Iran To Archive Nuclear Deal Soon, Former MP Says
Former MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh claims the country's nuclear dossier will now move to the Foreign Ministry, meaning the end of the JCPOA.
Former MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh claims the country's nuclear dossier will now move to the Foreign Ministry, meaning the end of the JCPOA.
Speaking to Setareh-e Sobh newspaper, he said: “It seems likely that foreign policy cases will be transferred from the Council to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which means issues like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will be archived,” he claimed, referring to the recent change to the leadership of the Supreme National Security Council.
Iran's Security Chief Ali Shamkhani stepped down Monday with President Ebrahim Raisi appointing a heavily sanctioned Revolutionary Guards commander as his replacement.
Shamkhani, who served as the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) for a decade, was replaced by Ali Akbar Ahmadian, an IRGC chief of the Joint Staff in the 2000s who later headed the Guards’ strategic center.
Warning of the consequences of the shifting portfolio, the former MP said that when the Saudis could not reach an agreement with Iran's Foreign Ministry after six rounds of negotiations in Baghdad, they reached a deal with the Supreme National Security Council in Beijing, leading to the recent detente.
He further added that there are no skillful experts at the foreign ministry now, so Saudis decided to hold talks with Iran’s security officials instead.
Falahatpisheh said the new Security Council chief would focus more on defense issues with nuclear being sidelined.
Speaking to reporters after a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Director Mohammad Eslami insisted that the government would cooperate with international inspectors on any “new activities.”
“The Islamic Republic of Iran is working under the IAEA safeguards, and whenever it wants to start new activities, it will coordinate with the IAEA, and act accordingly,” Eslami said, referring to the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
He made the remarks following an Associated Press report that showed the regime is building a deep underground nuclear facility near the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, close to the Natanz nuclear site, with experts claiming development “is likely beyond the range of a last-ditch US weapon designed to destroy such sites."
Describing the new claims as “bogus” and “a psychological operation” originated by Israel, Eslami added that whenever Israel finds itself stuck in difficult situations in the region, it “intensifies these psychological operations more and more." He did not elaborate on what he meant by a difficult situation.
The report analyzed expert opinions as well as satellite imagery from Planet Labs PBC to prove Iran’s activities near the Natanz nuclear site, which has come under repeated sabotage attacks amid Tehran’s standoff with the West over its atomic program. According to experts, photographs of the piles of dirt from the excavations suggest the new tunnels will be between 80 meters (260 feet) and 100 meters (328 feet) deep.
The report sparked wider conversation across the Middle East about the construction, with Israel’s national security adviser saying Tuesday the site would not be immune from attack even if its depth put it out of range of American airstrikes. Lieutenant-General Herzi Halevi, chief of Israel's armed forces raised the prospect of "action" against Iran, warning that "Iran has advanced with uranium enrichment further than ever before ... There are negative developments on the horizon that could bring about (military) action.”
The US Air Force released rare images of the weapon, the GBU-57, known as the “Massive Ordnance Penetrator,” designed to destroy weapons of mass destruction located in well protected facilities. However, it immediately took the photos down because they revealed sensitive details about the weapon’s composition and punch.
Natanz, about 225 kilometers (140 miles) south of Tehran, has been a point of international concern since its existence became known two decades ago. This is not the first time reports surface about Iran building a vast tunnel network near Natanz, purportedly able to withstand cyberattacks and bunker-penetrating bombs.
The Islamic Republic claims the new construction will replace an above-ground centrifuge manufacturing center at Natanz struck by an explosion and fire in July 2020.
Last year, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Behrouz Kamalvandi, reacted to a report by the New York Times revealing underground work, claiming Iran had notified the UN nuclear agency of its plan to relocate the activities of the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA) complex in Karaj to the city of Natanz.
He claimed the move aimed to prevent the recurrence of attacks, referring to a recent drone attack at the TESA complex near Karaj which manufactures parts for centrifuges.
Over the years, a series of attacks has seemed to slow Iran’s nuclear activities. In 2010, the Natanz uranium enrichment facility suffered serious damage following a major cyber-attack involving the Stuxnet virus. Three years later, the Fordow enrichment site was rocked by an explosion. More recently, in July 2020, a centrifuge assembly facility was hit by an explosion and in April 2021 an explosion at the enrichment plant caused a power outage that reportedly damaged thousands of centrifuges.
The lawmaker, Shahryar Haidari, did not name his source, but said face-to-face negotiations is the new US approach. He added that Washington wants to get more concessions from Tehran during direct negotiations.
Haidari said: "Iran's condition for taking part in direct negotiations with the United States is that Washington should apologize to Tehran for its mistakes during the past 44 years." He added that "Iran might restore its ties with Washington if America offers the apology."
However, Haidari added that Iran cannot trust the United States although the US has been calling for direct negotiations for two years. He further emphasized that there is no need to discuss the 2015 nuclear deal any further as Iran has already answered all the questions the Western side has asked.
Haidari accused the United States and the "Zionist lobby" in America of obstructing a deal. However, he added that the renewed US calls for direct talks is one of the outcomes of Iran's rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, foreign relations expert Mehdi Motaharnia told Fararu website in Tehran that "the United States has a complicated roadmap to harness Iran while the JCPOA is dying." He said that the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is part of an agreement between superpowers.
Motaharnia added that based on this agreement, Iran will lose its regional leverage after making peace with Saudi Arabia while it will still remain isolated in the region.
Fararu quoted a Bloomberg report which claims there has been a significant reduction in international inspections of Iran's nuclear program which is the world's most closely watched. Fararu highlighted that the claim is based on statements by Rafael Grossi, director of the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA. This comes while Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami has recently said that "negotiations between Iran and the IAEA have been progressing positively." Fararu also claimed, EU Foreign Policy chief Josep Borrell has also said that there have been "positive progresses" in the IAEA's inspection of Iran's nuclear program.
According to Motaharnia, Iran’s relations with the IAEA are affected by domestic politics including last year's nationwide protests, as well as regional and international developments including the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. However, Motaharnia maintained that Riyadh's approach to Iran has not changed. "Saudi Arabia speaks softly, but its tough stances have become even tougher."
"Outside the region, however, the West is planning to gradually isolate Iran," Motaharnia said. "As an example, Sweden's parliament has designated the IRGC as a terrorist group despite opposition by that country's foreign minister. On the other hand, both US Democrats and Republicans are trying to increase pressure on Tehran ahead of Iran’s 2024 parliamentary elections, in a bid to further isolate Tehran," he maintained.
He added that all this come while China and Russia are reluctant to pay a price to strongly support Iran. In such a situation, he said, positive reports about the "progress" of Iran's ties with the IAEA are nothing more than words. Meanwhile, Motaharnia reiterated on his long-held view that the JCPOA “is dead.”
In another development, reformist daily Sharq on May 18, summed up IAEA and EU officials' statements on Iran's nuclear program as "a waste of time." In a report entitled "Time-Killing Diplomacy" the newspaper insisted that according to some diplomats, Europe is seriously against the revival of JCPOA and that the EU has gone as far as calling for reviving international sanctions against Iran.
Khamenei addressed foreign ministry officials and ambassadors at a time when his foreign policy of defying the West has become more controversial in Iran amid a serious economic crisis.
Khamenei set out to explain and clarify the principles and standards of “a successful foreign policy” focusing on three keywords: Honor, wisdom, and expediency.
A foreign policy based on supplication in words or in essence, and begging for favors from foreign powers is doomed, Khamenei said. He urged diplomats to respond to the words and actions of others reciprocally and “with honor.”
The 83-year-old authoritarian ruler also emphasized the need for wisdom in foreign policy. In a statement urging caution, he said that “uncalculated and dismissive” decisions and actions in the past have harmed the country.
Iranian officials and politicians, however, usually take their cue from Khamenei, especially in foreign policy matters. His past statements against regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, or the United States and Europe have led to more provocative statements by his underlings.
But the Supreme Leader often speaks with double meanings, leaving room for himself to shirk responsibility if a certain policy proves to be a failure.
Khamenei used this tactic during nuclear negotiations a decade ago. While approving the policy of talks and compromise, he also warned that other nations could not be trusted, and a nuclear deal might prove to be disadvantageous.
He followed the same tact on Saturday, saying that the principle of using ‘wisdom’ also means not to unnecessarily trust what other countries say, although sometimes they are sincere. He has repeatedly said in the past that the United States and its allies cannot be trusted.
Khamenei in his speech used the Islamic concept of 'Taqiyya' to describe the regime's decision to accept the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with the West. Taqiyya means the permissibility to deny or conceal one's real beliefs to secure a worthy goal.
Khamenei’s emphasis on “expediency” as the third principle in foreign policy was particularly notable, as he urged flexibility “in necessary instances” and circumventing “tough barriers” to continue a set course.
His mention of ‘flexibility’ was a reference to his famous phrase of “heroic flexibility” in 2013, when he signaled his permission for nuclear talks to begin.
“Of course, a few years ago when ‘heroic flexibility’ was mentioned, some abroad and in Iran had the wrong take on it. Expediency means finding ways to circumvent difficult obstacles and pursuing the same path,” Khamenei clarified.
In the context of Iran's nuclear program, this remark could mean that Khamenei justifies negotiations as a way of continuing to pursue the same goal by going around the opposition of other countries.
Commentators and many politicians in Iran have been increasingly calling for a flexible foreign policy and accommodation with the West, while the public knows that Khamenei makes all the key decisions.
With annual inflation reported to be near 70 percent and the Iranian currency losing half its value in the past year, with popular anti-regime protests and labor strikes, Khamenei finds himself in a tough position. However, so far, there is no indications of a foreign policy shift, except an agreement to restore diplomatic ties with regional rival Saudi Arabia.
Khamenei in his speech urged his foreign policy establishment to work hard for improving ties with regional countries, blaming “the enemy for doing everything” to drive a wedge between Iran and its neighbors.
In Khamenei’s lexicon, ‘the enemy’ refers mainly to the United States and Israel and to a lesser extent to other US allies, including European powers.
Iran’s advancements in uranium enrichment technology, its continuing interventions in the region and changed circumstances make the 2015 nuclear agreement out of place. However, Washington and its European allies are worried about Iran reaching the nuclear break-out point and are looking for ways to forge a new deal with Tehran.
Jalal Sadatian, Iran’s former ambassador in Britain told ILNA news website in Tehran that if the United States does not find a solution to the nuclear crisis with Iran, it might up the ante and trigger the return of international sanctions at the UN Security Council.
Sadatian argued that Washington was not after more tensions with Iran in 2021 and 2022 as it negotiated for the revival of the JCPOA, but all attempts to reach a deal failed. Now, some reports speak of a limited deal in which Iran receives partial sanctions relief in exchange for limiting the production of fissile material.
Amir-Ali Abolfat’h, a commentator on international affairs who is considered an expert on US issues in Iran, told Fararu website that a partial agreement does not seem to a feasible alternative for both sides. The US is concerned about the knowhow Iran has achieved in uranium enrichment and what it really wants is to eliminate the danger for good.
The US is concerned that if problems emerge in the future after a deal, Iran “would have plenty of means to achieve new progress in its nuclear program,” he said and added that the US cannot limit the scientific advances Iran has made, “nor bomb it out of existence.”
Iran on the other hand, would not agree to serious nuclear curbs simply for partial lifting of sanctions, Abolfat’h said.
What the United States wants from Iran goes even beyond the nuclear issue, the Iranian expert said. “They want multiple JCPOAs,” not just nuclear deal, he said. They want a comprehensive deal preventing Iran’s interventions in the region and weapons proliferation, making the revival of the 2015 accord impractical.
A recent article in Foreign Policy by university professors Ali Vaez and Vali Nasr in the United States has attracted a lot of attention among experts in Iran. The authors argued that a comprehensive deal, including a nuclear and a regional agreement would be the best solution for the Middle East. But comments about the article in the Iranian media reveal a misunderstanding by local pundits, who see the suggestion more as a partial deal than a comprehensive solution.
Abolfat’h for example argued that the proposal by the two US experts is “reductionist and unrealistic,” and Iran would not agree with any partial lifting of sanctions. He added that the two authors are close to the Biden administration and “their proposals is not necessarily compatible with Iran’s national interests.”
Sadatian, however, sounded more optimistic that reduction of regional tensions could help the process of achieving a lasting deal with the United States. He pointed out that although Iran’s March agreement with Saudi Arabia to restore relations is not a decisive factor by itself, but it can help smooth the way toward a deal with the West.
He also warned about Russia’s interest in torpedoing any agreement, echoing past concerns by many Iranian observers.
“If we want to revisit all the strange ups and downs in our relations with the West, we can easily see the footprint of Russia that has tried not to allow us to get closer to the United States.”
