Fierce Competition Continues Between Iran’s President And Speaker
President Ebrahim Raisi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf denied their differences during a meeting at the Iranian parliament earlier this week.
President Ebrahim Raisi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf denied their differences during a meeting at the Iranian parliament earlier this week.
Nonetheless, despite the denials, disputes between the media outlets affiliated with the two sides appear to be escalating.
But power struggles is not limited to the executive and legislative leaders. There were indications in the latest news conference of Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei on Thursday about possible differences between him and Raisi.
Speaking about a major financial corruption case, Ejei revealed that Raisi's statement about handing over nearly 60 government officials to the Judiciary for their involvement in the case was not true. Ejei made it clear that "The government has named no one for involvement in the case."
In another development, according to Khabar Online, while Raisi has spoken about coordination of efforts between the parliament and the government, Ghalibaf has expressed concern that a difference of tastes between the two are likely to turn into disputes."
The website wrote that when Ghalibaf and Raisi met on Tuesday morning, pro-Ghalibaf newspaper Sobh-e No's editorial against Raisi's performance had already been published. The editorial called Raisi's supporters "super revolutionaries" and pointed out that Raja News, a website maintained by a close relative of Raisi has been attacking Ghalibaf for a few days.
The pro-Ghalibaf daily further added that he and Ejei agree that the country's most important problems are about the economy. Consequently, the country needs legislations to prevent financial corruption cases in which government officials are regularly involved.
Nearly all fingers point at Raisi as the man responsible for the latest corruption case. Many have said that if the affair took place during the last two years of the Rouhani administration (2019-2021), Raisi should have prevented it as Judiciary Chief at the time. And if it took place during the past two years, then Raisi as president will be in a worse position as his share of the responsibility will be even bigger.
Government media outlets including Iran newspaper, the only mention Ejei and Ghalibaf in connection with the corruption case. They never say anything about Raisi, Khabar Online observed.
Media close to Ghalibaf, on the other hand, attack Raisi’s supporters in the ultraconservative Paydari party who constitute a powerful bloc in parliament, trying to increase their seats in the March elections.
However, rivalry between Ghalibaf and Raisi goes beyond the upcoming parliamentary election as both men know very well that Ghalibaf's main objective is to win the Presidential election in 2025. Ghalibaf is also aware that in any election in Iran he will have far more votes than Raisi. His calculation is based on the precedence left after the 2013 Presidential election when he was forced, by Khamenei’s men, to drop out of the race, to give Raisi a chance to win that election. Raisi, however, lost to relatively moderate Hassan Rouhani.
Meanwhile, Ghalibaf's supporters have accused the Raisi Administration of trying to intervene in the March election. To take revenge on Raisi, Ghalibaf’s men in parliament changed the Development Plan submitted by Raisi’s administration beyond recognition. Subsequently the president complained to Khamenei that what the parliament has approved cannot be implemented.
Despite all their differences, both Ghalibaf and Raisi told the press after their meeting that "We will not let others to take advantage of the difference in the two branches of the state. This will never happen!" As Khabar Online noted, regardless of what they say, it is difficult to believe pleasant words from any side. The two men's body language during the meeting, and the continuation and rather escalation of the war of words in their media outlets tell another story.
A report from ISNA news agency on Friday revealed that Iran stands as the world's fourth-largest consumer of gas in the world, surpassing even Canada, recognized as an industrialized and cold climate country.
Iran annually produces approximately 260 billion cubic meters of gas, with 18 billion cubic meters allocated for export and the remainder consumed domestically. Notably, Iran also experiences losses of 25 billion cubic meters during the production and transportation stages.
In comparison, Iran's gas consumption is five times higher than Turkey's and double that of Canada's, due to lack of energy diversity. For instance, Turkey and Canada generate 35 times and 30 times more solar and wind energy than Iran, respectively.
Moreover, Turkey and Canada outpace Iran by producing nine times and 53 times more electricity from hydroelectric power plants. In essence, Iran's energy landscape lacks diversity, with 68% of the country's energy consumption relying on gas, while this figure is 26% for Turkey and 31% for Canada.
Natural Gas Wastage in Iran
According to World Bank and the International Energy Agency, Iran flares 18 billion cubic meters of gas annually (bcm/yr) due to lack of gas collection equipment in oil fields. Additionally, there is 7 bcm/yr gas leakage in transmission and distribution network.
In simpler terms, Iran's gas losses during production and transmission alone equal half of Turkey's total gas consumption.
Moreover, Iran supplies 70 bcm/yr of gas to power plants, nearly 1.5 times Turkey's total gas consumption. The efficiency of Iran's thermal power plants is 33%, and a significant portion of the received fuel is wasted during the conversion to electricity. Furthermore, 13% of the country's electricity, equivalent to 49 terawatt-hours, is lost during the transmission and distribution stages, equal to half of Iran's household electricity consumption. This is also due to lack of investments in new equipment and technology.
The efficiency situation in the industrial, petrochemical and commercial sectors, which collectively consume around 110 bcm/yr of gas, is no better than that of the country's power plants.
In recent years, Iranian authorities have blamed the public for electricity and gas shortages, emphasizing the need to increase energy carrier prices. This is despite the residential sector in Iran accounting for only 27% of the country's electricity consumption (equivalent to 100 terawatt-hours) and 25% of its gas consumption (60 bcm).
Severe Gas Shortages
Iran faces severe gas shortages during winters as household gas consumption naturally increases significantly. Last year, Iran experienced a daily shortage of 250 mcm of gas, and this year, the imbalance is expected to reach 300 mcm/d.
With 33 trillion cubic meters, Iran has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and is the third-largest global gas producer. However, most of the gas produced goes to waste.
One of the reasons for the high gas losses is the very low energy prices in the country. The power, industrial, petrochemical, and even the household sectors do not have much incentive to increase efficiency, reduce energy consumption and save more energy. Oil, gas and electricity production and distribution is controlled by the state.
A 12-fold depreciation of the value of the rial over the past decade has made energy even cheaper compared to other countries. If the government had raised the prices of energy carriers in line with the depreciation of the rial, the country would have faced hyperinflation like Venezuela, and there would have been a significant risk of widespread public protests.
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, Iran had gas subsidies of $45 billion in 2022. In other words, the difference between the country's consumer gas price and global prices in 2022 was about $45 billion.
Iran also had subsidies of $30 billion for electricity and $52 billion for petroleum products last year. Iran with $127 billion fossil fuel subsidies ranks the second after Russia in the world.
The figure accounts for 36% of the country's total gross domestic product in 2022.