Iran International wins four WAN-IFRA Middle East digital media awards

In the latest episode of the Eye for Iran podcast, host Mohamad Machine-Chian sat down with two foremost experts to dissect the fallout: Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Head of Digital News Services at Iran International and former Reuters Energy Correspondent, and Dr. Iman Naseri, Managing Director for the Middle East at FGE Dubai.

Together, they painted a picture of a region at a point of no return, where a "broken" waterway might be forcing the world to permanently look elsewhere.

Tehran’s unexpected leverage

For decades, the Islamic Republic used the threat of closing the Strait as a rhetorical deterrent. However, according to Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the actual closure in early 2026 was as much a surprise to Tehran as it was to the world. Having seen their primary deterrents – missile programs and regional proxies like Hezbollah – fail to prevent direct conflict with the US and Israel, the establishment stumbled upon a different kind of power.

"Iranians are also surprised," Sharafedin noted. "The deterrence they didn’t count on that much – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – became their most valuable card. Now, they are tying the future security of Iran to the management of Hormuz. We had the deputy speaker of the parliament saying that the Strait of Hormuz is our nuclear weapon."

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This shift in doctrine has led to a dangerous sense of triumphalism in Tehran. State-controlled media has floated the idea of imposing "transit fees" or "security taxes" on ships, much like the Suez Canal. But Sharafedin warns that this strategy is fatally short-sighted. Unlike the Suez, which is governed by an international treaty and relative predictability, the Islamic Republic’s logic defies stability. "They will try to impose their political views and preferences on this transit route," he explained. "Many shipping lines simply won't risk it."

The 'broken vase' of global energy

The economic consequences of this closure are already being felt, even if they aren't always visible in the "Brent Crude" price tag seen on news tickers. Dr. Iman Naseri pointed out that while the public looks at futures prices, the physical market has been in agony.

"The price of jet fuel was over $200 for a prolonged period," Naseri revealed. "The market is furious and frustrated. We have 12 to 14 million barrels per day of unsupplied demand. In India, many people do not have gas for cooking. The demand destruction has already happened."

This disruption has permanently changed how global powers view the Persian Gulf. Sharafedin cited comments by International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol, saying: "The Strait of Hormuz is like a broken vase. It's broken. The damage is done. It's almost impossible to put it back together." The world is no longer waiting for the Strait to reopen; it is actively building a future without it.

The exodus to alternative routes

The most immediate reaction to the blockade has been a massive surge in investment toward alternative infrastructure. Pipelines that were once considered "economically unfeasible" are now receiving emergency funding. Sharafedin noted that since the start of the conflict in February, the volume of oil transferred via alternative routes has nearly doubled, jumping from 4.2 million to 7 million barrels per day.

"Iraq recently allocated $1.5 billion for a pipeline connecting Basra to Jordan, Syria, and Turkey," Sharafedin said. This diversification isn't limited to the Middle East. Buyers like Pakistan, which relied on Kuwaiti oil for 50 years, are now sourcing crude from Nigeria, Libya, and the United States. Even China, the region's biggest customer, is accelerating its trillion-dollar pivot toward nuclear and solar energy to escape its reliance on the Hormuz bottleneck.

Regional prosperity held hostage

While the global economy may eventually adjust by finding new suppliers, the outlook for the Middle East itself is much grimmer. For the last decade, countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have tied their future prosperity to a logic of stability and foreign investment. That dream is now under direct attack.

"The Islamic Republic is single-handedly holding the region down," Sharafedin argued. He pointed out that every time the region moves toward a better future – whether through the Arab Uprisings or attracting tech giants like Amazon AWS – Tehran intervenes to sabotage the stability required for such progress. By attacking infrastructure in Fujairah and targeting tankers in the Red Sea, the regime has signaled that no alternative route is safe.

"I don't think many of those countries can now justify the investment of huge data centers," Sharafedin lamented. "Both short-term and long-term, the regional countries will pay a heavy price."

Scenarios for 2027: A prolonged limbo

As the US shifts from "Operation Epic Fury" to "Project Freedom," a new diplomatic phase is emerging, but Dr. Naseri remains skeptical of a quick fix. He outlined a base-case scenario where the market sees only a "gradual recovery" to about 60% of pre-war levels by late 2026, with the situation remaining largely flat well into 2027.

The fundamental issue, Naseri argues, is the massive gap between Washington and Tehran’s expectations. "The same regime that has not agreed to terms over the last couple of years will not suddenly do so now," he said. While a potential Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) might provide temporary "happy headlines" to calm traders, the structural reality remains one of severe disruption.

Information received by Iran International points to growing financial pressure across sectors including agriculture, fishing, retail and manufacturing after weeks of disruption linked to conflict, internet shutdowns and trade uncertainty.

The price of potassium fertilizer for a 50-kilogram sack has increased tenfold compared to last year, reaching about 70 million rials (around $40), one farmer told Iran International.

Rice farmers typically require around six sacks of fertilizer per hectare, sharply increasing cultivation costs at a time when many already struggle with falling incomes.

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  Iran taps reserves again as inflation bites and layoffs mount

The farmer added that urea fertilizer prices have also risen severalfold in recent months.

Mehdi Hosseinizadeh, head of Iran’s Association of Pesticide and Fertilizer Importers, linked the increase in fertilizer prices on Thursday to damage suffered by some petrochemical facilities during the war and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hosseinizadeh also cited rising import costs, shortages in global fertilizer markets, difficulties securing supplies from China and India, and problems related to currency allocation and import registration.

Another farmer had earlier told Iran International that the price of drip irrigation tape rose from 4 million rials ($2.25) to 30 million ($17), while fertilizer costs climbed from 8 million rials ($4.5) to more than 100 million ($57).

Drip irrigation tape is a thin polymer tube used in irrigation systems to deliver water gradually to plant roots and reduce water consumption in row crops.

Workers report layoffs and business closures

Citizens from several provinces described worsening conditions for workers and tradespeople during the ceasefire period following the conflict.

A fisherman from Qeshm island said he had been unemployed for several months and that falling prices for export fish had increased pressure on local fishermen.

Another resident from Sarbandar, Khuzestan province, described rising unemployment among port workers and shrinking household incomes.

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  Iran’s labor market cracking under layoffs and inflation

“Everything I earn goes toward rent, transportation and a small amount of food,” the resident said.

Several citizens had previously told Iran International they were selling household goods, work tools and personal belongings to cover food and basic living expenses after losing jobs and income.

One former worker from Tehran said he had been unemployed for nearly three months after beginning work in the electrical equipment market.

“My financial situation has deteriorated sharply and daily life has become difficult to endure,” he said.

A florist from Arak said the prices of supplies including paper, glue, ribbons, boxes and floral foam had quadrupled over the past two months.

Residents in Kashan also described carpet factories shutting down and laying off workers.

Shopkeepers in several parts of Tehran, also reported widespread business closures.

The largest gains have come in energy markets, where disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has sent prices swinging sharply.

European oil majors have benefited most because of their large trading arms, which profit from volatility.

BP’s first-quarter profits more than doubled to $3.2 billion after what it called an “exceptional” performance in trading, while Shell reported profits of $6.92 billion and TotalEnergies posted a nearly one-third rise to $5.4 billion.

US oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron reported lower earnings than a year earlier because of supply disruptions from the Middle East, but both still beat analysts’ forecasts and expect stronger profits as oil prices remain well above prewar levels.

Major banks have also gained from market turbulence caused by the Iran war.

JP Morgan’s trading arm reported a record $11.6 billion in revenue in the first quarter, helping deliver the bank’s second-biggest quarterly profit. Across the six largest US banks, profits reached $47.7 billion in the first three months of 2026.

Defense companies have also benefited as the war pushes governments to restock weapons and expand investment in air defense, missile defense, counter-drone systems and other military hardware.

BAE Systems – a major British supplier of fighter jet components, naval systems and military technology – said it expects strong sales and profit growth this year, citing rising global security threats and increased defense spending. Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman each reported record order backlogs at the end of the first quarter.

The war has also boosted parts of the renewable energy sector, as higher fuel prices and energy insecurity accelerate interest in alternatives.

NextEra Energy shares have risen 17% this year, while Vestas and Orsted reported stronger profits. In the UK, Octopus Energy said solar panel sales had risen 50% since the end of February.

Most affected are businesses reliant on Instagram and other global services, but even users pushed onto domestic platforms described repeated outages, poor functionality and heavy censorship on apps such as Rubika, Bale and Shad.

One citizen said Rubika often fails to send photos and videos for much of the day and alleged the platform checks users’ phone galleries. Another said uploading a single image on Rubika can take an hour.

Citizens also raised concerns that domestic applications could expose their data and devices to state monitoring.

Internet monitoring group NetBlocks said Thursday that 69 days of widespread international internet disruption in Iran had fueled unemployment among workers and redistributed wealth in favor of groups aligned with the government.

Education disrupted

Dozens of students, parents and several teachers said Shad, Iran’s state-run online education platform, does not allow users to properly download photos and videos and does not provide a suitable environment for teaching.

“The children’s classes are online, but the application is designed so only the teacher can speak,” the mother of one student said.

“If a student has a question or does not understand something, they have to wait until five in the afternoon, when student access is reopened. In reality, students are present in the online class, but even if they are absent the teacher does not notice. The entire education process depends solely on parental supervision.”

Some teachers continue to expect students to produce clips and upload them despite low internet speeds, users said.

The problem of accessing information through domestic networks has also affected university students.

A computer student in Tehran said: “Neither the online classes have quality nor can you find anything worth learning in the ‘dictatorship information network.’”

Students said online learning and access to professors’ teaching materials have effectively come to a halt.

Costly barriers

With Instagram blocked by the state, many Iranians have lost a free channel to market goods and services, while domestic apps such as Rubika and Bale charge high advertising fees and impose lengthy, censorship-driven approval processes, citizens said.

Several citizens said Rubika charges business owners about 63 million tomans, roughly $359 at the current open-market exchange rate, for 15 minutes of advertising.

She pointed to what she described as the government’s contradictory treatment of insiders and outsiders in recent months, saying the Islamic Republic used women without compulsory hijab or women with looser dress to promote pro-government nighttime gatherings during and after the war, while rejecting a short advertisement because an elbow was visible for a few seconds.

One female business owner said she was forced to advertise on a domestic app after two months without work so she could sell goods left in her inventory.

“Before approving my channel they took my money, but then rejected my ad with the excuse that my activity on the app was low and my elbow was visible in the video,” she said.

The female business owner added that when she called to ask for the advertising fee back, she was told the money would remain in her wallet until she “fixed the video and channel.”

“So I have to work on an empty channel for several months, bring in goods and invest, just for an empty channel, so maybe they will approve my ad?” she said.

“I spent eight years on Instagram and put time into building my page, but with the internet cutoff I effectively came to a halt. How am I supposed to start again?”

Another user referred to the “thousands of rules and clauses domestic apps have imposed for advertising” and said the platform took “a huge amount of money” before saying it would not advertise an “underwear channel.”

“What am I supposed to do with all this merchandise?” the user said. “Set myself on fire or burn the goods? My business was on Instagram. Restore the internet so I can go back to work.”

A user on X had earlier written that searching for “women’s underwear” on Zarebin, a search engine promoted as Iran’s domestic version of Google, leads to a “no results found” page, while searching for “men’s underwear” produces meaningful results.

“With the national internet, you cannot even buy women’s underwear. It is both ridiculous and tragic,” the user wrote.

Other users said people had turned “out of necessity” and because of the two-month internet cutoff to the Islamic Republic’s “fake” networks such as Bale and Rubika, but said it remained unclear how much access the government could gain through the platforms to citizens’ phones and whether it could monitor or surveil their devices.

Efforts to bypass censorship

Despite the imposed restrictions, users said they continue to find ways to bypass content censorship.

Several citizens said that after access to Telegram was blocked, several channels appeared on local apps such as Soroush Plus, Rubika and Bale offering free or low-cost configurations to bypass filtering.

“They nationalized the internet to gather supporters for the government, but exactly the opposite is happening,” one user said.

Users said this contrasted with content circulated by government-linked figures and channels, which they described as including false claims about the Islamic Republic winning the war with the United States and Israel, false reports of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s death and inaccurate accounts of negotiations.

One user said government-linked content on Rubika portrays the Islamic Republic as defined by “peace, friendship and human rights.”

Despite the government’s efforts to keep the platforms tightly controlled, accounts using the Lion and Sun as profile pictures have appeared. The historic Iranian national emblem is associated by many with the pre-1979 monarchy.

Other accounts have used portraits of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as profile pictures.

Citizens said such accounts, as well as channels reposting news from the outside world, are blocked and banned after some time.

Still, they said daily resistance continues, with new and larger channels replacing those that are shut down.

The Washington-based institute said imagery suggested that by late April, two eastern tunnel entrances at the site had been partially blocked with grey earthen material that could hinder rapid vehicle access and would likely require heavy equipment to clear.

The institute said the entrances had appeared unobstructed in imagery from earlier in the month.

It added that the material did not fully conceal the tunnel portals, unlike measures previously observed at tunnel entrances at Fordow and Esfahan.

The institute said the activity raised “significant questions” because the deeply buried complex could potentially be used to store sensitive equipment or materials.

It also noted that older tunnel portals linked to a separate complex dating back to 2007 at Pickaxe Mountain had earlier this year been buried and reinforced with concrete, which analysts said could suggest equipment or material had been moved into the tunnels.