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INSIGHT

Tehran rejects US terms as hardliners push escalation

May 12, 2026, 02:42 GMT+1

Iran’s defiant response to a US proposal on ending the conflict is fueling new fears that the fragile ceasefire could collapse and fighting resume within days.

Tehran handed its response to the latest US proposal to Pakistan on Sunday for delivery to Washington. On Monday, President Donald Trump said “the ceasefire is on life support.”

The exchange has fueled growing expectations in Iranian media and political circles that another military confrontation may be approaching.

Arash, a 45-year-old engineer in Tehran, said many people were once again preparing for the possibility of war.

“Filling gasoline tanks and stocking up on food and water for emergencies has again become a priority,” he said.

Read the full article here.

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Tehran rejects US terms as hardliners push escalation

May 12, 2026, 01:35 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee

Iran’s defiant response to a US proposal on ending the conflict is fueling new fears that the fragile ceasefire could collapse and fighting resume within days.

Tehran handed its response to the latest US proposal to Pakistan on Sunday for delivery to Washington. Hours later, President Donald Trump dismissed the Iranian reply as “totally unacceptable” and warned Monday that “the ceasefire is on life support.”

The exchange has fueled growing expectations in Iranian media and political circles that another military confrontation may be approaching, even as officials insist they remain open to diplomacy on their own terms.

Arash, a 45-year-old engineer in Tehran, said many people were once again preparing for the possibility of war.

“Filling gasoline tanks and stocking up on food and water for emergencies has again become a priority,” he said.

Tehran rejects key US conditions

Iranian state-linked media strongly denied Western reports suggesting Tehran’s response included compromises on nuclear issues.

Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), rejected claims that Iran’s proposal addressed the future of its nuclear materials or enrichment activities.

Iran's state broadcaster IRIB described the American proposal as “meaning Iran’s surrender to Trump’s excessive demands.”

According to IRIB, Iran’s counterproposal emphasized compensation for war damages, recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

Former IRGC commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari said Monday that no further negotiations would take place unless Iran’s conditions were met.

Mixed signals

President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a more conciliatory tone during a meeting with senior police commanders on Sunday.

While acknowledging deep distrust toward Washington, Pezeshkian said Iran would remain committed to any agreement reached “while taking into account the concerns of the Supreme Leader and the interests of the Iranian nation.”

“The rational, logical and nationally beneficial preference is for the victory achieved by the armed forces on the battlefield to be completed in diplomacy as well,” he added.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei also said Monday that Tehran’s proposal was “reasonable and generous,” but accused Washington of continuing to insist on “unreasonable demands.”

Baghaei said Iran’s immediate priority was ending the war rather than negotiating details of the nuclear program, adding that decisions regarding “the nuclear issue, enriched materials and enrichment itself” would be announced later “at the appropriate time.”

Some hardline figures, however, are increasingly arguing that Iran should openly pursue nuclear weapons capability as a deterrent against future attacks.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said lawmakers had questioned the value of remaining in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and stressed the need to preserve Iran’s nuclear “achievements.”

Limited optimism

Despite the dominance of hardline rhetoric in official circles, online reactions suggested skepticism toward maximalist demands and calls for escalation.

Under a commentary published by Alef News listing Iran’s conditions, one reader wrote sarcastically: “Do not expect them to accept all these conditions unless you completely defeat them and even take prisoners.”

Another commented: “These are a list of wishes, and nobody is asking what they would receive in return.”

The skeptical comments drew significantly more support from readers than hardline calls for confrontation.

State television has repeatedly discussed the possibility of renewed fighting, often portraying another conflict as likely but manageable.

Reformist website Rouydad24 wrote that “the political atmosphere inside Iran is not favorable to a quick agreement,” arguing that hardline factions view any retreat as surrender while the government is trying to avoid appearing weak without securing sanctions relief.

“For now,” the outlet concluded, “the most likely scenario is not a comprehensive agreement but continued attritional negotiations combined with temporary ceasefires and crisis management—a situation that is neither full peace nor total war.”

As Iran’s economy sinks, hardliners turn to conspiracy

May 11, 2026, 22:10 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

As prices continue to soar across Iran, hardline clerics and pro-government figures are increasingly attempting to shift blame away from the state even as economic pressure deepens for ordinary citizens.

In Mashhad, firebrand Friday prayer leader Ahmad Alamolhoda claimed that “US Army infantry is responsible for rising prices.” He later said the remark was metaphorical, arguing that the war had triggered hyperinflation and that “profiteers and the main culprits behind rising prices are the US army’s infantry.”

Earlier in the week, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline daily Kayhan, wrote that “rising prices and hoarding are the products of the enemy’s infiltration in the government.”

While Iran’s armed forces were “working miracles,” he argued, the economy had been left undefended, allowing enemies to undermine battlefield gains.

Shariatmadari, who for decades attacked previous administrations over inflation and economic mismanagement, remained notably quiet during the ultraconservative governments of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ebrahim Raisi.

In 2024, he claimed rising prices had “nothing to do with the performance of the government or parliament,” describing inflation as part of a foreign conspiracy.

Last week, he questioned why parliament had stopped monitoring the government’s performance. Days later, lawmakers held an online session with Agriculture Minister Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh to discuss food prices, a move widely mocked in Iranian media as ineffective and detached from public hardship.

While Alamolhoda urged Iranians to embrace a vague “jihadist economy,” Shariatmadari called on officials to confront an unspecified “economic mafia.”

Moderate outlets, however, framed the crisis differently. The daily Arman Melli argued on Sunday that the latest surge in prices could not be explained solely by wartime conditions, pointing instead to years of structural economic problems, rising state expenditures and populist policymaking.

The paper also called for “effective use of diplomacy” to end the conflict while safeguarding national interests, arguing that renewed negotiations could help stabilize the economy.

The reformist website Rouydad24 described a society undergoing “economic and psychological erosion,” where inflation was no longer an abstract statistic but a daily reality.

Families were removing meat from their diets, patients cutting medication in half and tenants being pushed toward cheaper outskirts of major cities.

Economic newspapers described parliament’s online session as “a bitter confession” that authorities were losing control of the situation, reflected in shrinking household budgets, disappearing essentials and rising public anxiety.

Despite government claims of wage increases of up to 60 percent for workers, many public employees say they have not received the raises. Unemployment is rising, layoffs are spreading and businesses are shutting down, while temporary contracts leave many workers with little protection against dismissal.

Iranian media now report complaints about living costs even among government supporters attending nightly demonstrations. Families that once lived modest but stable lives increasingly struggle to afford housing, medical treatment, tuition and other basic necessities.

Many workers say they are still earning salaries set years ago in an economy where prices change almost daily, leaving much of Iran’s working and middle classes crushed by relentless inflation.

Iran-UAE breakdown leaves Iranian expats in limbo

May 9, 2026, 06:01 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee

The war has pushed relations between Iran and the United Arab Emirates close to rupture, disrupting one of the region’s most important commercial relationships and leaving ordinary Iranians who built lives and businesses caught in the fallout.

Hundreds of thousands of Iranians who built lives and businesses in the UAE now face visa cancellations, frozen finances and mounting uncertainty as relations between Tehran and Abu Dhabi deteriorate.

According to several affected residents, Iranian nationals who left the UAE during the recent conflict—whether for Iran or third countries—are no longer being allowed to return, even to collect their belongings. In some cases, families still inside the Emirates have reportedly been given only weeks to leave.

Many Iranian residents say they have also been instructed to transfer funds abroad and are increasingly unable to use UAE bank accounts.

While properties and businesses have not formally been confiscated, some owners can no longer manage them directly and must rely on proxies or powers of attorney to sell assets.

Foreign companies operating in the UAE are also becoming increasingly reluctant to deal with Iranian individuals or firms, particularly those connected to trade with Iran. Many export orders involving Iran have reportedly been canceled.

“No one knows what tomorrow will bring”

Reza, a 40-year-old Iranian who has lived in Dubai with his wife for more than eight years, said Iranians still inside the UAE have not yet been deported but remain under constant pressure.

“For now, our residency status in Dubai has not changed,” he said. “But my friends say Sharjah, Abu Dhabi and other emirates are cancelling visas even for Iranians who are still inside the country.”

Reza said he and his wife, a physician, have effectively lost their livelihoods despite retaining residency permits. His wife’s hospital declined to renew her contract, while his own import-export business has ground to a halt.

“My situation is very unclear,” he said. “No one knows what tomorrow will bring.”

He added that although his company’s licence has not officially been revoked, it can no longer function because trade involving Iran has effectively stopped.

“With work permits cancelled, people can no longer use their own assets,” he said. “A food wholesaler’s store has been shut down and, because he no longer has a business licence, he cannot even sell the goods sitting in his warehouse.”

According to Reza, the pressure is even greater on intermediaries accused of helping Iran circumvent sanctions by selling oil or moving funds abroad. He said many have already been expelled from the UAE and had their bank accounts frozen.

A critical trade relationship disrupted

For years, Dubai, particularly Jebel Ali port, served as one of Iran’s most important commercial gateways, handling a large share of Iranian imports and transit trade. The UAE was often Iran’s largest or second-largest trading partner after China.

That trade route now appears severely disrupted amid rising regional tensions and what Iranian media describe as a tightening maritime blockade.

The UAE said Friday it had intercepted new missile and drone attacks allegedly launched from Iran, adding that three residents were injured.

Earlier this week, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters denied carrying out attacks on the UAE but warned that any operation launched from Emirati territory against Iranian islands, ports or coastlines would receive a “crushing and regret-inducing response.”

Iranian media have meanwhile intensified criticism of Abu Dhabi. Jam-e Jam newspaper described the alleged seizure of Iranian assets as “modern-day robbery and open hostility,” while Abolfazl Khaki of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce accused the UAE of showing “maximum hostility” toward Iranian traders during the recent conflict.

“The recent experience showed that the UAE is no longer a safe place for Iranian investors,” Khaki said.

Iranian officials are now openly discussing alternative trade hubs. Nadir Pourparcham of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce said trade ties with the UAE “will never return to the way they were” and pointed to Qatar’s Hamad Port as a possible replacement. Iranian media have also promoted Pakistan’s ports as alternative corridors for Iranian trade.

The conservative outlet Mashregh News argued that Iran no longer needed “unreliable intermediaries” such as the UAE and said closer ties with China and Pakistan could help Tehran withstand economic pressure.

“It is time for Dubai to understand that Iran’s geography is not for sale,” the outlet wrote.

Ghalibaf pushes for the role many thought he already had

May 8, 2026, 18:00 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf appears to be trying to solidify his position inside Iran’s fractured post-war leadership after recent weeks exposed the limits of assumptions that he had effectively emerged as the country’s de facto ruler.

In an audio message published on May 6, Ghalibaf laid out five requests directed at Iranians at home and abroad, framing austerity, solidarity and public mobilization as essential to surviving what he described as one of the most critical periods in Iran’s contemporary history.

The intervention marked Ghalibaf’s clearest political re-emergence after a period in which hardline factions appeared to sideline him despite his elevated wartime profile.

Ghalibaf rose to prominence during the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in 2025, when he was widely seen as one of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s most trusted political figures.

After Khamenei’s death, he headed Iran’s delegation in the Islamabad talks with the United States — perhaps the clearest sign yet of his standing within the new order.

Repeated remarks by President Donald Trump hinting at regime change in Iran and suggesting that a figure from inside the system could ultimately emerge reinforced speculation abroad that Ghalibaf might become the face of a post-Khamenei transition.

But his position soon appeared less secure. Hardline critics accused him of weakness in negotiations and insufficient resistance to Western pressure, and for a period he largely retreated from public view before gradually re-emerging.

In the May 6 message, Ghalibaf urged Iranians to recognize that the country was engaged in “one of the biggest wars in Iran’s contemporary history,” arguing that enduring hardship was necessary to secure a strategic victory.

His central appeal focused on austerity, with Ghalibaf calling saving and reduced consumption “the missile the people can fire at the heart of the enemy.”

He also called for reviving mutual-aid networks similar to those formed during the COVID-19 pandemic and urged the Basij militia to return to what he described as its historic role as a neighborhood-based problem-solving force helping citizens navigate daily hardships.

The appeal contrasted sharply with the Basij’s prominent role in suppressing protests during the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom movement and the unrest of January 2026.

Ghalibaf’s final request targeted Iranians professionals and experts abroad, whom he urged to contribute ideas and resources to help manage wartime economic pressures. He encouraged expatriates not to wait for official outreach but to “force officials” to use their capabilities.

The appeal quickly drew criticism from some Iranians overseas, with users on social media arguing authorities could not simultaneously seek help from expatriates while hardliners continued threatening confiscation of assets and punitive measures against critics abroad.

Ghalibaf’s remarks came amid broader calls from establishment figures for the government to repair its relationship with the public after months of unrest, war and economic pressure.

Former government spokesman Ali Rabiei and centrist politician Mohammad Atrianfar, both former intelligence officials, have argued in recent days that the state must first reconcile with its own citizens before it can stabilize the country externally.

In an interview with Khabar Online, Atrianfar warned that failing to respond seriously to public demands risked further erosion of public trust and legitimacy, pointing specifically to internet restrictions and communication controls as symbols of the widening gap between the state and society.

The comments reflect growing concern within parts of Iran’s political establishment that war, economic hardship and repeated crackdowns have deepened public alienation, forcing even longtime insiders to speak increasingly openly about the system’s legitimacy crisis.

Tehran hails China’s support, but Beijing’s limits are showing

May 8, 2026, 04:12 GMT+1

Iranian media have welcomed Beijing’s unusually sharp rhetoric in support of Tehran, portraying recent Chinese diplomacy as evidence of a deepening strategic partnership.

Much of the coverage has focused on Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Beijing and his meetings with senior Chinese officials.

During the trip, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered some of Beijing’s strongest language to date on the conflict, condemning what he called “warmongering by the US and Israel” and warning that the region had reached a “decisive turning point.”

Iranian outlets quickly cast the remarks as evidence that China was moving closer to Tehran.

But beneath the celebratory tone lies a more complicated reality: China sees Iran as a useful junior partner, not an ally worth sacrificing its broader economic interests for.

Read the full article