As a truce took hold in Gaza between Israel and Hamas for the first time in seven weeks, Iranian officials continued to boast about a Palestinian victory in the war.
Former chief of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani tweeted that the ceasefire proves Israel has been defeated in the conflict. “Hamas was not destroyed” and remains at its positions, he stated. “The military infrastructure of resistance, especially tunnels, are active,” he added and said, “This is an absolute failure for Netanyahu”.
Although Iran now fully takes credit for supporting Hamas throughout the past two decades by providing both financial and military assistance, it has so far tried to avoid direct military involvement in the war. It knows that any open act of aggression against Israel in current conditions could invite retaliation, even from the United States. Its most powerful proxy force, the Lebanese Hezbollah, has also shied away from a full-scale war, limiting itself to border skirmishes with Israel.
However, Tehran’s diplomacy has been in full swing. Together with its ally Qatar, to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, knowing that the longer the conflict lasts, the weaker Hamas will become, with the ultimate likelihood of its full defeat. For that reason, foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has been visiting Qatar and meeting with both Qataris and Hamas leaders residing in the Sheikdom trying to facilitate a ceasefire.
But the public rhetoric of Iranian regime officials has aimed at showing strength, not weakness. In his latest meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Amir-Abdollahian congratulated him for “resistance and victory,” stating, "The practical consequences of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm shook the world, and although the human losses suffered by the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip were significant, bitter, and unpleasant, the dimensions of victory and achievements of the Palestinian people were much greater. It altered the strategic balances in various dimensions in favor of Palestine and to the detriment of the oppressive, invading, and criminal Zionist regime."
Earlier this month, the commander of IRGC aerospace force Gen. Amirali Hajizadeh in an interview with local media, called a war with the United States “illogical.” Although he was speaking in the context of why the Islamic Republic did not launch a full attack against US bases in the wake of Qassem Soleimani’s targeted killing in 2020, but the message was clear. Tehran knows that it would sustain heavy losses in case it crosses certain red lines, while also facing the danger of domestic unrest.
Iran’s anti-Western and staunchly anti-Israeli ruler Ali Khamenei has delivered public remarks on several occasions in the past few weeks, but except praising Hamas, he has been careful not to make escalatory remarks.
However, his loyal clerics use religious sermons to praise the October 7 Hamas terror attack that triggered the Gaza war. On Friday, Tehran’s prayer Imam Kazem Sedighi boasted that the Palestinians have gone on the offensive, and this is a lesson they learned from Iran’s “spirit of resistance.” He then went on attacking Western leaders for supporting Israel.
“The physical presence of the irrational, heartless, ruthless leaders of Western countries, led by the absent-minded President of the United States [in the occupied territories], followed by the support of the Chancellor of Germany and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and the President of France, demonstrated that not only the Zionist regime but all the powers are fragile snowmen, and if humans rely on the power of God against them, their emptiness and futility will be revealed to the world,” the cleric said.
Meanwhile, Revolutionary Guard top commanders make daily statements about deploying new weapons, or simply praise Iran’s military power and progress. Meanwhile, Iranians opposed to the clerical regime ridicule the IRGC and regime insiders on social media by asking why they did not manage to go to Gaza and do what they have promised for decades – fighting against Israel.