Bank of England raises interest rates to 4% as Iran war fuels inflation

Turkey's parliament approved the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on Thursday by 279 votes to 119, completing a major legislative step toward Ankara's participation in a security arrangement that treats an attack on one member as an attack on all three.

The agreement, signed in August, provides for intelligence sharing, military coordination, joint deterrence and defense industry cooperation. It does not automatically authorize Turkish troop deployments, which would require separate parliamentary approval.

The pact builds on an earlier Saudi-Pakistani defense agreement and reflects Riyadh's efforts to diversify its security partnerships amid the wider conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

Although the pact predates the latest attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthis, those attacks have given its collective-defense commitments more immediate significance.

Houthi attacks put defense commitments to the test

The three countries agreed during consultations in Riyadh in September to implement collective-defense measures, including arrangements for the rapid deployment of agreed military forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia.

The decision came as fighting intensified in Yemen, with Houthi forces launching missile and drone attacks against Saudi targets and Riyadh resuming military operations against the group.

The Houthis have described some of their attacks as retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen. Reuters reported in September, citing Iranian and regional sources, that Iran's Revolutionary Guards had helped direct a Houthi offensive along Yemen's Red Sea coast and that Tehran had encouraged further attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Yemen's internationally recognized government made further allegations this week, accusing Iranian and Hezbollah personnel of directly helping manage Houthi military operations.

Interior Minister Ibrahim Ali Haidan said Tuesday that 14 members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards and seven Lebanese Hezbollah experts were involved in planning operations, developing missile and drone capabilities, and coordinating attacks on international shipping.

Haidan said decisions were made in Tehran and announced in Sanaa, accusing Iran of moving beyond financing, arming and training the Houthis to directly supervising their military activities.

Iran's Foreign Ministry denied Thursday that Iranian military experts were operating in Yemen. Hezbollah rejected the allegations Wednesday, saying it had no personnel working with the Houthis and describing the accusations as baseless.

The allegations and denials come as Saudi Arabia weighs how to respond to Houthi attacks and what military assistance it could receive from its new defense partners.

Turkish officials have indicated that Ankara's contribution would initially focus on equipment, intelligence and weapons systems, Reuters reported. Defense Minister Yasar Guler has said Turkey does not envisage its troops engaging in combat or offensive operations against the Houthis.

Opposition lawmakers warned during Thursday's parliamentary debate that the agreement could draw Turkey into regional wars. Government representatives said any troop deployment would require separate parliamentary approval, according to the Associated Press.

Defense partners keep diplomatic channels with Tehran open

Despite their expanding military cooperation, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have also pursued direct talks with Iran in an effort to prevent another regional escalation.

Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26 to discuss ways to prevent renewed regional fighting.

Saudi Arabia said the visit was intended to open negotiating channels and prevent renewed military escalation.

The discussions took place as Washington and Tehran remained divided over terms for ending their confrontation, including sanctions, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Turkish and Pakistani officials have maintained that the Mecca agreement is defensive and is not directed against Iran or any other country.

For Ankara, the immediate question remains how much practical military support it will provide Saudi Arabia. The defense agreement establishes a collective commitment, but the scope of any Turkish deployment and its role in the confrontation with the Houthis have yet to be determined.

Reformist and pragmatic conservative publications have urged Iranian leaders to exploit the shifting political climate in the United States to secure economic concessions, while hardline outlets argue that Tehran should preserve its maritime leverage regardless of the election outcome.

The debate comes as Iran faces mounting economic pressure, with inflation nearing triple digits, industrial shortages and shipping restrictions disrupting supplies of essential goods.

Reformist newspaper Shargh focused on the country's economic struggles, welcoming Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's proposal for implementing de-escalation measures in the Strait of Hormuz within two days.

Pragmatic conservative Khorasan, which is close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, urged lawmakers to pursue a negotiated settlement while ensuring parliamentary oversight of the proposed two-day mechanism.

The convergence suggests that support for exploring a deal extends beyond Iran's reformist camp, despite differences in political priorities.

‘Rescue the economy’

Sobh-e No, another conservative newspaper aligned with Ghalibaf, argued that Tehran should make the most of Trump's defeat to secure binding economic commitments.

Even Hamshahri, owned by the hardliner-led Tehran Municipality, called for swift diplomatic action, warning that shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf were straining domestic supply chains and contributing to soaring food prices.

The US naval blockade has compounded Iran's economic crisis, effectively halting its oil exports and disrupting other maritime trade. Iran has not loaded oil for export since mid-August, according to shipping data from Kpler.

Together, these arguments reflect a calculation that Iran's maritime leverage may be more valuable if converted into immediate economic relief than maintained indefinitely.

‘Maintain pressure’

Hardline publications, however, showed little enthusiasm for changing Tehran's position.

Kayhan argued that the political balance in Washington had no bearing on what it described as Iran's "operational dominance" in Hormuz.

Javan similarly maintained that Tehran should continue using the strategic waterway to pressure Washington, regardless of which party controls Congress.

The English-language Tehran Times argued that the elections had changed neither Iran's ability to restrict maritime traffic nor its conditions for de-escalation.

Some conservative commentary also portrayed Vice President JD Vance's diplomatic outreach as evidence that the Trump administration was under pressure from high energy prices and difficulties securing maritime traffic.

Under this interpretation, the election results reinforced Washington's vulnerability but offered little reason for Tehran to soften its demands.

‘Beware miscalculation’

Other conservative publications struck a more cautious tone.

Resalat warned against assuming the election results would fundamentally change Washington's approach to Tehran, arguing that the United States remained an unreliable negotiating partner regardless of which party controlled Congress.

Jomhouri Eslami, meanwhile, cautioned that assuming Washington would indefinitely tolerate the closure of Hormuz could invite a wider regional war.

The competing assessments come as Tehran pursues diplomatic contacts beyond Washington.

On Thursday, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and delivered a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian state media reported.

The question facing Iranian policymakers is whether Trump's electoral setback offers a chance to secure concessions or whether maintaining pressure will yield better terms, and how long Iran can afford to wait.

The argument featured prominently on Iranian state television on Thursday, where commentators urged Iran to maintain its leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that easing pressure could allow the United States to continue its naval blockade even after the war formally ends.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei dismissed hopes that changes in the balance of power in Washington could lead to a softer American approach.

In a message published Wednesday to mark Iran's National Day of Fighting Global Arrogance, Khamenei described as "seriously mistaken" those who retain "even the slightest hope for a change in behavior or shifts in political parties and factions" in the United States.

He warned that even a limited inclination toward surrender would weaken the government's domestic support and encourage further American demands.

Keeping up the pressure

Vahid Khazab, a regular panellist on the state television programme Be Vaght-e Iran (Iran Time), said Democrats were unlikely to oppose the US naval blockade of Iran on principle.

"I have not heard anyone come forward and say that a naval blockade is wrong," he said. "They would not oppose a blockade unless it became costly too."

Khazab argued that Iran should keep the Strait of Hormuz completely closed to make the US naval blockade as costly for Washington as the war itself, warning that the blockade's continuation could effectively prolong the conflict even after hostilities formally end.

The remarks reflected an argument among hardline commentators that Tehran should preserve its economic and strategic leverage rather than interpret the Democratic victories as an opening for compromise.

Claiming a political victory

Senior Iranian officials and pro-establishment media have portrayed the Democrats' gains as a consequence of the political and economic costs of the war.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X that Iran had inflicted a strategic defeat on Trump on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a political defeat in Washington.

The hardline newspaper Javan, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that "Iran won the election in America," describing the Democratic victory as a political aftershock of Trump's conduct of the war.

Khazab pointed to rising gasoline, diesel and fertiliser prices, arguing that the war had contributed to Republican losses in agricultural states such as Iowa and Kansas.

"What caused the high prices of gasoline, diesel, and chemical fertilizers?" he asked. "Was it Trump's personality? Was it Trump's corruption and that of his sons? Was it Elon Musk? No, it was the war."

The programme's presenter said the significance of the elections lay not in a Democratic victory but in "the defeat of the Republicans because of the policies they adopted" toward Iran.

No expectations of Democrats

The commentators also warned against repeating what they regarded as misplaced optimism following Joe Biden's victory over Trump in 2020.

Nima Akbarkhani, another regular panellist, criticised reformists who had expected Biden to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement after Trump withdrew from it in 2018. Although Biden returned the United States to several international agreements abandoned by Trump, his administration did not rejoin the nuclear deal.

"Why didn't he return to the JCPOA?" Akbarkhani asked, referring to the agreement by its formal abbreviation. "Because they were telling themselves that this was once again the time to enter new negotiations and secure further concessions."

Mohammad Saleh Jowkar, a member of parliament, echoed Khamenei's warning in comments to the Mehr News Agency.

"It is absolutely unacceptable for some to assume that the arrival of the Democrats, a change in the composition of the US Senate or House of Representatives, or political developments in that country have created conditions for negotiations and concessions," he said.

Khazab added that the US elections were worth examining, if only because "understanding the enemy's camp is essential," he said.

Tehran sent Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official who said any discussion of its contents would depend on the United States first meeting Iran's seven demands.

The official said Washington was reviewing the proposal.

Trump has acknowledged that the war contributed to Republican losses in Tuesday's elections, while Democratic leaders have vowed to use their new congressional majorities to push for an end to military operations against Iran.

For Tehran, the election results have raised the prospect of negotiating with a politically weakened president, although Iranian officials continue to insist on concrete concessions before relaxing their grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

Putin offers support for ending war

Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei travelled to Moscow, where he delivered a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Rezaei told Iranian state television that Khamenei had wanted the message conveyed to Putin as soon as possible. He did not disclose its contents.

According to Rezaei, Putin condemned US and Israeli attacks on Iran, including strikes on its nuclear facilities, and offered Russian assistance in ending the war.

"He believed this was an unjust war and that it should end as soon as possible," Rezaei said. "He said, 'We are ready to cooperate in any way we can to help end the war.'"

Rezaei said Putin welcomed recent consultations among four regional countries in Tehran and supported a security framework that would exclude outside powers.

"Like our Chinese friends, we believe there should be regional arrangements and that foreign countries should not interfere in the region's security," Rezaei quoted Putin as saying.

Rezaei's involvement may also indicate a willingness among influential figures in Iran's security establishment to explore a negotiated settlement.

The New York Times reported, citing two Iranian officials and an American official, that Rezaei had privately expressed openness to discussing Iran's nuclear programme.

According to the report, he has been involved in negotiations with Qatari mediators alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Regional diplomatic outreach

Araghchi also held separate telephone conversations Thursday with his counterparts from nine countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, according to Iranian state media.

The calls, which also included Pakistan, Jordan, Kuwait and Cyprus, focused on regional developments and efforts to end the war.

The breadth of the diplomatic activity suggests that discussions extend beyond Iran's foreign ministry to senior figures in its security and political establishment, although Tehran's willingness to compromise remains unclear.

The central obstacle is the sequence of concessions. Iran wants Washington to meet its demands before substantive nuclear discussions can proceed, while the United States has yet to indicate whether it will accept those conditions.

Matin Shabani and Amir Delshad were sentenced by Branch 5 of the Mashhad Revolutionary Court, presided over by Judge Hossein Yazdankhah, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

An Iran International review of cases involving political charges found that approximately 220 prisoners are currently under sentence of death across Iran, up from around 194 previously reported.

Shabani was convicted of moharebeh, or "waging war against God", over allegations of arson and destruction of public property during protests in Shandiz, near Mashhad.

His case relates to demonstrations on January 8 and 9, during which a mosque and a Quranic education centre caught fire, according to a source cited by HRANA.

Shabani was arrested during those protests and later transferred to Vakilabad Prison. His death sentence had been communicated to him before Thursday's report, HRANA said.

Delshad was sentenced to death over alleged activities on behalf of an opposition group, as well as arson and destruction of public property during the protests, according to HRANA.

His case has been referred to Iran's Supreme Court following an appeal against the sentence. He remains in Vakilabad Prison.

Other protesters facing execution in Mashhad

In another case, Pouria Hosseini-Mofrad, 23, has appealed his death sentence to Iran's Supreme Court, HRANA reported.

Arrested on January 14, he was sentenced to death in August on national security-related charges. A source cited by HRANA said the allegations against him included breaking the glass of a bus stop and setting fire to shrubs.

HRANA also identified 34-year-old Vahid Khedrikhah as one of three protesters sentenced to death in a separate joint case.

Khedrikhah, Matin Farnian, 23, and a third defendant whose identity remains unknown were convicted of moharebeh by the same court.

Khedrikhah was wounded by gunfire during the January protests, according to a source cited by HRANA.

Five protesters already executed in Mashhad

At least five protesters arrested in connection with January's demonstrations in Mashhad have been executed at Vakilabad Prison this year.

Mehdi Rasouli, 25, Mohammadreza Miri, 21, and Ebrahim Dolatabadinejad were executed on May 3 over their alleged involvement in the protests.

Authorities accused Rasouli and Miri of involvement in the killing of a Basij paramilitary member, while Dolatabadinejad was accused of directing protesters and inciting unrest. Rights groups reported that the men had been subjected to torture and forced confessions.

Two others, Ali Hemmati Sistani and Majid Nikandish, 25, were executed on September 30 after being convicted of moharebeh.

Iran's judiciary accused them of involvement in protests in Mashhad's Tabarsi district on January 8 that allegedly resulted in the deaths of four security personnel.

Amnesty International said the men had been convicted following grossly unfair trials in which televised forced confessions were used as evidence.

According to Norway-based Iran Human Rights, at least 81 people were executed on political charges between January and the end of October, including 32 protesters.