Iran sentences man detained over January protests to death

Crude prices rose above $116 a barrel on October 24 following reports of two attacks involving supertankers near Oman, prompting hardline newspaper Kayhan to portray the increase as vindication of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy's strategy of asymmetric pressure around the Strait of Hormuz.

Under the headline “Minefields near Musandam Prove Diplomacy Is Obsolete,” Kayhan argued that disruption to shipping and the resulting pressure on global energy markets had strengthened Iran's bargaining position rather than demonstrated the need for compromise.

The newspaper accused moderates and more pragmatic conservatives of “begging for an agreement,” singling out the centrist Sazandegi newspaper, which supports reaching a deal with the United States.

But the same confrontation is taking a growing toll on Iran's economy.

Moderate daily Shargh warned that higher crude prices offer little relief to private-sector manufacturers facing bankruptcy and argued that keeping negotiations with Washington alive is essential to Iran's economic survival.

The economic daily Donya-ye Eghtesad has also highlighted pressure on factories in industrial centers including Isfahan, Tabriz and Arak, reporting an unprecedented wave of corporate bankruptcies as the maritime blockade continues.

The competing assessments expose an increasingly important argument in Tehran: whether the economic disruption caused by the confrontation is leverage to be exploited or damage Iran can no longer afford.

Signs of diplomatic movement

The debate comes as signs of diplomatic movement feed cautious optimism among some Iranian political figures that an agreement with the United States may be becoming more likely than another round of war.

Former deputy parliamentary speaker Ali Motahari gave voice to that view on Monday, saying that for the first time in several weeks, the prospects of an agreement with Washington appeared greater than the likelihood of renewed conflict.

Speaking to reporters in Tehran, Motahari argued that war was becoming less likely because the United States was facing multiple problems and might therefore be prepared to accept some of Iran’s conditions.

Monday’s high-level talks with regional powers have added to that sense. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin are in Tehran to meet national security chief Mohsen Rezaei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

According to Iranian state outlets, Tehran has reiterated its proposal for reducing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following technical discussions in Doha, it resubmitted a plan to restore shipping through the waterway in stages over seven days.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iranian technical negotiators were examining US counterproposals on procedures for lifting the naval blockade.

Tehran insists the seven-day window will not begin until $24 billion in foreign reserves becomes fully accessible and restrictions on container clearance at Bandar Abbas are lifted.

Iran has also insisted that its seven-point de-escalation plan, based on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, remain separate from negotiations over uranium enrichment, International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and regional missile defense arrangements.

It remains unclear whether Washington accepts that separation. Tehran's position suggests it is seeking immediate economic relief while avoiding concessions on broader strategic issues.

The divide leaves Tehran confronting an awkward calculation. The disruption around Hormuz may be imposing higher costs on Iran's adversaries just as hardliners intended, but it is also increasing the economic pressure driving others in Tehran toward a deal.

Residents in Tabriz, Karaj, Kerman and Hamedan told Iran International that interruptions and delays in flour deliveries had disrupted independent bakeries and producers of various types of bread.

Several bakeries on a street in Tabriz have shut down, a resident said.

“I asked why, and they told me they weren't receiving flour. They keep promising that the flour quotas will be replenished today or tomorrow, but nothing happens.”

• 

  Iranians say basic food slipping beyond reach as bread prices soar

Previous reports have also documented flour shortages and bakery closures, with residents describing bread shortages and interruptions to production caused by electricity outages.

Flour supply disruptions shut bakeries and sandwich shops

Independent bakers have reported that difficulties obtaining flour have forced businesses to suspend operations.

A citizen of Hamedan in western Iran said flour shortages and rising prices had affected not only bakeries producing specialty bread but also sandwich shops.

Flour prices have risen, and suppliers are now saying there is no flour available at all, the resident said.

“Our bakery is closed because we have no flour, and nobody is taking responsibility,” a independent baker told Iran International.

The shortages have coincided with declining purchasing power, leaving bakeries struggling to secure supplies as customers struggle to afford bread.

“They don't have flour to give us, and I swear to God, people don't have money to buy bread either. Our economic situation has become critical,” another baker said.

• 

  Tehran bread prices jump up to 100% in latest increase

Iran's flour distribution system distinguishes between subsidized bakeries and independent bakeries, which face different purchasing prices and supply arrangements.

Flour allocations to certain independent bakeries had been reduced, Bagher Khodadadi, head of supervision and inspection at the Khorasan Razavi provincial agriculture department, confirmed on October 21.

Khodadadi said the shortages in flour distribution had been addressed.

Bakeries reducing their operating hours because of flour shortages would be committing a violation and could face enforcement measures, he added.

Rising prices disrupt food retailers

The flour supply problems have also affected food retailers that depend on bakeries for their products, according to messages.

Two bakeries supplying bread to a supermarket in Kerman said they no longer had enough flour to continue production, the store's owner said.

“Two of the bakers who supply me called and said there was no flour left and they couldn't bake and deliver bread tomorrow. A famine has officially begun.”

A resident of Karaj also described a sharp increase in bread prices.

“I bought two baguettes and they cost 800,000 rials. The price of flour has also tripled.”

• 

  Iranian wheat farmers face planting cash crunch as payments lag, rial slides

Iran International previously reported on October 8 that residents had described unannounced increases in bread prices and flour shortages in several areas.

Bread prices in Tehran province had risen by as much as 100% for certain varieties by June 23.

The increases have added to the financial pressure on households already struggling with declining purchasing power.

Uncertainty over flour quotas and pricing

The disruption has raised further questions about how flour quotas are allocated and priced for independent bakeries and producers of larger and semi-industrial bread varieties.

Flour allocations to these businesses were suspended about two weeks ago, according to another message received by Iran International.

The sender said suppliers had attributed the suspension to the government's failure to announce new flour prices, leaving bakeries uncertain about when deliveries would resume.

The resident also said certain flour mills were selling supplies on the black market without issuing invoices specifying prices.

Comments by provincial grain officials about flour allocations have added to questions over the distribution system and the availability of supplies.

“I wish we, the people of Iran, could vote too,” one Persian-speaking Instagram user wrote beneath a post about Netanyahu.

“I've pledged a thousand salawat and 12 candles for Bibi to win,” another wrote, referring to the Israeli leader by his widely used nickname and to a religious practice involving blessings.

The comments are among hundreds of Persian-language reactions to Netanyahu and Israel's October 27 election, reflecting hopes that the vote could help advance efforts against the Islamic Republic.

• 

  Iran in Israeli election: Netanyahu all-in on regime change, rivals want more

The comments, however, are not a representative measure of Iranian public opinion, and Persian-language posts alone do not establish whether their authors live inside Iran or abroad.

For Netanyahu's Iranian supporters, his continued leadership offers the prospect of finishing what they consider unfinished efforts to bring down Iran's ruling establishment.

From nuclear warnings to calls for political change

Netanyahu, born in Tel Aviv on October 21, 1949, grew up in an academic family and spent part of his adolescence in the United States.

After serving in an Israeli military special forces unit, he studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology before entering politics. He first became prime minister in 1996, aged 46.

The leader of the right-wing Likud party is Israel's longest-serving prime minister, and confronting the Islamic Republic has been a central feature of his political career.

In September 2012, Netanyahu displayed a cartoon drawing of a bomb at the United Nations, drawing a red line across it to warn about Iran's nuclear program.

The confrontation later extended beyond nuclear warnings.

During the 12-day war in June 2025, Israel struck Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Netanyahu told Iranians that the military campaign could pave the way for them to achieve freedom from the Islamic Republic.

Joint Israeli-US strikes on February 28, 2026, which killed Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked another stage in the confrontation.

Netanyahu’s military actions against the Islamic Republic and his calls for political change in Iran have earned him support among some opponents of the country’s ruling establishment.

Iran has also emerged as a major issue in Israel's election campaign, with Netanyahu's political rivals advocating tougher action against the Islamic Republic and criticizing his failure to eliminate the threat they say it poses.

Netanyahu speaks directly to Iranians

Netanyahu has repeatedly addressed Iranians directly through video messages and Persian-language social media posts, urging them to seek political change and an end to Islamic Republic rule.

• 

  Israel’s leaders have long wanted Iran’s rulers gone. They differ only on how

During Iran's water crisis in August 2025, Netanyahu promoted Israeli water technology and promised to send Israeli experts to help tackle the country's water shortages following a change of government.

That outreach has continued during the final days of his election campaign.

“The people of Iran deserve to live in freedom, security and dignity,” Netanyahu wrote in a Persian-language Instagram post on Thursday, October 22, five days before Israel's election.

The message came as Netanyahu faced significant political competition at home, even as Persian-speaking users expressed enthusiasm for his continued leadership.

His messages have resonated with some opponents of the Islamic Republic who hope Israeli pressure will contribute to political change in Iran.

How Bibi became Bibi Joon

Netanyahu's familiar nickname, Bibi, has taken on new forms among Persian-speaking admirers.

They call him Bibi Joon, adding a Persian term of affection, or Bibi Gol, a reference to a popular song by Iranian singer Moein.

The phenomenon has also attracted Netanyahu's attention.

Netanyahu himself referred to the nickname during a CBS News interview in May 2026, saying Iranians called him “Bibi-joon,” meaning beloved Bibi.

Netanyahu's standing among Iranians

More than half of respondents inside Iran, 50.6%, held favorable views of Netanyahu, compared with 38.1% who viewed him unfavorably, according to a survey conducted from June 20 to 27, 2026, by the Netherlands-based research group GAMAAN.

The online survey involved more than 31,000 participants and used statistical weighting to produce its findings.

In Israel, 47% of respondents preferred former military chief Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, compared with 37% who backed Netanyahu, according to a Madad poll published on October 23.

Netanyahu has also received the backing of US President Donald Trump, who urged Israelis to re-elect him to continue their joint campaign against the Islamic Republic.

• 

  Trump says US may ‘soon finish the job’ on Iran, Netanyahu vows to topple regime

“Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for Prime Minister, we have to finish the job that we started!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.

Persian-language reactions to Israel's election go beyond support for Netanyahu's re-election, expressing hopes that he will resume military action against the Islamic Republic.

“Why don't you finish the job before the vote?” another asked.

Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin will travel to Tehran, Reuters reported on Monday, citing Saudi and Iranian officials.

Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, confirmed the visit.

The initiative was proposed during Munir's visit to Tehran last week, when he met President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior officials, according to a senior Iranian official.

Iranian media reported that officials told Munir they would not negotiate with Washington until Tehran's demands were met.

Defense pact faces first major test

The visit marks the first high-level meeting between Iran and all three members of the Mecca defense pact since the escalation of hostilities.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed the agreement in August, establishing that a military attack on one member would be considered an attack on all three.

Pakistan has ratified the pact, while ratification remains pending in Turkey's parliament.

• 

  Mecca pact ties three Sunni powers together as Iran-backed attacks loom

Earlier this month, the three countries agreed to implement their defense commitments and rapidly deploy military personnel and capabilities to Saudi Arabia.

The agreement faces its first significant test following increased Houthi attacks on Saudi territory.

Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday that it had intercepted another wave of missiles and drones.

The visit is intended to reduce hostilities and support mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan, Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Public Diplomacy Raed bin Khalid Qarmali said earlier.

US-Iran confrontation

Qatari officials also visited Tehran on Sunday for talks with Iranian authorities.

• 

  Qatar pushes for Iran deal, new US strikes remain possible

Previous mediation by Qatar and Pakistan helped secure a temporary halt to hostilities, but the agreement collapsed when fighting resumed.

Indirect contacts between Tehran and Washington have continued through both mediators, a process also referenced by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of renewed military operations against Iran on Friday.

• 

  US and Iran trade new threats as diplomacy yields no breakthrough

Iranian officials have warned that any further attack would trigger a stronger response.

The diplomatic meetings come as Saudi Arabia seeks to prevent the conflict from spreading to its critical infrastructure, putting the Mecca defense pact and regional mediation efforts under growing pressure.

The Qatari team was in the Iranian capital as part of an effort coordinated with the United States to reduce regional tensions, an official briefed on the matter told Reuters.

The visit puts Doha at the center of an attempt to break a diplomatic deadlock even as the risk of renewed fighting has grown.

The urgency behind that effort was underscored by Trump himself. In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, the US president framed his options in stark terms.

“Do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off? That's the only question,” Trump said.

But Trump also left space for mediators to work. Asked separately on Sunday whether US strikes could resume that day, he said, “There will not be a strike today,” stopping short of ruling out military action later.

Messages continue despite wide gaps

Iran, for its part, is also keeping the diplomatic channel alive without signaling that it is prepared to accept Washington's terms.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Sunday that messages were continuing to pass between Iran and the United States through intermediaries and that Tehran had not closed the window on diplomacy.

At the same time, Iranian officials have accused Washington of demanding what Tehran characterizes as its “complete surrender.”

The two sides also remain divided over the terms of a broader settlement. Washington has continued to make Iran's nuclear capabilities central to any settlement. Trump told FOX 2 Detroit on Sunday that the war would not end until the United States was satisfied Tehran did not have nuclear weapons capabilities, while saying he was prepared to take time to reach an agreement.

“I'm going to make a great deal. I'm a longterm person; I'm not a short term person,” he said.

Iran's ambassador to Pakistan said on Saturday that Tehran remained willing to resume negotiations under a Pakistan-brokered interim agreement reached in June. He said Iran had offered through Islamabad to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade.

The June agreement, brokered with Qatar's help, was intended to restore shipping, end the blockade and begin negotiations toward a broader agreement addressing Iran's nuclear program.

The Iranian ambassador accused Trump of undermining the latest diplomatic effort by insisting that the blockade would remain in place.

Regional governments seek an off-ramp

The Qatari intervention follows a broader diplomatic push by regional and European governments concerned that another attack on Iran could expand the war.

Foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Britain, France, Germany and Italy met in Istanbul on Friday, where Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that renewed attacks on Iran would widen the conflict and said diplomacy remained the only way to end it.

The meetings brought together governments with different relationships with Washington and Tehran but a shared interest in preventing another round of fighting from spreading across the region.

That concern has grown as Iran has threatened retaliation against US and regional interests and attacks on commercial shipping have continued around the Strait of Hormuz.

Seven oil tankers were reported attacked or damaged by Iranian forces or naval mines in and around the strait on Friday. Despite the continuing risks, tankers have been moving oil through a US-protected corridor.

CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the US military said it had supported more than 3,000 commercial vessel transits through the waterway over the past six months and helped Persian Gulf partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer.

Cooper said the main shipping routes remained clear of mines laid by Iran's Revolutionary Guards. CENTCOM said more than 95% of vessels had passed safely in recent months despite attacks by the Guards.

The confrontation has also spread to Yemen, where renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have added to concerns over regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

Diplomacy under military pressure

The diplomatic push is therefore taking place while both sides retain significant means of pressure.

Washington continues its naval blockade of Iran while keeping open the possibility of renewed military action. Tehran, meanwhile, retains its ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and US and regional interests.

Those pressures also form part of the bargaining over a possible settlement. Tehran has linked reopening the Strait of Hormuz to an end to the US blockade, while Washington has continued to press Iran over its nuclear program, with the sequencing of concessions remaining a key obstacle.

The result is a diplomatic effort taking place under the threat of escalation rather than after that threat has receded.

For now, both sides continue to signal that an agreement remains possible. But neither has publicly indicated that it is prepared to bridge the differences that have stalled negotiations, leaving Qatar and other mediators seeking an opening while Washington and Tehran prepare for the consequences of another breakdown.