Trump says Middle East closer than ever to freedom from Iranian terror
At the FII Priority Summit in Miami on Friday President Trump said Iran is no longer the bully of the Middle East after 47 years.
At the FII Priority Summit in Miami on Friday President Trump said Iran is no longer the bully of the Middle East after 47 years.







Washington’s sanctions waiver, introduced during the Iran war to ease oil supply pressure, is channeling discounted crude away from China and toward India, strengthening energy ties with New Delhi.
In response to Operation Epic Fury, Tehran turned to asymmetric leverage, relying on its capacity to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and drive up global oil prices.
Anticipating market volatility, the US Treasury issued a targeted sanctions waiver designed to stabilize oil markets while preserving financial pressure on Tehran.
Yet as the waiver framework evolved from an India-specific mechanism into a more generalized policy, it continued in practice to serve Indian refiners, redirecting sanctioned crude away from China and toward India.
The Russian test case
On March 5, Treasury issued a waiver allowing Indian refiners — IOC, BPCL, HPCL, and Reliance Industries — to purchase already-produced Russian crude cargoes that were on the water.
When Treasury expanded the waiver on March 12–13, Indian refiners remained the only significant buyers of the authorized Russian barrels. The expansion continued to apply only to cargoes already on the water, did not restore formal banking channels, and did not lift underlying sanctions.
Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury official, described General License U as authorizing “the commodity transaction; it says nothing about payment.” The license permits the sale of oil but does not restore banking access or create a formal payment channel. That distinction allowed trade in physical barrels while preserving financial pressure.
The Iranian extension
The March 20 application of the same waiver model to roughly 170 million barrels of Iranian crude floating offshore replicated the policy — and once again, India remained the only swing buyer.
Reliance Industries, the largest Indian public company, purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude at a $7 premium to Brent. The same Indian refiners, IOC, BPCL, and HPCL, reportedly plan to resume purchases.
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said Iranian crude often remains unsold until reaching Asian discharge zones such as Singapore or Malaysia. Because many cargoes were already produced but waiting for buyers, releasing them under the waiver had immediate supply effects. He added: “Now that India has entered as a competitor, the price in China will most likely increase.”
In effect, India’s participation disrupted China’s near-monopsony over sanctioned Iranian crude — reshaping pricing leverage without formally lifting sanctions.
Before 2019, Indian refiners imported roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude under contracts with National Iranian Oil Company. They retain the technical configuration and commercial familiarity to scale quickly within short waiver windows. That institutional memory gives Washington a ready-made alternative buyer base whenever it chooses to recalibrate supply pressure.
India’s strategic ascent
India’s admission into the Pax Silica, formalized on February 20, placed it within the US-led supply-chain initiative focused on reducing dependence on China in semiconductor and AI production. As Under Secretary Jacob Helberg said: "Pax Silica is really not about China, it is about America. We want to secure our supply chains. We view India as a partner to help de-risk and diversify those supply chains."
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel on February 25–26, where the two countries elevated ties to a “special strategic partnership.” Two days later, Operation Epic Fury began.
The new world order
Early in President Trump’s second term, Washington sought to reshape the global order. India was expected to become a counterweight to China, and Iran was given a chance for realignment. Neither objective materialized at the outset. India’s role remained limited, negotiations with Iran collapsed, and a 12-day war followed. Trade and tariff disputes further complicated the restructuring effort.
Washington’s tactical support of India’s energy role may carry implications beyond temporary oil supply management. Pax Silica realigns industrial supply chains; the waiver framework redirects sanctioned energy flows. Together, they position India within the technological and commodity axes of great-power competition.
This suggests a second, more structured attempt to reshape the global order. With India onboard, the decisive variable becomes whether Operation Epic Fury generates sufficient leverage to push Iran away from its long-standing partnerships with Beijing and Moscow. A realignment toward Washington could be the tipping point in the consolidation of this new order.
Iran launched a missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base on Friday that damaged several US Air Force refueling tankers, The Wall Street Journal reported citing US and Saudi officials.
The attack also involved unmanned aircraft, marking a further escalation in the war between Iran and US‑led forces, the report said.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement warned on Friday it could intervene militarily if the United States and Israel expand their campaign against Iran and allied groups in the region, according to a statement published on its Telegram channel.
The group, which refers to itself as the Yemeni Armed Forces, called for an immediate halt to what it described as US and Israeli “aggression” against Iran, as well as against Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq, saying the conflict risks destabilizing the region and global economy.
The Houthis said they were prepared for direct military action under several conditions, including if other countries join US- and Israeli-led operations against Iran, or if the Red Sea is used for attacks on Iran or other regional actors.

Iran’s recent attempted strike on a joint UK–US military base in the Indian Ocean, some 4,000 km from its territory, marks more than an escalation — it is a wake-up call for the West, experts told Iran International.
On March 20, Iran fired two long-range ballistic missiles at the Diego Garcia base, a target long considered beyond its declared range of around 2,000 kilometers.
Iran’s attempted long-range strike — which US officials say did not hit its target — marks the first time Tehran has demonstrated the ability to reach as far as Diego Garcia.
For years, Iran claimed its missile range was capped at around 2,000 kilometers. That claim now appears increasingly untenable.
The attempted strike exposes a reality that can no longer be ignored, experts told this week's episode of Eye for Iran: Tehran’s missile capabilities extend far beyond the Middle East, its hardened arsenal has withstood sustained US and Israeli strikes, and the conflict is now colliding with critical global pressure points — from the Strait of Hormuz to the growing likelihood of a broader military phase.
A threat no longer abstract
Iran’s ballistic missile threat is no longer abstract — it is real and expanding.
Both Janatan Sayeh, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), and Farzin Nadimi, a defense and military expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, warned on the Eye for Iran podcast that Tehran’s capabilities now extend far beyond previously stated limits — potentially reaching as far as the United Kingdom.
“This should not come as a surprise,” Sayeh said. He noted that Iranian missiles and drones have already been used on European soil through Russia.
“The difference now is that the regime itself can launch them directly from Iranian territory," said Sayeh.
The shift marks a critical evolution — from indirect projection of force to direct long-range capability — underscoring the growing reach of Iran’s arsenal.
Even if unsuccessful, the Diego Garcia strike signals a move from regional containment to global reach — with direct implications for Europe and beyond.
In his State of the Union address last month, President Donald Trump cautioned that Iran’s missile program could soon put the United States within reach — a claim that, in light of recent developments, is no longer theoretical.
Missile cities: A durable arsenal
That expanded reach is underpinned by an infrastructure designed not just to deter — but to endure.
Nadimi said Iran has long possessed the technical ability to extend the range of its missiles, including through payload modification and dual-use space-launch technology.
More significantly, he described a vast network of hardened underground facilities — some “the size of a small city” — buried deep beneath mountainous terrain and reinforced structures, making them extraordinarily difficult to destroy.
These so-called “missile cities” are often positioned near — and in some cases beneath — civilian infrastructure, including residential neighborhoods and public spaces, complicating targeting while increasing their survivability.
“Many of these missile bases are so deep that even the most powerful bunker-buster bombs cannot reach them… some are as deep as 500 meters and the size of a small city," Nadimi told Eye for Iran.
Strait of Hormuz: Global Stakes
The implications extend far beyond military capability.
The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes — has emerged as a central pressure point in the conflict.
Disruptions tied to the war have already rattled global energy markets, with prices reacting to uncertainty around shipping routes and potential escalation.
Joel Rubin, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Obama administration, warned on Eye for Iran that Iran’s actions reflect a broader strategic calculus.
“This is how Iran behaves,” he said. “They are willing to disrupt and destroy the global economy to protect themselves.”
Dr. Walid Phares, foreign policy expert, advisor to past US presidents and author, described the Strait not as a theoretical chokepoint, but as an active military theater — where Iranian missile systems along the coastline could trigger direct US intervention to secure global shipping lanes.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the United States would reopen the Strait “with or without” allied support — underscoring the scale of the economic stakes.
“Which tells me that ground forces, limited special forces, Marines, now we understand, may be used," said Phares, author of Iran: An Imperialist Republic and US Policy.
Talks as strategy, not solution
Even as diplomatic efforts continue, both sides appear to be using negotiations as part of a broader strategic game.
Rubin pointed to a narrowing political and economic window in Washington, suggesting the US is unlikely to sustain prolonged negotiations as domestic pressure builds.
Phares also framed talks not as a pathway to de-escalation, but as part of a parallel track where diplomacy unfolds alongside active military preparation.
In this environment, negotiations are not replacing escalation — they are occurring within it.
Toward escalation: troops and targets
On the ground, signs of a deeper military phase are becoming more pronounced.
The Pentagon is weighing sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal and Axios — a move that would significantly expand US combat presence in the region.
The deployment would include infantry and armored units, adding to thousands of Marines and paratroopers already moving into position.
Officials say forces could be staged within striking distance of Iran, including near Kharg Island, a critical oil export hub that handles the vast majority of the country’s crude exports.
Military planners are also reportedly developing options for a “final blow,” including a large-scale bombing campaign and the potential use of ground forces.
No final decision has been made — but the scale and positioning of forces point toward preparation, not restraint.
A region already shifting
At the same time, regional dynamics are beginning to shift.
The United Arab Emirates has publicly warned — in a Wall Street Journal op-ed by its ambassador to Washington — that a simple ceasefire is not enough, signaling growing alignment among US partners around the need for a more decisive outcome.
In Lebanon — long considered firmly within Iran’s sphere of influence — mounting pressure on Hezbollah, moves to marginalize IRGC influence, and the withdrawal of Iran’s ambassador from Beirut point to potential cracks in Tehran’s regional posture.
For many observers, the attempted strike toward Diego Garcia marks a turning point because of what it revealed: the range and the probable intent, all are now visible.
Russia is sending a shipment of drones to Iran, including upgraded versions of technology that Tehran originally supplied to Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine, US and European officials told The Associated Press on Friday.
"Russian and Iranian officials have had “very active” discussions this month regarding transferring drones from Russia to Iran, the European intelligence official told AP," the report said.
"A US defense official said it is unclear if the shipment is a one-time delivery or part of a series. Neither official could say how significant the delivery is or how many drones were sent," the report added. "Another European official said a small number of drones would not have a major impact on the outcome of the war. All the officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters."