The current trajectory of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic is rapidly weakening the regime, said Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi, CEO of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, an influential body that advises the Israeli government on security matters.
“It’s a matter of weeks until the US and Israel will assess that this regime is weak enough,” Avivi told Eye for Iran podcast.
“And then there will be a call to the Iranian people to go to the streets and take over the country.”
“And when they will do that,” he added, “above their heads, there will be Israeli drones and American capabilities defending them from the air — and any attempt to hit the Iranian people will be met by an attack.”
From containment to collapse
Avivi described the war as unfolding in stages — from Hamas, to Hezbollah, to the fall of Assad's Syria and the Houthis — and now entering what he called its decisive phase: Iran itself.
Earlier stages focused on weakening those forces. Now, he said, the objective has shifted.
“This is about bringing down the Iranian regime.”
He pointed to the scale of the ongoing campaign, saying tens of thousands of targets have been struck, including air defenses, missile systems and naval assets — alongside sustained pressure on the regime’s internal enforcement arms.
“We are now attacking in Tehran Basij forces who are standing in junctions, monitoring society,” he said. “We’re dismantling all the Basij bases and the Revolutionary Guards.”
Breaking the regime’s grip
According to Avivi, the key to creating conditions for an uprising lies in dismantling the regime’s ability to control and repress its population.
“It’s about destroying the command and control of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij forces,” he said. “Eliminating their motivation to fight.”
He said there are already signs of strain within the system.
“We see defection in many units. Some units you have 90 percent defection,” Avivi said.
At the same time, he pointed to deepening economic pressure.
“There is a siege on Iran. They are not trading. How long can a country continue with no import, no export?” he said. “The currency is broken… it’s obvious where this is going.”
Larijani’s killing sends a signal
Avivi said the killing of Ali Larijani sends a clear message about the endgame — rejecting any scenario in which figures from within the Islamic Republic remain in power under a rebranded system.
He said the issue had come up directly in a recent high-level conversation.
“I met this week with a very, very prominent diplomat who asked me at length whether maybe Larijani will be the solution,” Avivi said — referring to the idea that a figure seen by some as more “moderate” could emerge as a compromise.
Avivi dismissed that notion outright.
“The guy is not moderate at all — not at all,” he said.
He argued that targeting Larijani underscores a broader objective.
“None of these leaders in this vicious regime can be rulers the day after,” he said. “Iran needs completely different leadership… a more open, more liberal country.”
He framed the strategy as one in which Israel and the United States set the conditions — but the decisive moment must come from within.
“Changing the regime is up to the Iranian people,” he said.
Signs of strain — but not collapse yet
That assessment is partially echoed by investigative journalist David Patrikarakos, who told Eye for Iran that sources describe a regime under pressure, with its security apparatus showing signs of disarray.
“They paint a picture of a regime in disarray,” he said, citing what he described as the “surgical decapitation” of layers of the security structure.
But he cautioned that internal fractures remain limited for now.
“We’re hearing reports… in the dozens… of people being killed for disobeying orders, people trying to defect,” he said. “I’ve not been told that it’s on a big scale.”
Patrikarakos said the real test will come later.
“To judge the success of this campaign, we’ve got to see what happens when the shooting stops — and what happens inside Iran.”
Washington’s next phase: the nuclear question
Investigative journalist Jay Solomon said sources in Washington suggest the next phase may focus on ensuring Iran cannot rebuild its nuclear program.
That includes concern over highly enriched uranium believed to be hidden in deeply buried sites such as Pickaxe Mountain.
“If they really decide they want to go in and secure that material, I don’t think there’s any other way,” Solomon said — referring to the possibility of US special forces entering underground facilities, an operation he described as “extremely dangerous.”
He also pointed to potential operations targeting Kharg Island, a key oil export hub tied to IRGC revenues.
But Solomon raised a critical concern: what comes after military success.
“The military side has been planned,” he said. “The post-conflict side is still very much up in the air… and that’s a concern.”
Despite those uncertainties, Avivi was unequivocal about where he believes events are heading.
“I foresee a change of regime,” he said. “This regime is not going to stay.”
And for Avivi, the broader objective goes far beyond Iran itself.
“The goal is clear,” he said. “To dismantle our enemies and change completely the Middle East for generations to come.”
