administration by occasional sabre rattling or by threatening a nuclear escalation, which would be stopped by more concessions from the United States.

Earlier in this week, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi implied that Iran has already surpassed the nuclear threshold. 

However, the Iranian Parliament's research center warned the country's top officials including Khamenei about the bleak economic implications of Trump's victory in US elections.

Meanwhile, after a eulogist harshly criticized Iran's moderates and particularly former President Hasan Rouhani for spending too much time and resources to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, reformist activist Reza Nasri reminded hardliners that if they had allowed the former government to revive the JCPOA during Biden’s presidency, most of its restrictions would have disappeared in due course.

Nasri further cautioned the ruling hardliners that within a year, Iran's nuclear dossier would be revisited at the UNSC, posing a challenging scenario should Donald Trump or Nikki Haley win the US presidential election. While Trump's foreign policy largely revolved around relations with Ukraine and Russia, Haley has consistently adopted a tough stance on Tehran and its leading clerical figures.

Highlighting the potential repercussions, Nasri warned that Iran's UNSC dossier could adversely impact three generations of Iranians.

Conversely, the Majles Research Center highlighted the concerning trend of Iran's diminishing foreign currency reserves over recent years, likening it to a form of economic disarmament. Warning of potential repercussions, the Center cautioned that a return of Trump to the White House could result in more sanctions, and this will be a shock to the financial markets in Iran. Furthermore, Trump has promised to make a deal with Russia and to focus on harnessing China. In this case, China is likely to reduce oil purchase from Iran and this will further shrink Iran's foreign currency reserve.

Furthermore, the Research Center pointed out another implication of Trump's potential return to the White House: challenges in Iran's economic partnership with Russia. Babak Negahdari, Chairman of the Majles Research Center, underscored the current decline in Iran's economy, evident from the situation of industries in the stock market, and emphasized the looming challenges ahead.

For instance, he highlighted a projected $3.7 billion deficit for importing essential commodities, which would require tapping into foreign currency reserves or the Central Bank. Negahdari warned of the likelihood of increased sanctions against Iran and the resultant shock to financial markets under a Trump presidency, suggesting that despite the Biden Administration's tenure, Iran's economic crisis may persist. He cited Iran's growing reliance on the UAE for marine logistics as a potential threat to food security and financial stability, indicating the pressing challenges facing Iran's economic landscape.

He said a lack of indigenous technological capability is lacking in the capital which has a huge housing shortfall.

"For us, industrialization means the ability to construct houses within a year, with a lifespan ranging from 40 to 80 years," stated Forouzandeh, Iran unable to do this alone.

Chinese financing has also played a role with oil barters enabling Iran to fund the projects.

Despite oil prices ranging between 75-82 dollars in recent months, Iran International reported in December that Tehran offers substantial discounts to China, pricing as low as $37 per barrel.

The admission comes amidst Tehran Municipality's efforts to address pressing urban challenges, including housing shortages and transportation congestion.

Mayor Alireza Zakani's recent visit to China resulted in several agreements with Chinese firms to undertake infrastructure projects in the Iranian capital, spanning construction and transportation sectors.

With a total debt exceeding $390 billion, as reported by The New York Times last year, the involvement of Chinese construction firms in Iran's housing sector poses the risk of potential bankruptcies post-project initiation, leading to a plethora of legal complications.

However, while Chinese involvement offers solutions to Iran's economic challenges, it also worsens the crisis for domestic construction firms, many of which have succumbed to bankruptcy amid soaring costs and dwindling demand in the housing sector

The Iranian Ministry of Petroleum attributed the explosions along gas pipelines in multiple regions of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Fars provinces to sabotage operations by “destructive elements and enemy conspiracies” aimed at disrupting gas supply to major provinces.

Sa'id Agheli, the director of Iran's Gas Network Operations Center, described the explosions as "terrorist sabotage acts." The explosions occurred around 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday, February 14th, in the Halavayi-Boroujen bottleneck in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province and the Tang-e Qaderabad area in Khorrambid, located in the Safashahr region of Fars province.

Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, reported early Thursday that the targeted pipeline is the main conduit for transporting natural gas from refineries in the Persian Gulf to major cities including Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad. These explosions resulted in the closure of roads in the surrounding areas for hours, forcing residents of neighboring villages to spend hours on the streets due to fear as large flames engulfed the surrounding areas. Reports indicate that the sound of explosions and the glow of flames were visible within a radius of 60 kilometers, leading to the gas supply being cut off to dozens of villages.

Alborz Gas Company announced a partial gas shutdown in industrial zones of the province neighboring the capital Tehran. In northeast, schools were closed on Thursday, with remote learning, and gas supply to industries and government buildings were suspended until further notice. In Zanjan province, gas supply to government facilities was cut off, and industrial gas consumption was restricted. Lorestān Gas Company declared limitations on gas consumption for all governmental facilities, executive agencies, and industries in the western province.

Esfahan’s (Isfahan) Provincial Crisis Management announced gas supply restrictions for major industries in the province on Thursday morning.

Hours before the explosions, a leaked document from a cyberattack on the parliament revealed that the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council had predicted such incidents in a letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi in November. The letter warned about gas shortages resulting from imbalance between production and consumption. He cited dangers such as cyber threats, labor strikes, and sabotage in the energy network as potential risks to energy security amid gas shortages in the winter.

Since mid-2020, there have been multiple acts of sabotage in Iran targeting nuclear, energy, military and industrial sites. The Iranian government has blamed Israel and, in some cases, armed opposition groups, but it is almost certain that sophisticated operations are conducted by state actors.

As acts of sabotage occurred regularly, Khamenei ordered closer coordination between a hodgepodge of intelligence and security outfits in June 2023.

Iran’s natural gas production gradually declines due to lack of investments and technology, even though the country has the second largest reserves in the world. Officials have said in the past that the sector needs an investment of at least $40 billion to install larger production platforms, with stronger pumps, in the Persian Gulf, where Iran shares a huge underwater gas field with Qatar.