Most Iranian Lawmakers Cannot Get Re-elected, Pundit Says
An umbrella organization monitoring political parties in Iran has said that two-thirds of current lawmakers are unlikely to make it to the next parliament.
An umbrella organization monitoring political parties in Iran has said that two-thirds of current lawmakers are unlikely to make it to the next parliament.
The Chairman of the Research Center of House of Parties, Mehdi Arab-Sadeq in an interview with moderate-conservative Khabar Online website said that "Some of these lawmakers need to apologize to the Iranian nation" for what they have and have not done at the Majles (parliament).
However, he said that the unpleasant situation is likely to continue as long as political parties are not there to serve the nation's interests, a reference to the fact that these groups are tightly controlled by the core of the regime and become active only weeks before choreographed elections.
Arab-Sadeq also criticized the government for "behaving in a way that the people laugh when officials put forward a new promise or fire off a new slogan." The government has remained inefficient in solving multiple crises, yet it is planning to win the next parliament in the 2024 elections.
Khabar Online presenting the interview described the Iranian year that ended March 20 as "a politically turbulent year" and recalled that this was a year in which 200 of parliament's 290 members who had called on Ebrahim Raisi to run for President in 2021, wrote to him that they regretted their decision. Despite this regret, lawmakers did not act to impeach ministers that they kept criticizing throughout the year.
The website added that some top government officials and several members of parliament have been setting up political parties or organizations during the past weeks apparently in preparation for next year’s elections.
Sadeq-Arab in his interview also noted that political parties allowed to exist did not lift a finger during months of widespread antigovernment protests.
He added that given the political and economic situation, at least two third of the 290 lawmakers cannot win enough votes to enter the next parliament.
Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Alirezabeigi said in an interview with ILNA website in Tehran, that the government does not listen to lawmakers' advice. "We told the government over and over that its economic vehicle is broken, but the only thing it did was changing the driver," he said, alluding to the change of the governor of the central bank and the ministers of labor and housing during the past year.
Alirezabeigi attributed most of the country's current economic chaos to the government's manipulation of foreign currency market, where the Iranian rial has seen its steepest fall in recent months. He argued that government intervention cannot solve the problem as it did not do so under previous governments. He charged that successive administrations have poured some $280 billion dollars of hard currency into the market since the 1990s to support the rial, without success. The currency has fallen almost 50-fold in the past 25 years.
Meanwhile, criticizing the government's inefficiency, Alirezabeigi said all of the current economic problems could have been predicted and prevented if officials were real experts. He further charged that the current government has totally lost the ability to control the supply and prices of essential commodities. As a result, industries and those involved in entrepreneurship in the centrally controlled economy have lost their hope and do not know how to survive.
Minutes of a meeting of senior clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leaked to media last week, suggest that the economic and political situation in Iran has made the Islamic Republic’s forces sell information about Quds Force operations to Israel, and that more and more elements are seeking to leave the battlefield in Syria and get jobs and positions inside the country.
The 44-page document contains citations of remarks by 45 IRGC commanders and clerics at a meeting at Khamenei’s office on January 3 on the anniversary of the death of Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the US three years ago.
Almost all the participants spoke about the current wave of antiregime protests that has engulfed the country since September last year. The meeting, held more than three months into the protests, focused on the negative impact of the protests on the morale of forces under the command of the IRGC and their burn-out, with several offering anecdotal accounts of insubordination.
The document indicates that officials are shocked by the large scale and duration of the protests and admit that they do not have the means to quell the uprising. The participants also acknowledged massive defections and desertions among the military forces and clerics, mainly due to the unrelenting economic woes as well as in protest to the heavy-handed crackdown by security forces and harsh sentences by the judiciary.
Rahim No’i Aghdam, who served as the commander of IRGC’s Zeynab operational headquarters in Syria, said during the meeting that the Quds Force "faces many problems" in the border areas of Israel and the Golan Heights. He mentioned Israel's "non-stop" bombings and "inability of quick access to the supplies of Iran's allied forces in this region" as some of the problems, adding that economic hardships and the ongoing protests have also led to "ideological issues and family problems" among the ranks of the forces.
He said that "leaks of operational plans” has reduced the edge of Iranian forces against Israelis, adding that "pre-emptive attacks by Israeli forces in five operations showed us that the issue of infiltration... and the forces’ unwillingness to remain at Israel's borders” have made them do “unimaginable” things, such as selling military intel.
No’i Aghdam added that if the Islamic Republic loses the areas that it has gained "with years of effort" outside its borders, "a practical threat to the Islamic Republic regime will not be unimaginable."
Other attendees also talked about the desertions and disobedience within their forces, with Abdollah Haji-Sadeghi, Khamenei’s representative in the IRGC, saying that “there is no doubt about desertions.” He said that different security organizations of the country have reported varying figures, from 12 percent to 68 percent of desertions.
Khodarahm Sarani, the IRGC’s commander in the city of Zahedan -- the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan province that is home to Iran's Sunni Baluch minority of up to two million – said the demands of the people there are basic such as water and basic necessities. He added that remarks by their Sunni leader Mowlavi Abdolahamid have united the residents, making them leave aside their sectarian differences and focus on popular demands.
Sarani then made a direct attack on the secretary of Iran’s security council Ali Shamkhani who was present at the meeting. “When an officer under my command comes to my office and shows the watch worn by Mr. Shamkhani's son and tells me that the price of this watch is equal to four years of my service in the armed forces, how can I answer?”
“We cannot always blame the problems on the enemy, yes, we are under sanctions, but the country's income is not low. If there are problems in the country, then how come these problems do not show themselves at the level of military commanders,” he added.
Iran International has received a copy of a 44-page document that contains citations of the remarks made by 45 IRGC commanders and clerics at a meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at his office on January 3 on the anniversary of the death of IRGC’s extraterritorial Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani.
The document ends with an excerpt of Khamenei’s own remarks complaining that those present had spoken about loss of faith and the hardships that the rank and file endure, but no one had talked about those who had kept their faith in the regime despite hardships.
The meeting was held more than three months into the anti-regime protests following the death of the 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of ‘morality police’ and quickly spread across the country.
Participants in the meeting included top IRGC officers such as Major General Gholam-Ali Rashid, commander of IRGC’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mahmoud Mohammadi-Shahroudi who heads the Basij Militia Organization of Seminary Students and Clerics and Hojjat ol-Eslam Abdollah Haji-Sadeghi, Khamenei’s representative in the IRGC.
Rashid told Khamenei that there had been several cases of major insubordination since the protests started including aborted plans to use artillery to shell certain targets in Tehran, including Khamenei’s residence. Culprits were arrested, he said.
Speakers mainly focused on the negative impact of the protests on the morale of forces under the command of the IRGC, with several offering anecdotal accounts of insubordination. They also mentioned personnel’s refusal to use violence against protesters, particularly women and also cases of desertion. According to one commander, forces had even helped the protesters in some cases by providing misleading information to operational forces and sending them to wrong locations.
Some of the speakers also said the rank and file were paid low salaries which in many cases made them identify themselves with the discontented public and sympathize with them. Some like Major General Rashid suggested that taking action to improve the living standards of the personnel was required given rising cost of living that affected them and their loyalty to the regime.
Iran has been experiencing 40-50-percent annual inflation for the past three years, with food items rising 70-110 percent in one year. Crippling US sanctions are the major reason behind the economic crisis.
In one case, Colonel Ehsan Khorshidi, the coordinating deputy of the IRGC in Alborz Province said that a few conscripts and a lieutenant stole military’s food supplies which were then distributed in the poverty-stricken neighborhoods of Karaj, the capital of the province. “Feeling sympathy with the people is not a small matter. This time it was the food supplies of the division. What if next time it is the weapons they distribute?” he asked.
He also pointed out that many among the families of the forces had been involved in the protests and had even been arrested. “This morning at least six senior officers contacted me to ask me to request my help to get backing from the commander of the force in the matter of the arrest of their family members.”
According to the document, Khamenei said the judiciary chief should order leniency in the cases of arrested IRGC staff’s family members.
Several of the speakers pointed out that the continuation of the protest for months and their spread across the country had been beyond their expectations. Given past experiences, Colonel Khorshidi said, officials thought the protests would be quelled even before reaching the level they could be considered as a “threat”.